Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q1 2024

Goods exports to the EU 

Compared to the previous year Scotland’s goods exports to the EU in the year ending March 2024 decreased by 7% in real terms to £9.2 billion in current prices.

Over this period the greatest decreases in real terms were in drink (down 14%), general industrial machinery (down 12%) and telecoms & sound recording (down 21%). Drink accounted for around a third of the total decline in EU exports in real terms and was the largest driver of the overall decrease.

The largest positive changes in real terms for EU exports were seen in fish & shellfish (up 8%), organic chemicals (up 33%) and specialised machinery (up 13%).    

All of the top exported product categories to the EU either decreased or remained relatively stable with the exception of fish & shellfish (up 8%), professional & scientific instruments (up 9%) and specialised machinery (up 13%).  

Figure 4. Drink saw the largest decrease in goods exports to the EU

Current price value and real terms change (%) of Scotland’s top exported commodities to the EU: year ending March 2023 to March 2024  

Compared to the unadjusted series (which can be found in the accompanying Excel tables) the CVM analysis suggests that the impact of inflation on current prices for EU exports has been having a large effect since around the start of 2021. This can make it appear from statistics showing current prices that exports are increasing, while real terms analysis shows exports remaining stable or even declining since 2018 as in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Scotland’s EU and non-EU goods exports in real terms have followed similar patterns since 2018.

Index of Scotland’s international goods exports in real terms (CVM) by destination, 2017 Q1 to 2024 Q1. Average of year ending Q1 2018 = 100.

Over the long term Scotland’s goods exports to the EU have declined by 9% since the year ending March 2020 (around the start of EU withdrawal period). This compares to a 22% decline for the UK over the same period. The decline for Scotland over this period was driven by a variety of products including other manufactured articles (down 63%) and electrical machinery & appliances (down 43%). In the most recent 12 months, goods exports to the EU decreased by 7% in real terms.