Scotland's Labour Market Insights: October 2024

Key Points

The Scottish Government’s Labour Market Trends mainly reports on headline Office for National Statistics (ONS) Labour Force Survey estimates for Scotland.

This Scotland’s Labour Market Insights report contains more detailed estimates describing those who are employed, unemployed or economically inactive as well as information from vacancy and business insights sources.

People in work

• an estimated 73.9 per cent of those in employment aged 16 and over in July 2023 to June 2024 worked full-time, while 26.1 per cent of those in employment worked part-time
• in July 2023 to June 2024, a higher proportion of men were in full-time employment than women (86.8 per cent of men compared to 60.9 per cent of women)
• in July 2023 to June 2024, an estimated 315,400 people aged 16 and over were self-employed (11.8 per cent of all people in employment)
• in July 2023 to June 2024, an estimated 115,900 employees (4.9 per cent of employees) were employed on temporary contracts
• the 65 and over age group has seen the largest percentage growth in payrolled employees over the year to September 2024
• real median earnings for payrolled employees, adjusted for inflation (using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)), have grown by 2.2 per cent over the year to September 2024

People not in work

• the majority of unemployed people aged 16 and over have been unemployed for less than six months
• “long-term sick or disabled” was reported as the main reason for being economically inactive in Scotland. In July 2023 to June 2024, an estimated 32.0 per cent of those people aged 16 to 64 who were inactive gave their reason for being inactive as “long-term sick or disabled”, the highest percentage since July 2005 to June 2006
• in July 2023 to June 2024, an estimated 17.3 per cent of people aged 16 to 64 who were inactive reported that they wanted to work, the lowest percentage in the July to June series

People moving into work

• Adzuna online job adverts in Scotland in the week to 18 October 2024 were 2.0 per cent lower than the previous week
• ONS’ Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) data shows that an estimated 26.1 per cent of businesses reported experiencing difficulties in recruiting employees in August 2024
• No One Left Behind (NOLB) and Fair Start Scotland (FSS) are Scottish Government funded employability support services. So far, there have been a combined 132,443 starts between FSS and NOLB, with 70,513 starts for FSS from April 2018 to March 2024 and 61,930 starts for NOLB from April 2019 to March 2024

Important information in relation to data sources

The ONS Labour Force Survey is not a large and robust enough sample to produce reliable estimates for smaller groups of the population. There has also recently been increased volatility in Labour Force Survey estimates, further information is available in the ONS Labour Force Survey: planned improvements and its reintroduction estimates methodology article.

The ONS Annual Population Survey (APS) combines results from the ONS Labour Force Survey (LFS) with the English, Welsh and Scottish LFS boosts, providing a larger sample for smaller groups of the population.

ONS have recently conducted analysis to assess the impact of falling sample sizes over recent years on the quality of APS estimates. ONS state that although the APS estimates are robust at National and headline regional level, there are concerns with the quality of estimates for smaller groups of the population, for example local authority level estimates. This assessment of the APS estimates alongside the fact that APS estimates have not been reweighted to new population estimates has led ONS, in agreement with the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), to temporarily suspend the accreditation of all APS-based outputs. Further details on this can be found in the exchange between ONS and OSR:

Michael Keoghan to Siobhan Tuohy-Smith: Request to suspend APS accreditation – Office for Statistics Regulation (statisticsauthority.gov.uk)

It is still appropriate to use the APS estimates included in this release. However, users are advised to note the increased uncertainty around these estimates in recent years.

We will continue to be transparent with our users around the quality of the APS estimates used within our releases by providing guidance on the use and limitations of the data. Due to the falling sample sizes in recent years, please note the increased uncertainty around the estimates included in this release which can be assessed using the confidence intervals provided.

We will continue to assess the quality of APS estimates included within our publications and provide updates to our users.