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Publication - Impact assessment

Scotland's National Strategy for Economic Transformation Programme 5: A Fairer and More Equal Society Equality Impact Assessment (Record and Results)

Published
31 October 2022
Topic
Economy
ISBN
9781805251422

Summary of results for the Equality Impact Assessment (EQIA) undertaken to consider the impacts on equality of Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation Programme 5: A Fairer and More Equal Society

Equality Impact Assessment (Record and Results)

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Stage 2: Data and evidence gathering, involvement and consultation

Age[12]

Evidence gathered and Strength/quality of evidence

Older People (Aged 50+)

The evidence tells us that:

  • Scotland has an ageing population. Scotland's population is increasing and older people represent a growing share. People are also working into older ages.
  • There is considerable geographical variation in the age profile of the population, with lowest variation in the cities and a greater proportion of older people in rural and island areas. This uneven age structure can be attributed to falling birth rates, an increase in life expectancy, and migration.
  • Older people are among those who have experienced disproportionate health, social and economic impacts as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the year to April 2020-March 2021, the employment rate for people aged 50-64 fell by 2.6 percentage points, the largest decrease of any age group.
  • During COVID-19, stereotypes about older people in relation to redundancy and caring responsibilities affected employer behaviour.
  • Despite general increase in internet access at home (42% in 2003; 93% in 2020), digital participation is generally lower among the older population and average internet use decreases with age.
  • Those aged over 50 face employment barriers in three key areas: communities, access to services and financial security. Ageism, exclusion and lack of willingness to recognise the skills and experience of the older workforce also present employment barriers for this group.
  • To promote ongoing employment and address employment barriers for older people there is a need for:
  • access to, and increased awareness of, flexible employment opportunities and reduced working hours;
  • financial security (including pension-related information);
  • life changes support and flexible measures addressing issues related to rising retirement age, such as caring responsibilities; and
  • ongoing training and education opportunities that are (financially) accessible to older people.

Young People

The evidence tells us:

  • Following the 2008 recession, there was a substantial decrease in the employment rate for people aged 16-24 and the COVID-19 pandemic has also adversely impacted this age group. The employment rate for young people had been gradually increasing since April 2013-March 2014 but decreased significantly between April 2018-March 2019 and April 2020-March 2021.
  • More recent employment data suggests some recovery. The employment rate of 16-24 year olds increased from 52.9% in April 2020-March 2021 to 56.4% in April 2021-March 2022.
  • Young people (16-24 year olds) are more likely to be unemployed than older age groups and are vulnerable to long-term employment 'scarring'. They are more likely to earn less than the real Living Wage, and are more likely to be financially vulnerable and in unmanageable debt.
  • Young people are more likely to work in sectors hardest-hit by COVID-19 such as retail, leisure and entertainment, and they are less likely to be in contractually secure employment.
  • With the arrival of the pandemic, young people in Scotland aged 16-24 experienced the largest increase in unemployment rate across all age groups, rising by 3.6 percentage points in the year to April 2020 - March 2021, taking the rate to 12.5%.
  • More recent data shows that the unemployment rate of 16-24 year olds has fallen over the latest year – to 9.1% in April 2021 – March 2022.
  • In 2021, the employment rate for young people aged 16-24 was 54.0%, almost 20 percentage points lower than the employment rate for the overall (16-64 years) population in Scotland.[13] This is partly due to greater education participation for this group.
  • 12.4% of young people aged 16-24 were not in employment, education or training (NEET) during the period from April 2020 to March 2021. Whilst this is an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous year, it represents a decrease compared to the peak period following the 2008 recession.
  • 11.5% of young people aged 16-24 were not in employment, education or training (NEET) in 2021 (Jan-Dec).[14] This represents a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous year (2020), but is 1.3 percentage points higher than 2019.
  • Whilst historically decreasing across all age groups, from April 2020 to March 2021, the underemployment rate was highest for young people (double the national average).
  • There has been significant improvement in business start-ups in the younger age groups. Scotland's Total Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) rate for the 18-29 age group has increased over time to catch-up with rates in England and Wales, standing at 9.5% in the 2019-21 period, broadly in line with England and Wales.[15] It remains unclear whether this is caused by young people's interest in pursuing an entrepreneurial career or by a lack of secure, well-paid employment opportunities.
  • Care experienced young people and care leavers are more likely to face challenges in the labour market than young people as a whole. They are over three times more likely not to have a job by the age of 26 and earn incomes which are 27% lower on average than their non-care experienced peers. They are also over one and a half times more likely to experience financial difficulties and are nearly twice as likely to have no internet access at home.

Source

Data gaps identified and action taken

No gaps identified.

Disability[12]

Evidence gathered and Strength/quality of evidence

The evidence tells us:

Employment

  • It is estimated that around one fifth of Scotland's working-age population is disabled. The prevalence of disability increases with age.
  • Disabled people are less likely to be in employment than non-disabled people and earn less on average than non-disabled people.
  • The employment rate for disabled people was estimated at 49.6% (Jan-Dec 2021), significantly lower than the employment rate for non-disabled people (80.8%).
  • The disability employment gap in Scotland[16] narrowed in the pre-pandemic period and over the year to Jan-Dec 2021, but remains large at an estimated 31.2 percentage points.
  • Disabled people are employed across all occupation types and sectors of Scotland's economy, however they are more likely to work in lower paid occupations.
  • Even pre-pandemic, compared to non-disabled people, disabled people were less likely to have access to fair work. They are also more likely to be underemployed than non-disabled people.
  • Available data also indicates that the proportion of disabled sole traders is relatively low in Scotland. In 2014, only 9% of SMEs (between 1 and 249 employees) in Scotland had an owner with a disability or long-standing illness, representing a decrease of 2% since 2012.
  • Employment barriers for people and disabled parents include health needs, caring responsibilities, unaffordable childcare, transport, inaccessible job adverts and application processes, workplace discrimination, lack of flexible working and adequate support and effects on benefits.
  • To address employment barriers for disabled people and promote ongoing employment for those able to undertake paid work, as well as enabling disabled people to work more hours and take on roles that are better paid or more suited to their skills, there is a need for a greater availability of flexible working and remote working.

