Scotland's Devolved Employment Services: statistical summary November 2020

Fair Start Scotland (FSS)

How many people have joined FSS? 

41,007 people were referred to FSS between its launch in April 2018 and the end of September 2020. 

COVID-19 had an impact on the referral process into FSS as the DWP paused referrals in March – June 2020 (see Introduction section). This will explain some of the drop in referrals in the previous quarter, illustrated in Figure 1 below. Referrals in July – September 2020 were 38% higher than April – June 2020, but were 17% lower than July – September 2019.

Of the total number of people referred to FSS, 27,076 went on to receive employability support services. Since the start of FSS, there has been an increase in the start rate, the proportion of people referred who decide to join FSS, with an average of 59% in year 1, to 60% in year 2, and a further increase in year 3. In the first quarter of year 3, the start rate increased to 85%, before decreasing again to at least 72% in July-September^[3]. This is shown in Figure 2. The changes in referral sources (described in the introduction section) were highlighted as a possible reason for the increase in start rate in April – June 2020. 

Note: 
1. The July - September 2020 start rate is not complete yet and may rise further. 

The Scottish Government's evaluation of the second year of the service^[4] highlighted that compared to the unemployed population of Scotland there were some groups under-represented in FSS: women, people from minority ethnic backgrounds and young people; while a higher proportion of disabled people and older people used the service. This is the same as for the first year of FSS^[5].

The breakdown of equalities groups for FSS is shown in Figure 3. There have been changes in the demographic composition of those joining the service over time. 

In total 37% of people joining FSS were women and 63% were men. The proportion of women has increased over time: from 35% in year 1, to 37% in year 2, and 40% in the first and second quarters of year 3.

The most common age group of people joining FSS was 35-49 years (28% of people), followed by 50 years old and over (26%), 25-34 years (24%), and 16-24 years (20%). 

Over time, the proportion of younger participants has increased, while the proportion of older participants has decreased. In the most recent quarter, the proportion of people from younger age groups (16 to 34) was 54%, with 45% from older age groups (35 and over). This shows little change from the quarter before (56% younger, 44% older), but the proportion of younger participants has increased since year 1 (38% younger, 60% older) and year 2 (44% younger, 52% older).

67% of people joining FSS were white, with 5% of people joining from minority ethnic backgrounds. Ethnicity data is not available for the remaining 28%. The rate of unknowns was high and increased in years 2 and 3, making comparisons over time difficult.^[6] 

44% of people joining FSS reported a disability. The proportion of disabled participants has decreased over time; from 55% in year 1 to 44% in year 2, to 27% in April – June 2020. In the most recent quarter there was a large increase in the proportion of unknown data, so it is not possible to report on the change in the proportion of disabled people in July – September 2020. 

65% of people joining FSS reported having a long-term health condition, and 28% reported no long-term health condition, with the rest unknown. 

Figure 4 shows that the most common health condition reported was mental health (35%). Between year 1 and 2 there was a 5 percentage point increase in people reporting a mental health condition among those joining FSS, from 31% to 36%.  This then remained at a similar level in the the first two quarters of year 3 (36% in April – June, 38% in July – September).

The second most commonly reported type of health condition was a long-term illness, disease or condition, which affected 16% of people joining FSS and has not changed much over time.

Physical disabilities were the third most common long-term health conditions reported. The number of people reporting a physical disability declined over time until April – June 2020 (14% in year 1, 10% in year 2, 5% in April – June 2020), and was 7% in the most recent quarter.

How many people left FSS early?

Someone is defined as having left FSS early (an 'early leaver') if they leave FSS before the end of the pre-employment support period and without having sustained employment for at least 3 months. The pre-employment support period usually lasts for up to 1 year. In some cases, it can last up to 18 months, but this has only applied to a small number of people so far. 

Overall, 10,029 people have left FSS early. As with job outcomes, as time goes on we get a more complete picture of numbers staying on FSS or leaving early. Where we have a complete picture^[7], 50% of people joining left the service early. 

The numbers of people leaving early decreased in April – June 2020 (see attached tables, table 3). This decrease needs to be considered in relation to the changing situation for the delivery of FSS due to COVID-19, particularly with a temporary relaxation of rules for participants remaining in contact with providers (see Introduction section). In the most recent quarter, numbers of people leaving early has increased and is now similar to pre COVID-19 levels.

Figure 5 shows that the percentage of people leaving early was broadly similar for most of the equalities groups. However, the percentage was higher for those reporting a disability, particularly for those who have a long-term health condition that limits daily activities a lot (56% left early). The proportion of people leaving early was lower for those who had a long-term health condition that did not limit daily activities at all (44%).

How many people entered and sustained employment?

A total of 8,329 people who joined FSS have started a job. On average, most people who started a job found employment within three months of joining FSS. 

COVID-19 has had an impact on the labour market, and the number of job vacancies^[10]  available. Figure 6 has been included to show changes in FSS job starts since COVID-19 restrictions began in March 2020. It shows that FSS job starts in April – June 2020 were 20% lower than the same period in 2019, but then increased, so that in July – September 2020 they were 10% higher than the same period in 2019. 

Of the 8,329 people who started work, 4,761 of those had sustained employment for at least 3 months (13 weeks), 3,320 were employed for at least 6 months (26 weeks) and 1,735 were employed for at least 12 months (52 weeks), as of September 2020. 

Job outcome rates can only be reported for start cohorts where enough time has passed in pre employment support and for outcomes to be achieved. These show:

• most people who started FSS did not enter work or go on to sustain employment: 33% started a job, 23% sustained employment for 3 months, 18% sustained employment for 6 months, and 13% sustained employment for 12 months^[11]
• however, when people start jobs they have high levels of sustaining them: 71% of people starting jobs went on to sustain employment for 3 months, 78% of the people who sustained employment for 3 months went on to reach 6 months, and 77% of those who sustained employment for 6 months went on to reach at least 12 months

Figures 7, 8, 9 and 10 show how the rates of job starts and outcomes compare between different equality groups. 

The rates of job starts and outcomes did not show a large difference by gender, and were never more than 1 percentage point different. More men (33%) than women (32%) started a job. The opposite is true when looking at 3 month (men: 23%, women: 24%),  6 month (men: 18%, women: 19%), and 12 month (men: 13%, women: 14%) job outcomes.

The biggest differences were observed with age and long-term health conditions, which are often related. 39% of 16-24 year olds started work after joining FSS, whereas a lower proportion (28%) of those aged 50 and above started work – a difference of 11 percentage points. The difference between these two groups narrows when considering duration of employment at 3 month (7 percentage points), 6 month (4 percentage points) and 12 month (2 percentage point) sustained jobs outcomes.

22% of those with a long-term health condition that limited daily activities a lot went on to start work, whereas a higher proportion (39%) of those with a health condition that did not limit daily activities went on to start work. This is a difference of 17 percentage points. The difference between these two groups narrows when considering duration of employment at 3 month (10 percentage points), 6 month (8 percentage points) and 12 month (7 percentage points) sustained outcomes.

33% of white participants went on to start work, whereas a higher proportion of minority ethnic participants (39%) went on to start work. This is a gap of 6 percentage points, which narrows slightly for 3 month (4 percentage points) and 6 month (3 percentage points) job outcomes, but is higher at 12 months (8 percentage points). Thus 21% of minority ethnic participants sustained a job for 12 months compared to 13% of white participants.