Scotland's Labour Market Insights: April 2024

People not in work

ILO Unemployment rate (LFS)

ILO Unemployment measures those who are available for and actively seeking employment.

The unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over in Scotland based on the ONS Labour Force Survey was estimated at 4.0 per cent in December 2023 to February 2024.

Unemployment rate by sex (APS)

The unemployment rate for men in Scotland has consistently been above the unemployment rate for women. In January to December 2023, the estimated unemployment rate for men in Scotland was 3.9 per cent and for women it was 3.0 per cent.

Figure 8: Unemployment rates are historically higher for men than for women in Scotland

Unemployment rates for persons aged 16 and over by sex, Scotland, year ending December 2004 to year ending December 2023

Source: Annual Population Survey , Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Unemployment rate by age (APS)

Across the series, the unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 has been consistently higher than the unemployment rate for any other age group. However, the current rate is historically low for this age group.

Figure 9: Unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 in Scotland has been continually higher than any other age group

Unemployment rates for persons aged 16 and over by age group, Scotland, year ending December 2004 to year ending December 2023

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Unemployment rate by length of time unemployed (APS)

In January to December 2023, an estimated 96,400 people aged 16 and over were unemployed.

For Scotland, the majority of those who are unemployed were unemployed for a duration of less than 6 months (65.5 per cent). This proportion decreased during the coronavirus pandemic to 50.6 per cent in January to December 2021, indicating that at that time there were more people unemployed for longer durations.

Being unemployed for 12 months or more is often considered long-term unemployed. 21.6 per cent of unemployed people in January to December 2023 were estimated to be long-term unemployed.

Figure 10: The majority of people aged 16 and over who are unemployed have been unemployed for less than six months

Unemployment levels for people aged 16 and over, by duration of unemployment, Scotland, year ending December 2004 to year ending December 2023

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Note: The estimates for 6-12 months for January to December 2023 are based on a small sample size. Estimates may be less precise and should be used with caution.

ILO Economic Inactivity rate (LFS)

Economic inactivity measures those who are neither in work, available for work or actively seeking work.

The economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years in Scotland based on the ONS Labour Force Survey was estimated at 22.6 per cent in December 2023 to February 2024. Scotland's economic inactivity rate was above the UK rate of 22.2 per cent.

Economic Inactivity rate by sex (APS)

The inactivity rate for men in Scotland has typically been above the inactivity rate for men in the UK since January to December 2012, with the gap widening in recent years.

The inactivity rate for women in Scotland had typically been below the inactivity rate for women in the UK until January to Decmeber 2015. However from 2016, the gap has narrowed and inactivity rates for women in Scotland and the UK have been similar.

Figure 11: Economic inactivity rate for men in Scotland in January to December 2023 was 2.5 percentage points higher than the inactivity rate for men in the UK, while the inactivity rates for women in Scotland and the UK are similar

Economic inactivity rates for persons aged 16 to 64 by sex, Scotland and the UK, year ending December 2004 to year ending December 2023

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Economic Inactivity rate by age (APS)

Economic inactivity in Scotland varies by age group. As may be expected, the younger and older age groups have higher inactivity rates.

Since January to December 2012, the inactivity rate for 16 to 24 year olds has been consistently higher than the inactivity rate for any other age group. This is due to higher numbers of people aged 16 to 24 being in education.

The estimated inactivity rate for those aged 50 to 64 had gradually decreased until January to December 2015 but has remained relatively constant since then.

Figure 12: Economic inactivity rate for those aged 16 to 24 in Scotland has been higher than any other age group since January to December 2012

Economic inactivity rates for persons aged 16 to 64 by age group, Scotland, year ending December 2004 to year ending December 2023

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Economic Inactivity rate by reasons for inactivity (APS)

“Long-term sick or disabled” was the main reason given for being inactive in Scotland. In January to December 2023, 31.6 per cent of inactive people aged 16 to 64 gave their reason for being inactive as “long-term sick or disabled”. This is higher than the UK rate of 27.5 per cent.

The proportions of inactive people who were long-term sick or disabled had been gradually decreasing over time. However, it has been increasing in recent years for both Scotland and the UK.

Being a student is the second most common reason for being inactive (an estimated 25.3 per cent of inactive people in January to December 2023). The proportion had been gradually increasing over time but has remained relatively constant in recent years.

“Looking after family / home” is the third most common reason reported for inactivty and has typically been decreasing over time.

Figure 13: Proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who are inactive and gave their reason for being inactive as Long-term sick/disabled had generally been decreasing over time while the proportion of students had been gradually increasing. Since January to December 2018, the proportion of students was relatively constant while long-term sick had been gradually increasing

Economic Inactivity for persons aged 16 to 64 by reason for inactivity, Scotland, year ending December 2004 to year ending December 2023

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Note: ‘Other’ reason for being inactive includes those who are discouraged.

Economically Inactive people who want to work (APS)

The proportion of the inactive population who want to work had been relatively constant over time but has decreased in recent years. In January to December 2023, an estimated 16.5 per cent (128,400) of inactive people aged 16 to 64 reported that they wanted to work – the lowest proportion in the series.

Figure 14: Proportion of inactive people aged 16 to 64 who want to work had been relatively constant over time. However since January to December 2017, the proportion has been gradually decreasing

Economic Inactivity for persons aged 16 to 64 by whether they want to work, Scotland, year ending December 2004 to year ending December 2023

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Online Job Adverts (Adzuna)

These figures are innovative estimates of online job adverts provided by Adzuna, an online job search engine. The number of job adverts over time is an indicator of the demand for labour.

The total number of online job adverts in Scotland in the week to 12 April 2024 decreased by 5% when compared with the previous week and is 32% below the level seen for the equivalent period of 2023 (week ending 14 April 2023).

Figure 15: Online job adverts have recently returned to pre-Covid volumes

Online Job Adverts (Index February 2020 weekly average = 100), Scotland and UK, week ending 7 February 2018 to week ending 12 April 2024

Source: Adzuna weekly online job adverts, ONS

Note: Week-on-week changes in online job advert volumes are outlined as percentages, rather than as percentage-point changes. Percentage change figures quoted in the commentary will therefore not necessarily match the percentage-point changes observed in the chart and the ONS Online job advert estimates dataset.

Employability Support Services (NOLB and FSS)

No One Left Behind (NOLB) and Fair Start Scotland (FSS) are Scottish Government funded employability support services. Both are distinct approaches to employability support, varying over time in support offered and groups targeted.

So far, there have been a combined 111,105 starts between Fair Start Scotland and No One Left Behind.

There have been 63,763 starts for FSS from April 2018 to September 2023 and 47,342 starts for NOLB from April 2019 to September 2023.

Figure 16: Starts on employability services in Scotland decreased over the quarter and year

Starts on No One Left Behind and Fair Start Scotland, by Quarter, April 2018 to September 2023

For more information, and breakdowns by equality characteristics, please see the latest Scotland's Devolved Employment Services publication: No One Left Behind (Official Statistics in Development) - Scotland's Devolved Employment Services: Statistical Summary February 2024 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)