Scotland's Labour Market: People, Places, and Regions - Statistics from the Annual Population Survey 2019

Section 4: Unemployment

4.1 Unemployment over time

Who is classed as unemployed under the ILO definition?

People aged 16 and over who are not in employment, would like a job, have actively sought work in the previous four weeks prior to their LFS interview and are available to start work within the next fortnight; or are out of work and have accepted a job which they are waiting to start in the fortnight following their LFS interview.

Scotland's unemployment level and rate decreased over the past year and are at a record low.

The unemployment rate in Scotland in 2019 was 3.5 per cent, below the UK rate of 3.9 per cent.

Over the year, the rate has decreased in Scotland (down 0.8 percentage points) and also in the UK (down 0.3 percentage points).

Since 2009, Scotland's unemployment rate has decreased by 3.4 percentage points, while it decreased by 3.8 percentage points in the UK.

There were 95,800 people aged 16 and over who were unemployed in Scotland, a decrease of 21,300 over the year.

The peak unemployment was in 2011 when the unemployment rate was 8.2 per cent and 221,300 people aged 16 and over were unemployed. At this peak there were 125,500 more people unemployed than in 2019.

4.2 Local Authorities

Model Based Unemployment** (MBU) Rates have decreased in all 32 of Scotland's local authorities since 2009

In 2019, the highest MBU rates were seen in:

• Dundee City (5.4 per cent);
• North Ayrshire (5.3 per cent); and,
• Inverclyde (4.8 per cent).

The lowest rates were seen in:

• Orkney Islands (1.9 per cent);
• Shetland Islands (2.2 per cent);
• Aberdeenshire (2.3 per cent); and,
• Perth and Kinross (2.3 per cent).

Since 2009, MBU rates decreased in all 32 local authority areas.

The largest statistically significant decreases between 2009 and 2019 were seen in:

• Glasgow City (down 5.8* percentage points from 10.5 per cent to 4.7 per cent);
• North Ayrshire (down 5.2* percentage points from 10.5 per cent to 5.3 per cent); and,
• West Dunbartonshire (down 5.2* percentage points from 9.6 per cent to 4.4 per cent).

* Statistically Significant

** Sample sizes for the unemployed cohort are relatively small compared to the employed and inactive cohorts. Consequently unemployment estimates at local level can have large sampling variations. To improve the quality of estimates for all local authorities, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) developed model based estimates. More information can be found on the ONS website: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/modelledunemploymentforlocalandunitaryauthoritiesm01

4.3 Gender and age

The unemployment (16 and over) rate has decreased at a similar rate for men and women in Scotland.

Since 2009, the unemployment (16 and over) rate for women in Scotland decreased by 2.6 percentage points from 5.8 per cent to 3.2 per cent in 2019, while the unemployment rate for men also decreased from 7.9 per cent to 3.8 per cent (4.2 percentage point decrease) over the same period.

The youth unemployment rate in Scotland decreased by 1.3 percentage points over the year to 8.3 per cent in 2019

The youth (16 to 24) unemployment rate in Scotland is the highest of all age groups at 8.3 per cent. However, a large number of young people are inactive due to being in full-time education.

In 2019 there were 30,000 unemployed young people, compared with in 2009 when there were 70,300 and in 2011 at the peak of the series there were 94,700.

4.4 NEET

8.6 per cent of people aged 16 to 19 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET) in 2019, almost the same as in 2018 and a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from 12.4 per cent in 2009. It also represents a decrease of 4.1 percentage points* from 13.2 per cent in 2010 (the peak following the recession).

The percentage of 16 to 19 year olds who are not in employment, education or training has typically been higher for men than women. The percentage of men not in employment, education or training was 10.4 per cent in 2019, higher than for women 6.7 per cent.

* Statistically Significant

4.5 Duration

41.8 per cent of all unemployed people (16 and over) in Scotland have been unemployed for 6 months or more

Of the 95,800 unemployed people in Scotland in 2019, 55,800 (58.2 per cent) were unemployed for less than six months (short-term unemployment).

This proportion is slightly higher than in 2009 when 54.8 per cent of unemployed people were unemployed for less than six months.