Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q1 2024

Real terms vs. current prices

This report is the first in the series to include adjustment for inflation using Chained Volume Measures (CVM). In this release, ‘real terms’ refers to figures adjusted for inflation using CVM. Chained volume measures of export quantity have been introduced to illustrate how exports and imports have been changing over recent years when high price inflation has been the driving factor in changes in the value of trade.

More detailed information on CVM can be found in the accompanying methodology report.

Figure 1 below shows the differences between the CVM and the current price (value) series for Scotland’s goods exports excluding oil, gas & erratic series (see Exclusions). The two series have noticeably diverged since the start of 2022.

Figure 1. The volume of Scotland’s international goods exports has decreased since 2018, but has increased in value over this period

Index of Scotland’s international goods exports in real terms (CVM) and current prices (value), 2017 Q1 to 2024 Q1. Average of year ending Q1 2018 = 100.

Excluding oil, gas and erratic series.

Throughout this report we present estimates of goods exports in current prices for the most recent year and use CVM, which adjust for the impact of inflation, when describing change over time.  When referring to real term changes we describe these as percentage change.

When assessing the impact of different commodity groups on export trends, comparisons are based on changes in CVM indexed to the current price value of each series in the base period. These values are not provided in the report but are used to determine which commodity groups have contributed the most to overall changes.

Mineral fuels and erratic goods at the following SITC Division level (SITC2) are excluded from the CVM totals:

• 66 - Non-metallic minerals
• 68 - Non-ferrous metals
• 79 - Other transport equipment
• 97 - Non-Monetary Gold
• 93 - Special transactions

See Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland: Methodology for more information on erratic goods.

As this is the first Scottish report in the series to include adjustment for inflation, the estimates in this report will not be comparable with estimates previously released in the series for Scotland's International Goods Trade. The accompanying tables show figures unadjusted for inflation (in current prices) and will be more comparable to previously published figures.  

Please note that we have not yet applied this methodology to all the analysis in this report. Figures for trade with individual countries are currently provided in current prices only as CVM analysis is still in development.