Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland: Methodology

Methodology change – chained volume measures

Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q1 2024 is the first report in the series to include adjustment for inflation. Chained volume measures (CVM) of export quantity have been introduced to illustrate how exports and imports have been changing in real terms over recent years when high price inflation has been the driving factor in changes in the value of trade.

Additionally, in line with recommendations in the International Monetary Fund Guidance the HMRC data has been seasonally adjusted before undergoing CVM analysis. Because of the application of CVM, seasonal adjustment and the excluded commodities (see Adjusting for inflation), the statistics presented in this report will not match with trade estimates for Scotland released by HMRC.

Please note that we have not yet applied this methodology to all the analysis in Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q1 2024. Figures for trade with individual countries are currently still given in current prices as this analysis is still in development.

As Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q1 2024 is the first Scottish report in the series to include adjustment for inflation, the estimates in this report will not be comparable with estimates previously released in the series for Scotland's International Goods Trade. The accompanying tables show figures unadjusted for inflation (in current prices), and will be more comparable to previously published figures.