Scotland's Forestry Strategy 2019-2029 draft: strategic environmental assessment (SEA)
Findings of the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of the consultation draft of Scotland's Forestry Strategy 2019-2029.
Appendix C: Baseline Information of relevance to the Forestry Strategy
Environmental Topic |
Baseline Information |
Key Data |
Trends |
Source |
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Population and Human Health |
Age structure (2017) |
17% of the population is under 16 years of age; 64% is between 16 and 64; 19% is 65 and over |
Scotland's population is aging, with people 75 and over projected to become the fastest growing age group in Scotland |
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Life expectancy at birth (2015) |
76.9 years for males; 81.0 years for females; 79.0 years combined male and female |
this figure has shown general improvement over the long term (i.e. from 68.7 for males and 75.1 for females in 1980) |
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Mortality rates (2016) |
1 136 per 100 000 |
there has been a 27% drop in overall mortality since 1994, reflecting a cumulative decline in deaths from cancer, coronary heart disease, respiratory conditions, and stroke |
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Deprivation (2016) |
many of the 5% most deprived areas in Scotland are clustered to the west of the Central Belt, particularly in and near Glasgow City |
between 2012 and 2016, the largest increases in share of the 20% most deprived areas occurred across West Dunbartonshire, Midlothian, North Ayrshire, and South Ayrshire |
Scottish Government - Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2016 |
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Access to greenspace (2016) |
65% of adults live within a 5 minute walk of their nearest greenspace |
this figure has remained relatively stable over time (2013) |
Scotland's People Annual Report: Results from the 2016 Scottish Household Survey |
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Frequency of use of local greenspace (2016) |
36% of adults visit their nearest greenspace several times a week; 41% visit once a week or less; 23% do not visit at all |
greenspace usage has remained relatively stable over time (2013) but may decline as the population ages |
as above |
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Outdoor visits (2016) |
48% of adults visit the outdoors at least once a week; 13% do not visit at all; people in deprived areas are less likely to visit the outdoors |
this figure has remained relatively stable over time (2013) |
as above |
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Participation in physical activity (2016) |
79% of adults reported participating in sport and exercise in the past month, including walking |
this figure has increased by 17% since 2007, mostly due to increases in recreational walking |
as above |
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Active travel (2016) |
69% of adults surveyed reported walking and 6% of adults reported cycling in the past week, with walking accounting for 24% of all journeys taken and cycling accounting for 1% of all journeys taken in 2016 |
between 2012 and 2016, the annual distance cycled in Scotland appears to have increased by 13.5% |
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Pressures on population and human health |
poor air quality, physical inactivity, inadequate housing conditions, deprivation, physical and mental health issues, ageing population and age-related diseases (e.g. dementia), climate change (e.g. increased vulnerability to flooding) |
SPICe Briefing – Air Quality in Scotland; Scottish Government – A National Clinical Strategy for Scotland; SPICe Briefing – Good for climate, good for health; |
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Biodiversity, Flora, and Fauna |
Forest and woodland cover (2017) |
1 440 000ha (18% of Scotland's land area) |
forest and woodland cover has increased over the 20th century from 351 000ha in 1905 to 656 000ha in 1965 to 1 281 000ha in 1995-99 |
Forestry Commission - Forestry Statistics 2017; see also Figure B3 (Appendix D) (Native Woodland Survey of Scotland 2014) |
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New planting (2016-2017) |
4 800ha planted (73% of UK total amount) |
new planting has decreased since 2012-2013 (7 000ha) |
as above |
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New planting by ownership (2016-2017) |
1 100ha Forestry Commission |
private sector new planting has decreased (e.g. 6 200ha in 2012-2013) but has remained greater than Forestry Commission new planting (e.g. 800ha in 2012-2013) |
as above |
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3 700ha private sector |
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New planting by forest type (2016-2017) |
3 200ha conifers |
broadleaf planting has decreased considerably to become less extensive than conifer planting, which has increased |
as above |
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1 500ha broadleaves |
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Woodland area by ownership (2017) |
470 000ha (33%) owned by FC; 970 000ha (67%) owned by the private sector |
these proportions have been fairly stable since 2013 |
as above |
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Species composition (2017) |
74% conifers (1 061 000ha) |
no trend data available |
