Scottish Government's Medium Term Financial Strategy: May 2019

Footnotes

1. https://www.scottishfuturestrust.org.uk/publications 

2. https://undocs.org/A/HRC/41/39/Add.1  

3. As the latest tax and BGA forecasts in Table 2 have no immediate impact on the current and previous years’ budgets, the funding outlook continues to use the tax revenue and BGA forecasts that determined the budget in each of these years. Please see Table A.1 in Annex A for the tax revenue and BGA figures used to inform the funding outlook. 

4. https://cdn.obr.uk/March-2019_EFO_Web-Accessible.pdf 

5. https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13855 

6. Where there is, or is forecast to be, a Scotland-specific shock, the borrowing limit for forecast error is extended but is still subject to the aggregate annual limit and statutory overall limit. A Scotland-specific ‘economic shock’ is defined as when onshore Scottish real GDP growth is below 1 per cent in absolute terms on a rolling 4 quarter basis, and 1 percentage point below UK real GDP growth over the same period. It is important to note that if an ‘economic shock’ occurs it is not possible for the Scottish Government to apply resource borrowing to provide an economic stimulus. It can only be used where there is a forecast error in relation to devolved and assigned taxes, and on devolved social security expenditure, (and on the corresponding UK forecasts for the Block Grant Adjustments).

7. More detail on the Commission can be found at https://infrastructurecommission.scot/