Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q1 2024
This report contains inflation adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland.
International goods exports (EU and non-EU combined)
Compared to the previous year, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports decreased to a value of £23.0 billion in the year ending March 2024, a real terms decrease of 6%.
The commodity category with the highest export value in current prices in the year ending March 2024 was drink at £5.2 billion. This was followed by power-generating machinery at £3.1 billion, general industrial machinery at £1.7 billion, fish and shellfish at £1.1 billion, and other transport equipment at £1.1 billion. These were the most significant exports in terms of value in current prices.
The decline in Scotland’s goods export value in real terms since the previous year was driven largely by a 15% decline in the exports of drink, a 6% decrease in exports of power-generating machinery and a 15% decrease in chemical materials & products. The largest of these decreases was the decrease in drink, which accounted for around half of the total decline.
The largest growth in real terms out of all commodities over this period was seen in exports of organic chemicals (up 29%), medicinal & pharmaceutical products (up 14%), fish & shellfish (up 5%) and road vehicles (up 23%).
In the year ending March 2024 exports of drink and power generating machinery accounted for over a third (36%) of Scotland’s export value in current prices. Drink alone accounted for almost a quarter of overall export value (22%). Several of the top exported product categories (as determined by their value in current prices) in Figure 2 showed decreases in real terms, including a substantial 15% drop in drinks.
Figure 2. Drink accounted for around a fifth (22%) of the value of Scotland’s international goods exports, but decreased considerably in real terms
Current price value and real terms change (%) of Scotland’s top exported commodities: year ending March 2023 to March 2024
Changes in goods exports in real terms for Scotland compared to the UK as a whole generally conform to a similar pattern as can be seen from Figure 3, though since 2018 Scotland’s goods export volume have performed slightly better relative to the UK as a whole. The UK series has been included for context only, with the same commodity exclusions (erratic commodities) as applied to Scotland’s good exports. Commodity series which are considered erratic will not necessarily be the same in each region of the UK and therefore this chart should not be used to assess export Performance of the UK. The values presented here for the UK should not be considered an official statistic.
Figure 3. Scotland’s goods exports in real terms have performed slightly better than the UK as a whole relative to 2018
Index of international goods exports in real terms (CVM) for Scotland and the UK as a whole, 2017 Q1 to 2023 Q4. Average of year ending Q1 2018 = 100.
Since the year ending March 2020, Scotland’s goods exports fell by 8% in real terms. This decline was driven by falls in several product categories. Professional & scientific instruments (down 26%), general industrial machinery (down 17%) and office machinery (down 61%) had the most impactful declines but there were other product categories which also experienced large decreases. These drops were partially offset by increases in chemical materials & products (up 23%), organic chemicals (up 31%) and telecoms & sound recording (up 31%) over this period.
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