as above |
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26% broadleaved species (378 000ha) |
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Native woodland cover (2013) |
319 100ha (22.5% of Scotland's total woodland area as of March 2011 and roughly 4.0% of Scotland's total land area) |
native woodland cover decreased during the 20th century but began to recover after 1985 in response to policy changes |
Forestry Commission - Native Woodland Survey of Scotland; SNH - Natural Heritage Trends - Forest and woodland: native woodland; see also Figure B3 (Appendix D) (Native Woodland Survey of Scotland 2014) |
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Condition (2013) |
46% found to be in satisfactory condition |
overall, conditions are stable or declining, with some areas exhibiting improvements and others declining |
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Ancient woodland cover (2013) |
120 305ha (65% / 64 130ha of these ancient woodlands qualify as native woodland, comprising 20.6% of native woods in total and just 4.6% of all woodlands in Scotland) |
in comparison to previous surveys (i.e. Scottish Ancient Woodland Inventory), ancient woodland cover appears to have decreased |
as above |
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Condition (2013) |
40% found to be in satisfactory condition |
no trend data available |
as above |
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UK BAP Priority habitat types (woodland) |
lowland mixed deciduous, native pine woodlands, upland birchwoods, upland mixed ashwoods, upland oakwood, wet woodland, wood pasture and parkland |
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HabMoS – EUNIS land cover |
coastal habitats; constructed, industrial, and other artificial habitats; grasslands and lands dominated by forbs, mosses, or lichens; habitat complexes; heathland, scrub, and tundra; inland surface waters; inland unvegetated or sparsely vegetated habitats; marine habitats; mires, bogs, and fens; montane habitats; regularly or recently cultivated agricultural, horticultural, and domestic habitats; woodland, forest, and other wooded land |
see also Figures B9 and B10 (Appendix D) (Scotland's Environment map) |
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Designated protected areas (2016) |
1 423 Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), 51 Ramsar sites, 153 Special Protection Areas (SPAs), 249 Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) |
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Condition of notified species National Indicator (SSSI, Ramsar, SPA, SAC) (2016) |
71% of all species features were in favourable condition; 3% were unfavourable recovering; 3% were unfavourable with corrective measures agreed; and 24% were in an unfavourable condition
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considered to be in stable condition |
SNH Biodiversity Indicator S010 – Condition of notified species |
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Condition of notified habitats national indicator (SSSI, Ramsar, SPA, SAC) (2016) |
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considered to be in stable condition |
SNH Biodiversity Indicator S011 – Condition of notified habitats |
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Index of abundance of terrestrial breeding birds national indicator (2016) |
indicates: environmental change and condition of biodiversity overall |
all-species figure is 14% higher than 1994; farmland birds increased in number up to the late-2000s then decreased, showing an overall 14% increase over 1994; woodland birds have seen a significant increase (67%) since 1994; upland birds have decreased (16%) in the same time period |
SNH – Index of Abundance for Scottish Terrestrial Breeding Birds, 1994 to 2016 |
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Index of terrestrial insect abundance – butterflies (2017) |
indicates: habitat loss and fragmentation and the impacts of climate change |
all-species, generalist, and specialist numbers are considered to be stable since 1979 |
SNH Biodiversity Indicator S008 – Terrestrial Insect Abundance - Butterflies |
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Deer population in woodland habitats (2016) |
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trend data is uncertain; across private woodlands, estimates indicate the population could be stable or falling slightly; on National Forest Estate land, figures suggested the population for all deer species combined dropped by 24% between June 2001 and June 2016 |
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Impacts of deer grazing on woodlands |
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Forestry Commission - Native Woodland Survey of Scotland; SNH – Deer Management in Scotland: Report to the Scottish Government from Scottish Natural Heritage 2016; see also Figures B11, B12 and B13 (Appendix D) |
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Challenges associated with deer management |
cost; different environmental and social contexts requiring different approaches (e.g. different patterns of land ownership); lack of coordination in some instances; associated environmental impacts (e.g. impacts on public access, landscape, protection of native woodland, etc.) |
SNH – Deer Management in Scotland: Report to the Scottish Government from Scottish Natural Heritage 2016; see also Figure B4 (Appendix D) |
