Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland: Methodology

Official statistics in development are official statistics that are undergoing development; they may be new or existing statistics, and will be tested with users, in line with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics. These were previously referred to as experimental statistics.

More detail on designation of statistics can be found at: UK Statistics Authority - Types of official statistics (opens in a new window).

Users should be aware that official statistics in development may have a wider degree of uncertainty and require extra caution when interpreting results.

These statistics will remain in development while we:

• Further develop and assess the application of CVM to this data
• Enhance our understanding of the value of this analysis to users
• Consider the implications of reporting routinely on an adjusted series

We intend to issue at least four quarterly updates as official statistics in development and will continue to expand on the application of CVM to the analysis presented in these reports. We will re-assess the official statistics in development label at the end of June 2025.

We encourage users of these statistics to provide feedback by completing a short survey, which we will keep open while we consider the use of CVM in this series of reports:

Scottish Government Regional Trade in Goods Report - User Survey (office.com)

As part of the development of these statistics we have undertaken quality assurance with topic experts and other producers of official export statistics in the UK including; the Department for Business and Trade (UK Government), the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI), His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Office for Statistics Regulation OSR and the Welsh Government (WG).

Our intended developments include:

• Streamlining processing required to prepare results to ensure timeliness of results.
• Implementing CVM for results by destination.
• Assessing the accuracy of the estimates over time.
• Investigating alternative approaches for imputation of missing data. This is necessary for the seasonal adjustment.
• Implementing methods for monitoring the volatility of different series.
• Assessing comparability with CVM measures from other producers of UK trade statistics such as the ONS.

While we continue with the development of this series we aim to release results within one month of the release of HMRC quarterly updates for UK regions.

If you have any comments or feedback, please email exports.statistics@gov.scot.