Scotland's Devolved Employment Services: statistical summary November 2021

Fair Start Scotland (FSS)

Introduction

Fair Start Scotland is the Scottish Government's devolved employability support service, and aims to help those further from the labour market to move into and sustain fair work. FSS launched on 3 April 2018 with funding to support up to 38,000 people into work over an initial three year referral period to end March 2021. In response to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, referral into the service has been extended to March 2023.

FSS provides individualised one-to-one support to unemployed people who face the greatest challenges to obtaining work, including people with a disability or health condition, people with convictions, care-experienced young people, single parents, refugees, ethnic minorities, and people who live in some of the most deprived areas in Scotland. More information about the service can be found here.

Fair Start Scotland is delivered by a mixed economy of public, private and third sector providers across nine geographical areas throughout Scotland. Potential participants can engage with Fair Start Scotland in a variety of ways. A referral can be made by an individual's Jobcentre Plus (JCP) Work Coach. Alternatively, participants can be signposted to Fair Start Scotland through third party organisations or they can self-refer to their local provider if they meet specific criteria. Third-party referrals relate to referrals from outwith JCP.

After a referral is made, the participant is matched with a provider in their local area. The provider makes contact and offers an introduction in which the service is fully explained. The participant is then given the necessary information to engage with Fair Start Scotland.

How many people have joined FSS?

There were 58,811 referrals to FSS between its launch in April 2018 and the end of September 2021. Of the total referrals to FSS, 39,147 went on to start receiving employability support. This includes 1,338 people who have already been supported by Fair Start Scotland^[4].

Referrals and starts have decreased from the high level seen in the previous quarter, but remain high compared to levels seen in recent years, and especially when compared to the lower numbers of referrals and starts seen in the quarters after the first lockdown (April – June 2020 onwards, see Background Information section on the impact of COVID-19). Referrals have fallen by 7% to 4,850 this quarter and starts have decreased by 6% to 3,221. Compared to the equivalent quarter last year, referrals have risen 34% and starts have increased 20%.

The Scottish Government's evaluation of the third year of the service was published in October 2021^[5] - with accompanying statistics tables published at the same time^[6]. It showed that compared to the unemployed population of Scotland there were some groups that were under-represented in FSS in year 3: women, people from minority ethnic backgrounds, people from the youngest (16-24) and oldest (50-64) age bands, while a higher proportion of disabled people and people aged 25-34 used the service. For gender, ethnic group and disability, this pattern was also true for year 1^[7] and year 2^[8]. For age there was a change – all younger age groups (16-34, rather than just 16-24) were under represented and older groups were over represented before year 3.

Further explanation on the changes to proportions of these groups using the service follows below. The breakdown of equalities groups for FSS is shown in Figure 3.

Overall, 38% of people who have joined FSS were women and 62% were men. The proportion of women in FSS increased from years 1 to 3: from 35% in year 1, to 37% in year 2 and 40% in year 3. In the most recent quarter of year 4 (July – September 2021), 40% of participants were women.

The most common age group of people joining FSS was 35-49 years (28% of people), followed by 50 years old and over and 25-34 years (both 25%), and 16-24 years (20%).

Over the course of years 1 to 3, there was an increase in the proportion of participants from the younger age bands (16-34), and a decrease in the older age bands (35+). Participants aged 35 and over made up 60% of all starts in year 1, 52% in year 2, 47% in year 3. There was an increase in the proportion of older (35+) participants in the first half of year 4, to 57%, mainly due to an increase in participants aged 50+, from 21% in January – March 2021 to 28% in July – September 2021. Participants aged 16-34 made up 38% of all starts in year 1, 44% in year 2, and 53% in year 3. In the first half of year 4, 42% of participants were 16-34. This drop is primarily due to a decrease in 16-24 year old participants, from 23% in January – March 2021 to 16% in July – September 2021.

Overall, 5% of people who have joined FSS were from minority ethnic backgrounds and 70% were white, with ethnicity unknown for the remaining 25% of participants. In the most recent quarter, 6% of participants were from a minority ethnic group and 75% of participants were white. Monitoring changes to the proportion of minority ethnic participants over time is difficult due to the percentage being low and high proportion of unknowns, and there is ongoing work to improve data quality and collection^[9]. In year 1, 4% of participants were minority ethnic, 6% in year 2, 4% in year 3, and 6% so far in year 4.

44% of people joining FSS reported a disability. The proportion of disabled participants decreased between years 1 to 3: from 55% in year 1, to 44% in year 2, and 32% in year 3^[10]. In year 4 it increased once more to levels similar to year 2: 45% in April – June 2021, and 43% in the most recent quarter.

Overall, 63% of people joining FSS reported having a long-term health condition, 30% reported no long-term health condition, with the rest (7%) unknown. In the most recent quarter of year 4, 57% of people reported a long-term health condition, 34% did not, and for 9% this was unknown.