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Pressures on biodiversity |
pollution; land use intensification and modification; spread of invasive species and wildlife disease; a lack of recognition of the true value of nature; a disconnection with nature; climate change; marine exploitation |
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Soil |
Characteristics |
in general, Scotland's soils are young, acidic, carbon rich, and nutrient poor compared to those found elsewhere in UK and mainland Europe |
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Main soil types |
podzols (associated with coniferous woodland), brown earths (associated with semi-natural woodlands to the west), gleys, organic peat soils |
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Condition (2014) |
Scotland's soils are considered to be in good condition |
no trend data available |
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Pressures on soils |
changes in climate and changes in land use and land management practices leading to loss of soil organic matter, erosion, compaction, soil sealing, contamination, leaching, and changes in soil biodiversity |
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Spatial extent of peatlands (blanket bog, raised bog, fens, and bog woodland) (2015) |
peatlands cover more than 20% of Scotland's land area, mostly to the north and west with smaller pockets elsewhere; blanket bog alone covers 23% of Scotland's land area (1.8 million hectares) |
SNH – Scotland's National Peatland Plan; see also Figure B7 (Appendix D) (Scotland's Environment map) |
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Condition of peatlands (2018) |
it is estimated that over 80% of peatlands are degraded; 70% of blanket bog and 90% of raised bog has sustained some level of damage |
certain peatlands are considered to be improving due to focused restoration efforts |
Scotland's Soils - Peatland Restoration; SNH – Scotland's National Peatland Plan; ClimateXChange - NB22a Peatland restoration area |
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Pressures on peatland |
commercial peat extraction and general harvesting, overgrazing, trampling by herbivores, burning, drainage and conversion to agricultural land and development, tree planting and woodland expansion, renewable energy generation, climate change |
SNH – Commission Report No. 701 – Scotland's peatland – definitions and information resources |
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Carbon abatement from peatland restoration (2012) |
estimated at 0.018 Mt CO2e/year |
by 2027, carbon savings could increase to 0.4-0.7 Mt CO2e/year based on a realistic restoration program |
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Soil carbon storage (2011) |
3 000 million tonnes (roughly 50% of the UK total) |
this figure has remained relatively stable over time, although there may be small changes in individual land use categories over short time periods |
as above |
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Rocks and landforms |
Rocks: volcanic foundation rocks (Central Belt); Lewisian-like and Moine-like rocks overlain by Dalradian foundation rocks (Grampian Highlands); Moine and Lewisian-like foundation rocks (Northern Highlands); Lewisian rocks, Torridonian rocks, and Cambrian and Ordovician foundation rocks (North-west seaboard); sedimentary greywacke and shale foundation rocks (Southern Uplands); various rocks formed since joining of foundations (Devonian, Carboniferous, Permian to Cretaceous, Palaeogene and Neogene) |
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Landforms: caves and karst, coastal features (e.g. cliffs, sand dunes), Ice Age landforms (e.g. moraines, meltwater channels and deposits, periglacial features, etc.), landslides, rivers |
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Condition of rocks and landforms (2014) |
Scotland's rocks and landforms considered to be in generally good condition |
conditions are considered to be stable or declining |
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Pressures |
urban and rural development; changes in land use; demand for resources; climate change; rising sea levels; vegetation growth; dumping of waste material; quarrying, mining, and gravel extraction; coastal protection and river engineering; specimen collection |
as above |
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Geological Conservation Review sites |
nearly 900, covering features such as rocks, minerals, and fossils; landform features formed during the Ice Age; and modern rivers and coasts; a significant proportion of these are covered by protective SSSI designations but more than 200 are unnotified and so their protection is not guaranteed |
SNH – Geological Conservation Review sites; see also Figure B1 (Appendix D) (Scotland's Environment map) |
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Condition of SSSI with earth sciences features (including Geological Conservation Review sites) (2018) |
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the majority of features experienced no change in condition increased between 2010 and 2016 (i.e. are considered to be stable) |
Scotland's Environment – Data Analysis – Protected Nature Sites |
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Water |
Water bodies in Scotland |
