Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland: Methodology

Commodity categories in which the relationship between price and volume is frequently subject to considerable change, or where there are discontinuities in the series (e.g. no recorded exports of commodities in some years) are considered erratic. Such goods series cannot be reliably adjusted by CVM and so these have been excluded from such analysis.

To aid understanding of trends in real terms and to increase the accuracy of the analysis, erratic series are excluded from CVM estimates. While erratic items are relatively low volume, infrequently traded items, they nonetheless can lead to distracting signals in the statistics.

The total export value of the erratic series in current prices in year ending March 2024 excluded from the CVM analysis is £1.5 bn (7% of total export value excluding oil and gas). The largest contributor to this excluded value is Other Transport Equipment (5% of total export value excluding oil and gas).

While erratic items are relatively low volume, infrequently traded items, they nonetheless can lead to distracting signals in the statistics.

Due to the volatile nature of trade in these categories, it is helpful to exclude these commodities when assessing the general performance of trade over time. A brief analysis of these series can be found in the erratic series section of this report. Additionally, mineral fuels can make a large contribution to trade in goods, but often mask the underlying trend in the export or import values due to their volatility. Oil and gas (SITC categories 33 and 34) are excluded from all figures in this report.

Mineral fuels and erratic goods at the following SITC Division level (SITC2) are excluded from the CVM totals:

• 66 - Non-metallic minerals
• 68 - Non-ferrous metals
• 79 - Other transport equipment
• 97 - Non-Monetary Gold
• 93 - Special transactions

For more information on the classification of merchandise trade please see the United Nations’ Standard International Trade Classification.