Scotland's Devolved Employment Services: statistical summary May 2022

No One Left Behind (Experimental Statistics)

Introduction

No One Left Behind is a strategy for placing people at the centre of the design and delivery of employability services. The transition to this new approach, delivered through a partnership agreement between Scottish and Local Government, commenced on 1 April 2019.

The No One Left Behind approach moves away from funding and delivering a number of separate and distinct employability programmes, to a more flexible approach. Scottish and Local Government are working with third and private sector to deliver support which aims to be more joined-up and responsive to the needs of individuals of all ages and to local labour market conditions.

Since April 2019, a range of Scottish Government funding has been made available to Local Government partners as the scope of delivery under No One Left Behind expands over time. This includes funding for the initial phase of No One Left Behind, from April 2019, the Parental Employability Support Fund, from February 2020, and the Young Person's Guarantee, from November 2020. Since February 2022, the experimental statistics in this publication have included people supported by the totality of these funds. The funding aims to provide support for people of all ages, with a range of differing characteristics and circumstances, including parents, who need help on their journey towards work.

Note that the experimental statistics in this publication relate only to Scottish Government funded activity and do not report on the entirety of employability related activity in each local authority area.

The support provided may vary from short, focused interventions or longer term support, dependent upon individual circumstances. Participants can access the support they require on an ongoing basis and can engage and disengage at times that best suit their needs. Individuals can self-refer to No One Left Behind support, or be referred through a variety of channels, including educational providers, local authorities, third sector organisations, Jobcentre Plus, and other local services.

Reach of services: How many people accessed employability support delivered under No One Left Behind?

A total of 16,859 people started receiving support in the two and three quarter year period from April 2019 to December 2021.^[32] The number of people starting to receive support has steadily increased over time; 2,739^[33] people started in year 1 (April 2019 – March 2020), 4,891 in year 2 (April 2020 – March 2021) and 9,229 in the first three quarters of year 3 (April 2021 – December 2021) which was more than the overall total numbers supported in years 1 and 2. The national lockdown in Scotland took effect on 23 March 2020, at the end of year 1, and therefore any effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to only be seen from year 2 onwards.

Almost three quarters (73%) of all participants were aged under 25. Of these 12,297 participants, 73% were aged 15-19 and 27% were aged 20-24. Over a quarter (27%) of all participants were aged 25 or over. Of these 4,520 participants, 77% were aged 25-49 and 23% aged 50 or over. Age was unknown for less than 1% of participants.

The number of people accessing support has varied over time across age groups (Figure 11), with a generally increasing trend from the start of year 2 (April – June 2020). Large increases occurred in both the under 25 and 25 and over age groups between the first (April – June 2020) and second (July – September 2020) quarters of year 2, and then again between the third (October – December 2020) and last (January – March 2021) quarters of year 2. Here, the near doubling of numbers seen in the under 25 age group (from 773 in October – December 2020 to 1,446 in January – March 2021) corresponds with the introduction of additional funding to support young people in late 2020. After another relatively large increase to 2,173 in the first quarter of year 3 (April – June 2021), numbers have reduced slightly (n=2,049) in the latest quarter (October - December 2021). The 25 and over age group also increased, from 623 (January – March 2021) to 822 (April – June 2021), peaking at 999 in the most recent quarter (October to December 2021).

Of the 16,859 people who started to receive support during the first two and three quarter years (April 2019 – December 2021) (Figure 12), the gender split was fairly even, with slightly fewer women (44%) than men (56%). Gender was unknown for less than 1% of participants. The proportion of women increased from 40% in year 1 to 47% in year 2 before falling to 44% over the first three quarters of year 3. There was a lower proportion of women in both the younger (15-19, 38% and 20-24, 41%) and older (50+, 38%) age groups. However, there was a greater proportion of women in the mid age groups (25-34, 63% and 35-49, 64%).

The overall proportion of participants across the period April 2019 to December 2021 that were from minority ethnic groups was 5%. However, there were differences in this proportion in younger and older age groups; with minority ethnic participants being higher in those aged 25 and over (10%) compared with those under 25 (3%). Overall, the proportion of minority ethnic participants increased slightly over time, from 2% in April to June 2019 to a high of 7% in April to June 2020, with 6% of participants from minority ethnic groups in the latest quarter, October to December 2021. This increase was largely driven by the 25 and over age group, with fluctuations in the proportion of participants from minority ethnic groups over the earlier quarters and 10% of participants from minority ethnic groups in the latest quarter. These figures should be used with caution as some percentages are based on very small numbers.

15% of all participants accessing support over the period April 2019 to December 2021 reported having a disability and the proportion was the same for both participants aged under 25 and those aged 25 and over, with 15% reporting a disability over the period. The proportion of all participants reporting a disability initially fell, from a high of 18% in April to June 2019 to a low of 10% in July to September 2020. From October to December 2020 onwards, overall the proportion of participants reporting a disability has risen, with 15% of all participants reporting a disability in the latest quarter. The proportion of under 25s reporting a disability also initially decreased, from 18% in April to June 2019 to a low of 10% in July to September 2020. In the most recent quarter, 14% of participants aged under 25 reported having a disability. The proportion of those aged 25 and over reporting a disability fell from a high of 21% in October to December 2019 to a low of 8% in April to June 2020. From July to September 2020 onwards, the proportion of those aged 25 and over reporting a disability increased to a high of 16% in both January to March 2020 and October to December 2020 (the latest quarter).^[34] These figures should be used with caution as some percentages are based on very small numbers.

Parents

Please note that parents are a sub group of participants supported during the period April 2020 to December 2021 (year 2 and the first 3 quarters of year 3)^[36] and so the number of parents is not additional to the number of under 25s and those aged 25 and over. Rather they are distributed across age groups, with 18% being aged under 25 and 82% aged 25 and above.