125 000 km of river, 25 500 lochs (2 000 km2), 49 estuaries (1 000 km2), 19 000 km of coastline (48 000 km2), and 462 000 km2 of offshore waters; additionally, significant volumes of groundwater (greater than rivers and lochs combined) |
Key Scottish Environment Statistics 2016; BGS/SEPA - Scotland's aquifers and groundwater bodies |
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Surface water conditions (total number of water bodies) (2016) |
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since 2007, conditions have been stable or improving |
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since 2007, conditions have been stable or improving |
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since 2007, conditions have been stable or improving |
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since 2007, conditions have been stable or declining |
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Groundwater conditions (2016) |
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since 2012, conditions have been stable or improving |
as above |
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Protected areas conditions (2016) |
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longer term trend data is unavailable but figures have remained stable or improved since 2014 |
as above |
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Pressures on rivers and lochs |
agriculture, sewage disposal, hydropower and water supply, urban development, climate change, obstacles to fish migration, atmospheric pollution, invasive non-native species |
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Pressures on transitional waters |
waste water, diffuse pollution, habitat modifications, climate change, water abstraction, noise, dredging, invasive non-native species, litter |
as above |
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Pressures on coastal waters |
climate change, fishing, inputs of nutrients, contaminants, dredging and dumping, aquaculture, microbiological contamination, noise, litter, invasive non-native species |
as above |
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Pressures on groundwater |
diffusion pollution from rural sources, discharges from industries such as mining and quarrying, abstraction for agricultural irrigation and industry |
as above |
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Flood risk (2015) |
1 in 22 homes and 1 in 13 businesses are at risk from flooding |
episodes of flooding are expected to become more common and severe in response to climate change |
SEPA - Flood risk management in Scotland; Committee on Climate Change - Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme: An independent assessment for the Scottish Parliament |
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Air |
Condition (2014) |
air quality in Scotland overall is considered to be moderate, with localised areas of higher concentrations of certain pollutants that are the subject of special management measures (i.e. Air Quality Management Areas [AQMAs]) in 2017, 83 sites across Scotland met national air quality standards while 4 sites did not (Glasgow Kerbside, Edinburgh St Johns Road, Dundee Lochee Road, and Dundee Seagate) |
air quality has generally been improving in recent years |
Scotland's State of the Environment Report 2014; Air Quality in Scotland; see also Figure B6 (Appendix D) (Scotland's Environment – Air Quality) |
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Main air pollutants |
nitrogen oxides, particulate matter (fine dust), sulphur dioxide, ammonia, volatile organic compounds, ozone |
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Ammonia emissions (2015) |
37 ktonnes |
10% reduction in emissions since 1990 |
Air Quality Pollutant Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland: 1990-2015 (National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory) |
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PM10 emissions (2015) |
12 ktonnes |
63% reduction in emissions since 1990 |
as above |
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Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions (2015) |
140 ktonnes |
66% reduction in emissions since 1990 |
as above |
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Nitrogen oxides/NOxemissions (2015) |
84 ktonnes |
71% reduction in emissions since 1990 |
as above |
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Carbon monoxide emissions (2015) |
112 ktonnes |
83% reduction in emissions since 1990 |
as above |
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Sulphur dioxide emissions (2015) |
23 ktonnes |
92% reduction in emissions since 1990 |
as above |
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Lead emissions (2015) |
0 ktonnes (2.8 tonnes) |
99% reduction in emissions since 1990 |
as above |
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Air Quality Management Area (AQMAs) (2018) |
38 (mostly due to traffic emissions) |
as monitoring and assessment activities have increased, more AQMAs have been established (e.g. from 26 in 2011 to 32 in 2013 to 38 in 2018) and it is expected this number may continue to rise |
Air Quality in Scotland; Scotland's Environment – Air quality; see also Figure B6 (Appendix D) (Air Quality in Scotland – Air Quality Management Areas) |
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Pressures on air quality |
agriculture, domestic sources, power generation and industrial processes, road transport, |