These breakdowns are for starts, not unique individuals, and do not exclude people who have previously been on FSS

Figure 4 shows that the most common type of long-term health condition reported was mental health (34%). Between year 1 and 2 there was a 5 percentage point increase in people reporting a mental health condition among those joining FSS, from 31% to 36%. This remained at 36% in year 3, but decreased to 30% in both of the first two quarters of year 4.

The second most commonly reported type of health condition was a long-term illness, disease or condition, which affected 17% of people joining FSS and has remained close to this level over time. In the most recent quarter, the proportion was 16%.

A physical disability was the third most common type of long-term health condition reported. The number of people reporting a physical disability has varied over time from 14% in year 1, to 10% in year 2, 6% in year 3, and 8% in the most recent quarter (July – September 2021).

These breakdowns are for starts, not unique individuals, and do not exclude people who have previously been on FSS

How many people left FSS early?

Someone is defined as having left FSS early (an 'early leaver') if they leave FSS before the end of the pre-employment support period and without having sustained employment for at least 3 months. The pre-employment support period usually lasts for up to 1 year. In some cases, it can last up to 18 months, but this has only applied to a small number of people so far.

Overall, 16,672 people have left FSS early. As with job outcomes, as time goes on we get a more complete picture of the numbers of people staying on FSS or leaving early. Where we have a complete picture^[11] 49% of people left the service early. There has been a reduction over time – 53% of participants who joined in year 1 left early, and 46% of participants who joined in year 2 left early.

Figure 5 shows that the percentage of people leaving early does not have large differences for most of the equalities groups. However, the percentage was higher for those reporting a disability, particularly for those who have a long-term health condition that limits daily activities a lot (54% left early). The proportion of people leaving early was lower for those who had a long-term health condition that did not limit daily activities at all (44%). Younger participants also had higher rates of leaving early: 52% of those 16-24, compared with 46% of those 50+.

How many people entered and sustained employment?

A total of 13,204 people who joined FSS have started a job.

COVID-19 has had an impact on the operation of FSS as well as the labour market context^[13] (see background notes for more information). This has had an impact on job starts within FSS, though there is not a simple explanation for changes.

Figure 6 shows changes in FSS job starts since July 2019. Since COVID-19 restrictions began in March 2020 this has shown a lot of variation. There was a reduction in job starts from April 2020 after the first lockdown in Scotland followed by a large increase peaking in August 2020. A high level of job starts remained until November followed by a large drop in December 2020, with low levels of job starts seen through to February 2021. Some of the December decrease was likely to be seasonal, as decreases were also seen in 2018 and 2019. Levels of job starts rose again in March 2021, reaching a peak of 552 jobs in May 2021 before falling again afterwards, with between 375 and 455 job starts each month in the last quarter. However, figures for recent months are likely to increase in future publications as there can be a delay between a participant starting a job and it being recorded by service providers.

Of the 13,204 people who started work, 8,175 had sustained employment for at least 3 months (13 weeks), 5,660 sustained employment for at least 6 months (26 weeks), and 3,441 sustained employment for at least 12 months (52 weeks), as of September 2021.

Job outcome rates can only be reported for start cohorts where enough time has passed in pre-employment support and for outcomes to be achieved. These show:

• most people who started FSS did not enter work or go on to sustain employment: 36% started a job, 25% sustained employment for 3 months, 19% sustained employment for 6 months, and 15% sustained employment for 12 months^[14]
• however, high levels of those starting jobs sustain them: 70% of people starting jobs went on to sustain employment for 3 months, 78% of the people who sustained employment for 3 months went on to reach 6 months, and 77% of those who sustained employment for 6 months went on to reach at least 12 months

Figures 7, 8, 9 and 10 show how the rates of job starts and outcomes compare between different equality groups.

The rates of job starts do not show a large difference by gender, though slightly higher rates of outcomes were achieved by women. For both men and women, 36% started a job. 3 month job outcomes were achieved by 26% of women and 24% of men, 6 month job outcomes were achieved by 20% of women and 18% of men, and 12 month outcomes were achieved by 16% of women and 14% of men.

The biggest differences in job start and outcomes rates were observed in age and long-term health conditions, which are often related. 40% of 16-24 year olds started work after joining FSS, compared with 32% of those aged 50 plus – a difference of 8 percentage points. Differences are also seen in the proportions of people sustaining employment at 3 months (26% for 16-24; 22% for 50+), 6 months (20% and 17%) and 12 months (16% and 13%).

24% of those with a long-term health condition that limited daily activities a lot went on to start work, compared to 44% of those with a health condition that did not limit daily activities. The difference between these two groups was also observed in the proportions of people sustaining employment at 3 months (17% for those limited a lot, and 30% for those not limited at all), 6 months (14% and 23%) and 12 months (11% and 17%).

37% of minority ethnic participants went on to start work, compared to 35% of white participants. Small differences are seen for 3 month outcomes (25% for minority ethnic participants; 24% for white participants) and 6 month outcomes (20% and 19%), with a larger difference seen for 12 month outcomes (19% and 15%).