Scotland’s International Goods Trade: Quarter 1 2023

Compared to the previous year, the value of Scotland’s goods exports to the EU in the year ending March 2023 showed strong growth, increasing by almost a quarter (23.7%, up £4.3 billion) to £22.3 billion. The value of goods exports from the UK to the EU experienced a 20.5% increase over this period, and Scotland’s percentage increase was larger than that of any other UK nation and the UK overall. When oil and gas are excluded, the value of Scotland’s goods exports to the EU experienced a smaller increase of 8.5% in the year ending March 2023 compared with the previous year, which is similar to the 11.7% increase experienced by the UK.

The increase in value of Scotland’s exports to the EU in the year ending March 2023 compared to the previous year, was primarily driven by an increase in the value of Scotland’s exports of oil and gas to the EU (up £3.5 billion, 38.1%). However, the volume of oil and gas exported only increased by 15.4% over this period, which suggests that an increase in the price of these commodities may have contributed to this large increase in export value.

Over the longer term, the value of Scotland’s goods exports to EU countries increased by 38.4% (up £6.2 billion) in the year ending March 2023 compared with the year ending March 2020. This was greater than the 23.7% increase experienced by the UK and was larger than for any of the other UK nations. When oil and gas are excluded, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports to EU countries increased by 29.8% in the year ending March 2023 compared with the year ending March 2020, which is greater than the 13.3% increase experienced by the UK excluding oil and gas.

Table 3. The value of goods exports to the EU by UK nation, £ billions, year ending (YE) March (Q1) 2020-year ending March 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Figure 4. Scotland saw the largest percentage increase in the value of goods exports to the EU of all the UK nations, but much of this was driven by exports of oil and gas

Percentage change in goods exports to EU countries by UK nation and UK overall, in the year ending March 2023 compared with the previous year

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Figure 5. Since the end of 2021, the value of Scotland’s goods exports to EU countries have been higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Value of Scotland’s goods exports to EU countries (quarterly), 2019 Q1 to 2023 Q1

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Exports of other goods to the EU also performed strongly in the year ending March 2023 compared with the previous year. There were value increases in exports of drinks (up £155 million, 10.1%), power generating machinery (up £142 million, 20.9%), and general industrial machinery (up £127 million, 22.3%). Of the top ten goods exported to the EU, only exports of chemical materials (down £40 million, 7.7%) and fish and seafood (down £0.5 million, 0.1%) experienced a decrease over this period.

Over the longer term, compared to the year ending March 2020, all of the top ten products saw increases in export value. However it should be emphasised that much of this is likely due to the impact of inflation, for example, although there was an increase in value terms, the volume of oil (down 19.5%) and fish and seafood (down 12.1%) decreased over this period.

Exports of oil, gas, and drinks accounted for almost two thirds (65%) of the value of Scotland’s total goods exports to the EU in the year ending March 2023.

Table 4. The value of Scotland’s top ten exported goods to the EU, £ billions, in the year ending (YE) March (Q1) 2020 to year ending March 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Figure 6. Oil was the top good exported to the EU, accounting for 44% of the value of Scotland’s goods exports to EU countries in the year ending March 2023
Scotland’s top ten exported products to the EU, year ending March 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023