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Potential human health impacts of poor air quality |
premature death, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, asthma, acute respiratory infections in children, diabetes, dementia, obesity |
as above |
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Potential environmental impacts of poor air quality |
reduced crop yields, stunted plant growth, impacts on livestock from reduced food quantity and quality, damage to natural ecosystems and the built environment from acid deposition, eutrophication of soil and water leading to biodiversity loss |
as above |
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Climatic Factors |
Greenhouse gas emissions* (EU ETS adjusted) (2015) * includes carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide (1990 baseline) and hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride, and nitrogen trifluoride (1995 baseline) |
45.5 MtCO2e |
41.0% reduction from 1990/1995 baseline |
Scottish Government - Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2015 |
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Greenhouse gas emissions by forestry sector (2015) |
-7.0 MtCO2e (i.e. net emissions removal) |
absorption by forestry is likely to fall over the coming decades due to low planting and maturing forests |
as above; SPICe - Scottish Forestry |
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Mean annual temperature (2016) |
7.83°C |
in general, temperatures have been increasing; eight of the ten warmest years on record in Scotland have occurred since 2001; the average temperature in the 2000s was 0.90°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average and warmer than any other decade since records began in 1910 |
Scottish Government temperature data (Metadata: Met Office); Key Scottish Environment Statistics 2016 (Metadata: Met Office) |
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Mean annual precipitation (2015) |
2015 was the second wettest year since records began in 1910 with precipitation recorded at 33.3% above the 1961-1990 baseline |
records show an overall increase in rainfall since the 1980s over previous decades, but there is seasonal and regional variation |
Key Scottish Environment Statistics 2016 (Metadata: Met Office) |
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Climate projections for Scotland |
in general, projections suggest observed climate trends will continue and intensify in the future these include:
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as above |
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Historic Environment |
Designations (2018) |
6 World Heritage sites, 8 167 scheduled monuments, 377 gardens and designed landscapes, 39 battlefields, and 663 conservation areas |
Historic Environment Scotland – Listing, scheduling and designations |
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Condition of historic environment overall (2014) |
Scotland's historic environment is considered to be in moderate condition |
conditions are considered to be stable |
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Pressures on historic environment |
development pressures, maintenance, land use, changing climate, coastal erosion, pollution, sustainability of traditional buildings, visitors |
as above |
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Condition of scheduled monuments (2017) |
around 88% of monuments are rated as being in satisfactory condition, 10% have major but localised problems, while 2% have extensive significant problems
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certain areas in west Scotland have higher than average unsatisfactory condition scores; trees and tree regeneration are the most widespread causes of deterioration across six of the eight monument categories in terms of risk, 61% of monuments are considered to be at low risk (minimal or slight) of deterioration and 8% are considered to be at high (deterioration within 1 year) or immediate (ongoing deterioration) risk |
Historic Environment Scotland – The Condition of Scotland's Scheduled Monuments – Results from Historic Environment Scotland's Monitoring Programme (publication pending) |
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Percentage of pre-1919 dwellings classified as having disrepair to critical elements national indicator (2016) |
67% |
this is a reduction from a peak of 80% in 2012 |
Scottish Government - Improve the state of Scotland's historic sites National Indicator |
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Archaeological features associated with Scotland's woodlands |
approximately 25 000 |
Forestry Commission Scotland – Scotland's woodlands and the historic environment |
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Examples of historical woodland features |
wood banks, charcoal platforms, saw pits, park pale, ancient coppice stools, veteran trees |
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Material Assets |
Main types of land use (2014) |
agriculture (~70%), woodland (~18%), urban (~2.5%) |
thousands of years ago, woodland cover was the dominant land use type; over time, this decreased to make way for agriculture, which today greatly surpasses all other types of land use, although agricultural land has decreased in area from 1982, likely due to woodland and urban expansion |
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Key land-based industries |