Of the 14,120 people who started to receive support during this period (April 2020 – December 2021), 2,872 (20%) were parents. The number of parents have in general steadily increased across the period (Figure 13) to a high of 665 parents in the most recent quarter; more parents were supported in the first 3 quarters of year 3 (n=1,863) than over the whole of year 2 (n=1,009).^[37]

Parents as a proportion of all people starting to receive support has fluctuated somewhat over the period; rising from 10% in July to September 2020 to 25% during the period October 2020 to March 2021, with a slight decrease to 22% in the latest quarter. This decrease in more recent quarters might partly be explained by the increasing number of young people being supported; only 18% of parents supported under No One Left Behind are aged under 25.

The breakdown of equalities groups for parents is shown in Figure 14. The majority of parents are aged 35-49 years (40%) and this has been consistently true over the April 2020 - December 2021 time period. The proportion of parents was lowest for the youngest (16-19 year olds, 3%) and oldest (over 50 years, 7%) age groups.

The gender difference is more pronounced in the parent subgroup (79% female) than all participants (44% female). Females outweigh males considerably in the parent subgroup across the period; however the proportion of male parents accessing support has generally increased over time, from 12% in July to September 2020 to 24% in both July to September and October to December 2021 (the latest quarter), leaving aside a dip during April to June 2021.

11% of parents accessing support were from minority ethnic groups. The proportion fell to a low of 6% in October – December 2020 and since then steadily rose to peak at 13% during July to September 2021. In the latest quarter, 12% of parents accessing support were from minority ethnic groups.

14% of parents reported having a disability and this proportion has remained fairly stable over time, dipping slightly at 12% in the January to March 2021 period before increasing to a high of 15% in July to September 2021 and dropping to 13% in the latest quarter.

Overall, just over two thirds (64%) of parents supported were single parents and this is the same for both the year 2 average and year 3 so far. 14% of parents were mothers under 25.

42% of all parents had one child, 30% had two children, 24% had three or more children, with number of children unknown in 4% of cases. Whilst there has been some variation across the period the pattern is broadly similar, parents with one child represent the greatest proportion of all parents in each period, with the exception of April – June 2020, (34% of all parents had two children, compared to 33% with one child). The proportion of parents with two children has risen slightly in year 3 so far (32%) compared to the year 2 average (27%).

14% of all parents had a youngest child aged under 12 months. This proportion has increased from 10% in year 2 to 16% over the first 3 quarters of year 3. The latest quarter (October – December 2021) saw the highest proportion, at 19%.

11% of all parents had a disabled child within their family, with status unknown in 6% of cases. Similarly, the proportion of parents with a disabled child within the family has increased between year 2 (9%; 6% unknown) and year 3 so far (12%; 6% unknown).

Shared Measurement Framework (SMF)

The first SMF publication was released in April 2022.^[39] The initial data recommendations built on existing data collection practice and activity currently in place between Local and Scottish government, and formalised a number of key data items which we currently collect^[40] on the theme of 'progression'. Therefore, it is an appropriate time to start to publish experimental statistics based on that data, aligned to the progression theme.

The flexible, person-centred support No One Left Behind seeks to put in place means that participants may experience support differently, based on their individual circumstances and needs – for example, being able to disengage and reengage in support as required. As a result, participant journeys will differ in nature and pace, and progression and achievements will vary based on what a positive outcome for the individual would be. This means broadening our understanding of success from a focus on job outcomes to that on the actual steps taken and progress made towards work.

The SMF publication is not a final product and more work is required to develop certain areas and themes. We will gradually develop and align our statistics reporting to the recommendations made by the Framework over time. They will be particularly important to help us understand the journeys and achievements of those who are furthest away from the labour market and to develop the range of data that we publish. The experimental statistics presented here on the progression of participants supported by No One Left Behind represent the first step in that process.

We first published statistics on the achievements of those supported by No One Left Behind in February 2021 for year 1 participants, derived from the aggregate data that was collected during that period. Since then we have developed year 1 data and combined it with data currently collected for subsequent periods, which has allowed us to provide more detailed information for year 1 participants, including their achievements.^[41]

Progression of participants: What are the achievements of those supported by No One Left Behind so far?

Of the 16,859 people supported under the No One Left Behind approach between April 2019 and December 2021, 5,224 people (31%) started employment. Of those that started employment; 2,722 people (52%) were supported by a subsidy to do so and 832 people (16%) started modern apprenticeships. Additionally, 2,521 people supported (15%) entered further or higher education or training,^[42] 1,500 people (9%) gained a qualification and 893 people (5%) started work experience opportunities.

Developing these statistics

We continue to publish data on people receiving employability support delivered under the No One Left Behind strategic approach. Publishing these statistics will contribute to understanding the impact of the approach, by providing information over time about participant journeys and achievements.

As part of our plans to develop these statistics, in this publication we have expanded the scope of our data to include the achievements of those people who are receiving employability support delivered under the No One Left Behind approach. This has been possible as a result of the development of the previously limited year 1 data, as described earlier.

As delivery under No One Left Behind is expanded over time (see the Delivery Plan) and we learn more about which data are important to report on to describe the journeys of the people who receive support, we will develop a range of statistics that are appropriate. Whilst we expect to produce some statistics that are similar to those for FSS, the range of data that we use and how we present them is likely to change and evolve over time, building a picture of the whole user journey. As already described, a key product to help us realise that ambition will be the Shared Measurement Framework.

Feedback

To ensure the statistics are developed in a way which is useful to users, we will be asking for views on a range of topics as the development work described above is taken forward. If you have comments or questions in the meantime please contact: employabilitydata@gov.scot.