Scotland’s International Goods Trade: Quarter 1 2023

In the year ending March 2023, Scotland’s international goods exports valued £37.2 billion, which was 21.6% higher than in the year ending March 2022. This percentage increase was larger than that for the UK overall, which showed a 17.5% increase in international goods exports during this period. Scotland had the second largest proportional increase in goods exports of all the UK nations behind Wales.

When oil and gas are excluded, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports saw an increase of 17.7% (£3.6 billion) in the year ending March 2023 compared to the previous year. Scotland had a larger percentage increase in international goods exports when oil and gas are excluded than the UK overall.

Over the longer term, there was a 14.5% increase in Scotland’s international goods exports in the year ending March 2023 compared to the year ending March 2020. This is similar to the 15.2% increase for the UK overall. When oil and gas are excluded, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports increased by 24.5% during this period, which is a greater proportion than the 10.3% increase experienced by the UK.  

In the shorter term, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports decreased by 9.2% (£909 million) in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter (Q4 2022). This was the first time the value of Scotland’s goods exports have decreased since 2022 Q1. Northern Ireland was the only UK nation that did not experience a decrease over the latest quarter. For Scotland, this drop was driven by a decrease in the value of exports of all commodities except chemicals.

Table 1. The value of Scotland’s international goods exports by UK nation, £ billions, year ending (YE) March (Q1) 2020 to year ending March (Q1) 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Figure 1. Scotland saw larger growth, in percentage terms, than the UK as a whole in the year ending March 2023 compared with the previous year.

Percentage change in value of goods exports by UK nation, in the year ending March 2023 compared with the year ending March 2022

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Figure 2. The value of Scotland’s international goods exports dropped in the latest quarter, for the first time since 2022 Q1
Value of Scotland’s international goods exports (quarterly), 2019 Q1 to 2023 Q1

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Of the ten commodities (defined by SITC 2-digit codes) with the highest export value for Scotland, eight of them experienced a value increase in the year ending March 2023 compared to the previous year. The strongest growth was seen in exports of oil (up 30.7%, £2.4 billion) and drinks (up 27.4%, £1.2 billion). The value of gas exports, Scotland’s third largest exported commodity in the year ending March 2023, also increased by a quarter (up 25.7%, £621 million). The majority (92%) of Scotland’s exports of gas were to Ireland. Of these top ten commodities, only chemical materials (down 5.7%, £62 million), and fish and seafood (down 1.3%, £14 million) saw a decrease in export value during this period.

Oil remained Scotland’s top exported good, accounting for over a quarter (27%, £10.1 billion) of Scotland’s total international goods exports in the year ending March 2023. Although the value of oil exports increased in the most recent year, over the longer term the value of oil exports has fallen by a fifth (down 20.9%, £2.7 billion) in the year ending March 2023 compared to the year ending March 2020.

Much of the increase in the value of oil exports was likely due to increases in oil prices, since the volume of oil exports increased by just 4.9% (compared to the 30.7% increase in value) in the year ending March 2023 compared to the previous year. A similar pattern was found for gas exports, which increased by only 6.3% in volume (compared to 25.7% in value) over this period.

Scotland’s top ten exported goods accounted for over three quarters (76%) of Scotland’s total international goods exports in the year ending March 2023.

Table 2. The value of Scotland’s top ten exported goods, £ billions, in the year ending (YE) March (Q1) 2020 to the year ending March 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Figure 3. Scotland’s international goods exports were dominated by oil and drink
The value of each of Scotland’s top ten exported commodities and the percentage of the total value of Scotland’s international goods exports, in the year ending March 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023