Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q1 2024

Goods imports 

Compared to the previous year, Scotland’s goods imports increased in real terms by 2% to a current price value of £30.0 billion in the year ending March 2024.  The increase was largely driven by growth in imports of power generating machinery (up 25%), manufactures of metal (up 23%), road vehicles (up 17%) and metalliferous ores & metal scrap (up 61%). Power generating machinery was the largest increase, and accounted for around two fifths of the overall increase.

There were large decreases in real terms in organic chemicals (down 30%), medicinal & pharmaceutical products (down 21%) and chemical materials & products (down 22%).  

EU imports increased by 3% in real terms between the year ending March 2024 and the previous year, driven largely by imports of power generating machinery (up 93%).  Imports from non-EU countries remained stable in real terms Over this period. There were large positive changes in road vehicles (up 139%) and telecoms & sound recording (up 52%), but these were offset by negative changes in specialised machinery (down 27%), organic chemicals (down 25%) and power generating machinery (down 3%). 

Figure 6. Scotland’s EU and non-EU goods imports in real terms diverged during the pandemic and have only recently converged again 

Index of Scotland’s international goods imports in real terms (CVM) by destination, 2017 Q1 to 2024 Q1. Average of year ending Q1 2018 = 100.

Excluding oil, gas and erratic series.

From around the start of 2020, the EU real terms import series for Scotland has mostly remained below that of non-EU imports. The index for both EU and non-EU imports are below the 2018 base in the most recent period, therefore any increases in current prices for imports are likely to be strongly impacted by inflation, especially for EU imports.  

Over the longer term Scotland’s imports in real terms have been decreasing slightly (down 1% in the year ending March 2024 since the corresponding period in 2020). This decrease has been driven by EU imports which fell by 6% over this period, while non-EU imports increased by 3%.