Scotland's Forestry Strategy 2019-2029: consultation draft

4. Realising the vision and achieving the objectives: the major issues to be addressed

To determine the priorities for action in the next 10 years, we have identified the major issues that are likely to have the greatest impact on achieving the draft objectives. In this section we summarise these issues and propose priorities for action to ensure that we make the most of opportunities (e.g. the demand for low-carbon raw materials) while mitigating the threats (e.g. the emergence of new tree diseases).

4.1 Wood fibre supply and demand

Understanding and responding to the balance of supply and demand for Scottish wood fibre and products is fundamental to achieving the objective of increasing the contribution of forestry to sustainable economic growth. This is a particularly important driver of financial value and investment.

Scotland has favourable growing conditions for productive timber species, and a highly efficient timber-processing sector. The main wood fibre produced in Scotland for downstream processing and manufacture is softwood from fast growing and highly productive conifer species. Productive hardwood from our broadleaved forests and woodlands is produced in much less volumes at present, but provides wood fibre for the wood fuel market and high value niche wood products.

Supply

Scotland is currently a net exporter of wood and wood products and an important supplier to wider UK markets. Regular forecasts of softwood fibre availability from Scotland's forests are currently provided to the timber growing and wood processing sectors. The most recent forecast predicts a steep increase in softwood wood-fibre availability peaking in 2030, then a subsequent decline over the following 20 years in line with the decline in productive planting since the 1980s, and deforestation or permanent woodland loss due to development^[13].

The graph below assumes effective restocking of felled productive areas, which can be a challenge, requiring careful regulation. The replanting (restocking) of harvested areas with suitable tree species is critical in terms of ensuring a sustained supply of wood in the future. As this is a key component of sustainable forest management, it is a requirement under the Scottish Government's Control of Woodland Removal Policy, and will be covered by the revised felling permission regulations under the FLM(S)A 2018.

Chart 2 - 50-year forecast of softwood availability in Scotland

Demand

Globally, the UK is second only to China in terms of net imports of timber and wood products^[14]. A recent report for the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) predicts that by 2050 the UK will be importing about 30% more of its wood and wood products than it is currently (78% compared with 60% today)^[15]. The report also predicts that by 2050, in order to meet global rising demand for wood products, annually the volume of wood removed worldwide will be three times the volume removed in 2010^[16] . This will increase the cost of imports and the impact of this may be further exacerbated by fluctuations in exchange rates.

All parts of the UK have ambitious and binding targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This is driving demand for sustainable construction and infrastructure materials as well as biomass. For example, the UK Government has proposed that, in England, around 300,000 new homes per year will be needed by the mid-2020s^[17]. In 2016, 83% of new houses built in Scotland were of timber frame construction but in England it was less than 23%^[18]. New emerging technologies such as bio-based materials from biorefineries may also offer opportunities for adding significant value in the coming years, as well as increasing demand for wood fibre.

4.2 Rural land-use, productivity and integration

Forest and woodland management must be considered within the context of wider land-use. Managing woodlands without considering how they interact with surrounding land-uses has been one of the major criticisms of forestry in Scotland over recent decades, resulting in missed opportunities and some badly designed forests. This has partially been a result of thinking in silos in both policy and practice, and, in particular, a failure to take advantage of the many beneficial overlaps between farming and forestry.

With implementation of this strategy we have a significant opportunity to address this issue, and thus realise more of the benefits for the whole of the rural economy.

EU exit and future rural land-use

As a result of the UK's withdrawal from the EU, changes in the rural economy and other land-uses will impact on forests, and vice versa. The impact of withdrawal from the EU on Scotland's land-use pattern and rural economy will emerge over the next decade, and the first few years of this strategy will coincide with a critical revisiting of Scotland's approach to rural support. The current primary support regime for forestry, which is part of the EU Common Agricultural Policy, will need to be reviewed and replaced, and there is a key opportunity when designing new policies to ensure a more integrated approach is taken.

Complementary land-uses

Given this dynamic context, there is an opportunity to mainstream integrated land management in line with the principles of our Land Use Strategy^[19], ensuring that forestry, farming and other land-uses including recreation, housing, conservation and sporting activities work together to support a strong, productive, rural economy and healthy environment.

This approach is consistent with the recommendation given by the Scottish Government's Agricultural Champions (May 2018) for a single joined-up approach to integrated land management planning, making it simpler for farmers to engage in more diverse activities such as forestry and tourism. It is also consistent with the commitment in the Discussion Paper on Developing an Environment Strategy for Scotland^[20] (June 2018) to explore opportunities to strengthen our integrated approach to the sustainable management of our land and seas through our future policies on agriculture, forestry and fisheries.