agriculture (crops and livestock), forestry, sporting (e.g. deer management), food and drink, mining and aggregate extraction, energy, tourism |
as above |
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Agricultural land use in Scotland (2016) |
~50% rough grazing; ~25% grass; ~10% used for crops or left fallow; ~15% used for woodland, ponds, yards, or other uses |
since 2000, these proportions have remained relatively stable; however, the NA2 Area of Prime Agricultural Land (Land Capability) Indicator suggests a long-term trend towards an increase in prime agricultural land in response to climate change (e.g. warmer, drier summers) |
Scottish Government – Agricultural Land Use in Scotland; Scottish Government Rural and Environment Analytical Services – Economic Trends in Scottish Agriculture; ClimateXChange – NA2 Area of Prime Agricultural Land (Land Capability) Indicator |
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Area of woodland on farms (2016) |
502 400ha |
woodland on farms has increased in area since 2007 (279 900ha) |
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Extent of built development landscape national indicator (2009) |
122 498ha (1.55% of Scotland's land area) |
no trend data available |
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Waste sent to landfill (2014) |
4.02 million tonnes |
42% reduction from 2005 |
Key Scottish Environment Statistics 2016 (Metadata: SEPA) |
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Amount of Biodegradable Municipal Waste (BMW) sent to landfill (2014) |
1.06 million tonnes |
51% reduction from 2005 |
as above |
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Household waste recycling rate (2015) |
44.2% |
increase from 42.8% in 2014 |
as above |
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Timber harvesting (2016) |
8.4 million m3 |
timber harvesting has increased relatively steadily over the past 35 years, with current volumes roughly seven times those of the late 1970s |
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Restocking in Scotland (2016-2017) |
11 100ha |
as above |
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Restocking by ownership (2016-2017) |
6 700ha Forestry Commission |
as above |
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4 400ha private sector |
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Restocking by forest type (2016-2017) |
9 100ha conifers |
as above |
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2 000ha broadleaves |
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Non-timber forest products |
more than 200, including wild and managed game; berries, mushrooms, and other edible plants; medicinal plants; foliage, seeds, bark, and resins; dyes and craft materials |
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Pressures on material assets |
increased demand for energy, water, raw materials, transport infrastructure, etc. leading to burdens on capacity and congestion; mismanagement; competition for space; climate change (e.g. increased vulnerability to flooding) |
National Infrastructure Commission – Congestion, Capacity, Carbon: Priorities for National Infrastructure; European Environment Agency – Landscapes in transition; Committee on Climate Change - Infrastructure |
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Landscape |
Area of National Landscape Designations national indicator (2016) |
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increase from approximately 17% in 1996, due in large part to designation of Cairngorms and Loch Lomond & the Trossachs National Parks |
SNH Landscape Indicator LLQ1 0 Area of National Landscape Designations; see also Figure B2 (Appendix D) (Scotland's Environment map) |
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Geoparks |
3 (10% of Scotland's total land area) |
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Wild land areas |
42 (mostly in the north and west) |
SNH - Wild Land Area descriptions; see also Figure B5 (Appendix D) (Scotland's Environment map) |
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Landscape Character Assessment |
includes coastal, highland, island, lowland, and upland areas |
see also Figure B8 (Appendix D) (Scotland's Environment map) |
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Visual influence of built development national indicator* (2013) * The components that make up this indicator are: Airfields; Major bridges; Extraction industries; Offshore surface structures; Wind Turbines; Tall structures without wind turbines; Building density (low and high); Motorways; Trunk roads; Non trunk A roads; B Roads; Minor roads and tracks (all); Railways; Overhead lines |
one or more types of built development could be seen from 73% (5 750 855ha) of Scotland's land area (7 880 880ha) |
this represents an increase from 71.4% in 2012 and from 65.4% in 2008 |
SNH Natural Heritage Indicator N3 - Visual influence of built environment |
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Pressures on landscapes |
climate change (e.g. loss of land to sea, flooding, changes in distribution of natural and semi-natural habitats, changes in plant composition due to pests or pathogens, etc.), incremental and ongoing development (e.g. infrastructure projects, housing, wind farms, etc.), and land use and intensification of land use and management (e.g. monoculture crops) |
Contact
Email: Bob Frost
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