Scotland's Labour Market Insights: October 2024

People in work

Employment rate (LFS)

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work) in Scotland based on the ONS Labour Force Survey was estimated at 73.7 per cent in June to August 2024. Scotland's employment rate was below the UK rate of 75.0 per cent.

Full-time/Part-time Employment (APS)

In July 2023 to June 2024, an estimated 1,975,300 people aged 16 and over were in full-time employment in Scotland while 696,000 worked part-time. Since July 2004 to June 2005, full-time employment as a percentage of all in employment had typically been decreasing until July 2011 to June 2012, but has increased again since then, being broadly similar from July 2020-June 2021 onwards.

Figure 1: In July 2023 to June 2024, an estimated 73.9 per cent of those in employment worked full-time, while 26.1 per cent of those in employment worked part-time.

Proportion of employment for persons aged 16 years and above by work pattern, Scotland, year ending June 2005 to year ending June 2024

Source: Annual Population Survey, July 2004-June 2005 to July 2023-June 2024 datasets, ONS

Notes:

1. Percentage estimates are based on those who responded to the survey question on whether they worked full-time or part-time.
2. Shaded areas represent the confidence intervals around the estimates.

Since July 2004 to June 2005, full-time working as a percentage of all employment has decreased for men (89.7 per cent in July 2004 to June 2005 to 86.8 per cent in July 2023 to June 2024) but increased for women (58.4 per cent in July 2004 to June 2005 to 60.9 per cent in July 2023 to June 2024).

Figure 2: In July 2023 to June 2024, a higher proportion of men are in full-time employment than women (an estimated 86.8 per cent of men compared to 60.9 per cent of women). A higher proportion of women worked part-time compared to men (an estimated 39.1 per cent compared to 13.2 per cent).

Proportion of employment for men and women aged 16 years and above by work pattern, Scotland, July 2023 to June 2024

Source: Annual Population Survey, July 2023 to June 2024, ONS

Notes:

1. Percentage estimates are based on those who responded to the survey question on whether they worked full-time or part-time.
2. Error bars represent the confidence intervals around the estimates.

Self-employment (APS)

Figure 3: In July 2023 to June 2024, an estimated 315,400 people aged 16 and over were self-employed (11.8 per cent of all in people in employment)

Proportion of people in employment aged 16 years and above who are self-employed Scotland, year ending June 2005 to year ending June 2024

Source: Annual Population Survey, July 2004-June 2005 to July 2023-June 2024 datasets, ONS

Shaded areas represent the confidence intervals around the estimates.

Although it has increased in the latest period, the proportion of people in employment who are self-employed had been falling since the pandemic. Scotland and the UK have both seen falls in the proportions since the pandemic.

However, as data sources rely on self-reported employment status from individuals responding to the survey, it is difficult to identify whether this reflects a genuine change in behaviour or simply a change in reporting. There are a number of factors that may have led self-employed workers to change their reported status without significant changes to their working patterns, including the introduction of the furlough scheme during the pandemic and tax changes in April 2021.

Temporary Employees (APS)

Figure 4: In July 2023 to June 2024, an estimated 115,900 employees (4.9 per cent of employees) were employed on temporary contracts.

Proportion of employees aged 16 years and above who are employed on a temporary contract, Scotland, year ending June 2005 to year ending June 2024

Source: Annual Population Survey, July 2004-June 2005 to July 2023-June 2024 datasets, ONS

Notes:

1. Percentage estimates are based on those who responded to the survey question on whether their employment was permanent or non-permanent.
2. Shaded areas represent the confidence intervals around the estimates.

Public Sector Employment

An estimated 594,700 people were employed in the public sector in Scotland as of June 2024.  Employment in the public sector accounts for 22.1 per cent of total employment in Scotland.

For further information on the official estimates of the public sector in Scotland is available in the Scottish Government’s Public Sector Employment in Scotland publication.

The Scottish Government recently published further economic analysis on the Scottish public sector, considering how this has changed over time and how it compares to other parts of the UK and internationally.

Public/Private Sector Employment (APS)

Note that the APS is not the official source for estimates of public sector employment, as this tends to overestimate the level of employment in the public sector due to self-reporting. However, the APS can be used to provide estimates for the characteristics of people employed in the public sector.

Figure 5: In July 2023 to June 2024, an estimated 38.3 per cent of women in employment were employed in the public sector, a higher proportion compared to 19.9 per cent of men. This proportion has been consistently higher for women than men over the time series.

Proportion of men and women aged 16 and over who are employed in the public sector, Scotland, year ending June 2005 to year ending June 2024

Source: Annual Population Survey, July 2004-June 2005 to July 2023-June 2024 datasets, ONS

Shaded areas represent the confidence intervals around the estimates.

Payrolled Employees (HMRC PAYE RTI)

This information is based on experimental monthly estimates of paid employees and their pay from HM Revenue and Customs’ (HMRC’s) Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) data.

Early seasonally adjusted estimates for September 2024 indicate that there were 2.46 million payrolled employees in Scotland, an increase of 0.2 per cent (5,000) compared with September 2023.  

Payrolled employees by age (HMRC PAYE RTI)

The latest available HMRC data published in October 2024 shows that payrolled employee growth varies by age. 

Of the 2.46 million payrolled employees in Scotland in September 2024, 32.1 per cent were aged 35 to 49 and 28.9 per cent were aged 50 to 64.

The 65 and over age group has seen the largest percentage growth in payrolled employees over the year to September 2024. The under 18 age group has seen the largest percentage decrease over this period.

Figure 6: The 65 and over age group has seen the largest percentage increase in payrolled employees since September 2023

Annual Percentage Change in Payrolled employees by age, Scotland, September 2023 to September 2024

Source: PAYE RTI, all age groups, seasonally adjusted, HMRC

Median earnings for payrolled employees (HMRC PAYE RTI)

The latest early estimates for September 2024 indicate that median monthly pay for payrolled employees in Scotland was £2,441, an increase of 4.9 per cent in nominal terms compared to the same period the previous year.

Real median monthly pay for payrolled employees in Scotland, adjusted for inflation (using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)), has grown by 2.2 per cent over the year to September 2024.

Figure 7: Real pay for payrolled employees had remained relatively constant up until the pandemic. However, real pay in September 2024 is higher than at the start of the coronavirus pandemic

Median Real and Nominal Monthly Pay for payrolled employees, seasonally adjusted, Scotland, July 2014 to September 2024 

Source: PAYE RTI, all industries, seasonally adjusted, HMRC and CPIH, ONS