As Scotland takes a more integrated approach to the rural economy as a whole, new opportunities are also being identified - particularly with regards to the use of the Scottish Ministers' forestry and land assets as a catalyst for sustainable economic growth. Examples include opportunities for renewable energy, commercial recreation, tourism and agricultural businesses, as well as the provision of affordable homes.

A particularly important outcome of this integrated approach should be to improve farm viability and enable more farmers to realise the benefits that trees can provide in terms of income from timber, livestock shelter, wildlife habitats, carbon retention, and as a source of biomass energy.

4.3 Economic development: national, regional and local

As we have already noted, Scotland's forests and woodlands have an important role to play in supporting sustainable economic development at national, regional and local levels. We have seen substantial inward investment in our timber-processing sector and this needs a growing and predictable supply of sustainable wood fibre.

Local enterprise

In addition, the sector can support a wider range of diverse enterprises, from small-scale artisan businesses adding value to local forest products, to forest nursery businesses, and from community-based companies generating income by using forests and woodlands as recreational and tourism destinations, to wood fuel supply businesses.

Supporting rural communities

Over and above direct economic benefits, forests also have the potential to play a wider role in sustaining Scotland's rural communities through helping address key issues such as providing employment opportunities and supporting the provision of affordable rural housing, all of which can help to attract and retain individuals and families.

Sustainable growth

At the same time, we must also recognise the challenge of ensuring that this economic growth occurs in a sustainable and inclusive manner and ensure that we minimise any potentially negative impacts on local communities and the environment (e.g. from the transportation of timber). There is also the opportunity to build on what has already been achieved locally, regionally and nationally by growing and expanding existing businesses and markets, providing jobs and, through research and innovation, developing new approaches, products and services.

4.4 Innovation and new technology

Innovation and technological advances can be deployed at all stages in the forest cycle and right along the supply chain, stimulating higher efficiency, productivity and value.

Improving efficiencies in the supply chain

International developments in forestry, especially in Scandinavia, demonstrate the huge possibilities for new technology to be adopted in Scottish forestry. For example, advances in remote sensing could allow forests to be monitored more frequently, providing managers and owners with high quality data to support decision-making and providing more accurate forecasts of potential timber availability. This technology could also make it easier to monitor the health of forests, detect areas that are not appropriately restocked, and rapidly identify areas of illegal felling.

Better connectivity could also be used to improve linkages between the forest and the sawmill using real-time information. Other opportunities could include advances from the fields of robotics, automation, telematics and artificial intelligence.

Adding value

New technology and innovation also offers great potential to increase the extent of value-added products that wood fibre can produce. For instance, biorefinery technology could be used to develop new sources of chemicals or products such as cellulosic plastics. These value-added products should drive efficiencies and value back into the forest and the wider economy, with a greater emphasis on sustainably maximising wood-fibre recovery from our forests and woodlands.

4.5 Developing future foresters and upskilling the existing workforce

Developing an interest in forestry in young people

In common with other land-based industries, forestry has an aging workforce, with all parts of the sector experiencing difficulties attracting capable young people.

The provision of outdoor learning and play opportunities, and the use of forests and woodlands as learning venues for children, young people and adults helps to address this, and also supports wider government education and skills ambitions. There is also an opportunity for sustainable forestry to be used as a topic within our 'Learning for Sustainability^[21]' initiative. Evidence shows that for children who are given the opportunity to experience outdoor learning and play, there are often associated improvements in their physical, social and emotional development^[22], as well as in their disposition to learning, and their attainment levels^[23]. There is also some evidence that trees have a particularly positive role, as compared with other types of greenspace^[24]. We also know that if children visit and use woodlands then they are much more likely to do so as adults^[25] and that through hands-on interactions and educational experiences, an understanding and appreciation of nature can be developed^[26].

Sector skills

The forestry sector, which is characterised by family-owned small and medium businesses, is growing and thereby increasing its demands for 'forest floor' jobs, as well as diversifying and requiring more varied skills. At the same time, the industry has an ageing workforce and is likely to be impacted by depopulation in parts of rural Scotland.

The challenge we face, therefore, is not only addressing the skills development needs of the existing workforce, but also those required to meet future demands for capacity and capability, in order to support the continued growth of the industry. It is also about attracting a more diverse range of talented people to work in the sector and ensuring that the appropriate qualifications and training opportunities are available.

4.6 Climate change

Adaptation

Projections for Scotland show that over the next 50 years, tree growth rates are likely to increase because of longer and warmer growing seasons, particularly in cooler and wetter areas. At the same time, the threat to trees and forests from pests and pathogens (see below) and from extreme events including wind storms, droughts and wildfires is also expected to rise.

The result of this will be that climate conditions will impact on the suitability of existing tree species on Scottish sites. Selective tree breeding can help to improve resilience, as well as productivity, by developing trees with desirable characteristics such as stem straightness, disease resistance, good height and diameter growth. In particular, a new approach using genomic selection has the potential to provide these benefits even faster.

