Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland: Methodology

Real terms v current prices

Throughout Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q1 2024 we present estimates of exports in current prices for the most recent year and use CVM, which adjust for the impact of inflation, when describing change over time.  In this release, ‘real terms’ refers to figures adjusted for inflation using CVM. When referring to real term changes we describe these as percentage change.

The value of trade in pounds sterling is important for understanding the contribution of exports and imports to the economy. At the same time, changes to the volume of goods exported and imported are valuable in understanding the actual volume or quantity traded and how it changes over time. This analysis is useful for informing approaches to support exporting businesses.

When referring to real term changes we describe these as percentage change. When assessing the impact of different commodity groups on export trends, comparisons are based on changes in CVM indexed to the current price value of each series in the base period. These values are not provided in the report but are used to determine which commodity groups have contributed the most to overall changes.When considering the largest contributors to changes this is determined by changes in CVM indexed to the current price value of each series in the base period, to account for the fact that some series are generally more valuable than others.

Product categories which make up a larger proportion of total exports, or which have the largest changes in volume, generally make the largest contributions to the overall change in exports. For example, a 12% increase in the quantity of drink exports will make a larger contribution to the total than a 44% increase in exports of cork and wood products, because drink exports make up a much larger proportion of the total in the base year