Well-designed forests in the right places can also be used to help other sectors adapt to some of the impacts of climate change, for instance through the provision of natural flood management, as well as by offering shade and shelter for livestock.

Mitigation

While the forests themselves may be challenged by climate change, there is also a significant opportunity for forestry to mitigate the impacts of climate change and help meet our statutory climate change targets. The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 introduced a 42% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, and an 80% reduction by 2050. The Scottish Government has introduced the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Bill into Parliament to increase these statutory targets. The Bill proposes incremental targets rising to a 90% reduction by 2050^[27]. This reduction will mean net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. In other words, Scotland will be carbon-neutral by 2050. As an illustration of the contribution of forestry to this, in 2016, around 12 million tonnes of CO2e was removed by Scotland's forests and woodlands^[28]. Each additional hectare of new forest increases that by an average of about seven tonnes of CO2e each year, making the establishment of forests and woodlands a vital part of Scotland's contribution to the global effort to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions.

To realise this contribution, we have already committed to facilitating the planting of the right forests and woodlands in the right places to deliver the 2018-32 Climate Change Plan's annual planting targets, which will increase from 10,000 to 15,000 ha per year by 2025.

In addition to storing carbon in the forest, the production of timber also supports the development of a low-carbon economy by reducing emissions through the greater use of timber and wood products in sectors such as construction. Forestry can also support the development of a low carbon economy through the production and use of wood fuel; biomass currently provides around 90% of renewable heat in Scotland^[29].

4.7 Tree pests and diseases

The increased threat

Until the mid-1990s, significant pest and disease incursions in the UK were experienced once every decade. However, greater globalisation of trade and travel has resulted in increasing volumes of plants and plant products entering the UK. This, combined with a changing climate, has made some trees more susceptible to pest and disease attack, and created an environment where unwelcome organisms can now thrive.

Since 2005, the pace and scale of these challenges have escalated markedly with several pests and diseases becoming more prominent in Scotland, including Dothistroma needle blight, Phytophthora ramorum and Chalara Ash dieback.

The impact of EU exit

The UK withdrawal from the EU may introduce new plant health risks, given possible changes to previously common approaches to biosecurity. However, it also presents opportunities to revise and enhance our approach of working with other UK Governments to ensure we have a system in place that better meets our biosecurity needs

4.8 Wild deer

Wild deer are a part of forest and woodland ecosystems but high numbers of animals can damage trees, which can be a challenge to successful woodland establishment, restricting the natural regeneration of forests and woodlands and increasing costs (e.g. more deer fencing). The sustainable management of wild deer populations is therefore an important aspect of sustainable forest management.

4.9 Enhancing our natural assets and improving their biodiversity value

Improving native forest and woodland condition

All our forests, woodlands and associated open ground habitats provide some biodiversity value but native forests and woodland in good condition are expected to contribute the greatest biodiversity value. The area of Scotland's native forest is expanding and 46% of native forest area is in satisfactory condition for biodiversity^[30]. In March 2017, the percentage of native woodland features in protected areas that was in good condition was 68.1%^[31]. However, challenges exist around protecting and improving the ecological condition and habitat quality of these forests and woodlands. The key threats to the condition of our native forests and woodlands are the presence of invasive species, especially rhododendron, and the pressure of herbivore browsing preventing natural regeneration and suppressing the development of natural ground flora.

Protecting ancient forests and woodlands

Of our native woodlands, our ancient semi-natural forests usually have the highest ecological values and this is recognised in Scottish Planning Policy. Due to their development over many centuries, their continuous tree cover and their slow pace of change, ancient woodlands and forests have many unique features, including soils that are irreplaceable.

Our challenge, therefore, is to make sure that we preserve and protect our ancient woodlands. Where ancient woodlands have previously been felled and replaced with non-native trees, (plantations on ancient woodland sites - PAWS), the challenge lies in improving their biodiversity value and restoring them in a sensitive manner, replanting native trees where appropriate, and helping associated wildlife to return.

4.10 Environmental and landscape quality

Water quality and soil management

There are also opportunities to manage our forests and woodlands to maximise the environmental benefits and services they provide to society, improve the quality of the environment we live in, and, at the same time, support sustainable economic growth, particularly for fisheries, tourism and other land-based sectors. These are key themes being explored in our discussions on the development of an Environment Strategy for Scotland^[32].

Well-managed forests and woodlands can help manage water quantity in times of flood, or water scarcity, and also protect and improve water quality by acting as a buffer to reduce the amount of pollutants entering watercourses. They also moderate water temperature through shading, while at the same time, appropriate soil management contributes to slope and river bank stabilisation by reducing soil erosion.

Landscape quality

Scottish woodlands and forests are recognised internationally for their contribution to many of our highly regarded landscapes, and in some places represent a key element of their character. They are also acknowledged for their contribution towards the scenic beauty of Scotland's essentially cultural landscape, a key reason people visit and explore this country. However, poorly planned forests can have negative impacts on a landscape, although these can usually be mitigated by careful design, including when management opportunities arise to restructure an existing forest.

Our challenge is to ensure that the management and steady expansion of woodlands and forests continues to contribute positively to the quality of Scotland's landscapes. There is also the opportunity for future woodlands and forests to mitigate some of the environmental and visual effects from physical development, such as urban expansion, transport, power and renewable energy, and contribute towards the creation of new high quality landscapes.

4.11 Well-being

The aesthetic contribution that Scotland's forests and woodlands make to the places we live in and the landscapes we enjoy can also contribute to our sense of well-being and quality of life.

Improving physical health and mental well-being

Scotland's forests and woodlands have a proven track record of delivering a range of social and community benefits. By building on the work that has already been done, we have an opportunity to ensure that our forests and woodlands are used and managed in a way that makes a greater contribution to the Scottish Government's ambitions to ensure people are healthy and active. Numerous studies have demonstrated a positive relationship between green space and population health and evidence is particularly strong in terms of the restorative potential of woodland and forests and the positive impact they can have on mental well-being^[33].

The forestry industry's role

By supporting the provision of affordable housing and through the provision of appropriate training opportunities, quality jobs and fair work, the forestry industry can also make a significant contribution, not only to Scotland's economy, but also to the self-esteem and well-being of those working in the sector and the resilience of the communities they live in.

4.12 Equality and empowerment

Through its role in strengthening the viability of rural communities in Scotland, forestry can also help to empower them, providing opportunities for rural areas to flourish. The Scottish Government has also recognised in the Land Rights and Responsibilities Statement that "There should be a more diverse pattern of land ownership and tenure"^[34].

Community woodland ownership and management

Since 2003, around 200 community woodland groups have been established, collectively managing around 100,000 ha of woodland and other land, more than 10,000 ha of which has been transferred from the National Forest Estate. Through ownership and direct management of forests and woodlands, as well as through other forms of involvement in forest and woodland management decision-making processes, communities can build a sense of identity and pride and be empowered to become more resilient and have more control over their own lives and their local environment.

4.13 Urban forestry

Health and well-being benefits for urban populations

Over two-thirds of the Scottish population live in urban settlements and 92% of urban Scots feel that it is important to have greenspace nearby^[35]. Urban forestry therefore represents an opportunity to benefit a significant proportion of the Scottish population, providing accessible spaces for active travel, exercise and other forms of recreation, and promoting physical and mental health and well-being. One study found that after £2.5 million per year improvements in Scotland's urban woodlands and forests, the value of the recreation and additional health benefits was £14 million^[36].

Social inclusion

Urban forests and woodlands can also help improve social inclusion: There is evidence to suggest that people are more likely to engage in social activity in greenspaces than they would in barren ones^[37]. They also provide the opportunity to help reduce health inequalities, allowing people from a range of social groups to participate in outdoor recreational activities^[38] and experience the benefits that urban forests can offer.

Environmental improvements and challenges

Forests and woodlands in our towns and cities make an important contribution to improving the physical quality of Scotland's urban environments. They mitigate the environmental impacts of increasing urban development through, for example, improving air quality and by reducing both rainfall runoff intensity and flooding. The Scottish Government's National Planning Framework 3 and the Central Scotland Green Network demonstrate how urban forestry can also help to economically regenerate degraded urban landscapes, including vacant, derelict and contaminated sites.

However, there are also challenges to urban forests and woodlands from development and urban expansion, which can result in woodland loss and fragmentation.

Q3. Do you agree with our assessment of the major issues likely to have the greatest impact on the achievement of our objectives? Please explain your answer.

4.14 The relationship between the major issues and the 10-year objectives

Considering these issues in the context of our draft objectives provides an insight into how actions should be prioritised to realise the opportunities and mitigate the risks identified above. The table below summarises the significance of the potential impacts of these issues on the achievement of our draft objectives, illustrating the necessity of adopting a cross-cutting approach in our responses.

Table 1 - The relationship between the major issues and the 10-year objectives

	Objective 1: Economy	Objective 2: Environment	Objective 3: People
Wood fibre supply and demand	High	Low	Low
Rural land-use, productivity and integration	High	Medium	Low
Economic development: national and local	High	Medium	High
Innovation and new technology	High	High	Low
Developing future foresters and upskilling the existing workforce	High	Medium	High
Climate change	High	High	Medium
Tree pests and diseases	High	High	Medium
Wild deer	Medium	Medium	Low
Enhancing our natural assets and improving their biodiversity value	Low	High	Medium
Environmental and landscape quality	Medium	High	Medium
Well-being	Medium	Low	High
Equality and empowerment	Medium	Low	High
Urban forestry	Medium	Medium	High