Disabled parents

  • Disabled parents are less likely to be employed compared to non-disabled parents, with those in employment tending to work fewer hours. Disabled mothers are particularly unlikely to work full-time.
  • Children in households with a disabled person are more likely to live in poverty, and being in work sometimes does not prevent poverty.

Education and training

  • Disabled people are more likely to have no or low qualifications compared to non-disabled people and are less likely than non-disabled people to have qualifications at degree level or above. Even with a degree or higher qualification, disabled people are still less likely to be employed than non-disabled people without one.
  • Disabled pupils have lower attendance levels at school and are more likely to be excluded. Disabled young people are twice as likely not to be in a positive destination (education, employment or training) six months after leaving school, and three times as likely not to be in a positive destination by the age of 19.

COVID-19 impact

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has posed additional barriers on disabled people's employment and exacerbated pre-existing barriers for some, partly due to disabled people being more likely to work in industries hardest hit by the pandemic such as hospitality and distribution.
  • At UK level, there is evidence to suggest that disabled employees were more likely to be made redundant during the pandemic than non-disabled employees. Disabled employees were also more likely to have experienced a decrease in hours worked, and were more likely to report being asked to take leave - which includes unpaid leave.
  • Analysis by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation found that around 56% of disabled people in the UK who were employed at the start of 2020 had reported a loss of earnings by the middle of the year (2 percentage points more than non-disabled people). The analysis also found that disabled people were also more likely to report they had zero earnings by mid-year.
  • Research published by Leonard Cheshire suggests that the economic impacts of the pandemic are expected to continue to have an adverse effect on access to employment and financial security of disabled people.

Source

Data gaps identified and action taken

In Disabled people in the labour market in Scotland - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). Table (16) shows that people with mental health conditions are the most likely to be out of work compared to other long term health conditions. We need to better understand the range of experiences.

Sex[12]

Evidence gathered and Strength/quality of evidence

The evidence tells us:

  • Whilst substantial progress has been made over the past 20 years in Scotland in reducing both the employment rate gap and pay gap between men and women, outcomes for women still lag behind men.
  • Women experience a range of barriers in the labour market that lead them to be paid less on average than men, drive aspects of the gender pay gap and contribute to the existence of poverty. These relate to the type of job they are more likely to do (job selection), how much these jobs pay (job valuation) and whether they can move into higher-paid jobs (job progression). Age also presents a barrier to women's employment – for example, women transitioning through the menopause while in work can require additional support.
  • Women (and particularly minority ethnic women)[17] are more likely to be in insecure work[18] and are overrepresented in sectors referred to as 5 C's of cashiering (retail), care, catering, cleaning and clerical. These sectors have historically low pay, low progression and low status but can often provide more flexibility to allow women to undertake unpaid caring responsibilities.
  • While the gender gaps in participation in the paid labour market has narrowed over time, women are still less likely to participate, and when they do participate, it is more likely to be on a part-time basis and at lower management levels. The reasons for this include, but are not limited to, education (and expectations of traditionally male and female subjects), limited career options, and availability of suitable jobs with part-time and flexible working only available in certain occupations or sectors.
  • Women tend to do jobs that are low‐paid compared to those jobs undertaken by men. Gender segregation exists in many sectors in Scotland, and the undervaluation of 'women's work' such as care, cleaning and retail is a key cause of women's low pay. Women also tend to be less likely than men to reach senior positions due to factors such as childcare responsibilities and unequal division of resources and work at home.
  • Disabled women, minority ethnic women, and lone parents (the vast majority of whom are young women), are at an even higher risk of poverty, disruption to employment chances and good labour market outcomes. The Analytical Annex to the 'Gender Pay Gap Action Plan' and the 'Gender Pay Action Plan' published by the Scottish Government sets out the drivers for gender disparities in the labour market in more detail.
  • The Gender Pay Gap for full-time employees in Scotland has decreased significantly from over 18% in 2000 to 3.6% in 2021, however earnings from employment between men and women continue to vary with women earning less on average than men.
  • Between April 2011-March 2012 and April 2014-March 2015, the employment rate had increased at a faster rate for women compared with men in Scotland. However, since then, the rate of change had been similar for women and men up until April 2019-March 2020, after which both have decreased during the pandemic. In April 2020-March 2021, the employment rate for women was estimated at 70.5% (down from 71.4% in the previous year) and for men 75.2% (down from 77.7% in the previous year).
  • More recent data (April 2021 – March 2022) shows increases in employment rates, with the employment rate for women 71.3% and for men 76.4%.
  • Despite an increasing share of self-employment, women are still less likely to be self-employed than men. In 2020, only 17% of SMEs in Scotland with employees and 20% of sole traders were women-led. In terms of start-ups, as measured by the TEA rate, female entrepreneurship in Scotland has risen over time but remains lower than that amongst males, at 7.8% for women and 11.4% for men in 2021 . Women that are in self-employment earn much less through self-employment resulting in a large self-employment gender pay gap. Women tend to be self-employed in low-income sectors, re-enforcing occupational segregation seen in the labour market. Lastly, women who are self-employed are less likely to have a private pension than men who are self-employed, resulting in lower incomes in later life.
  • As a result of COVID-19, women are expected to face larger long-term negative labour market outcomes due to their over-representation in part-time and insecure work. Women were around three times more likely to work in a sector shut down during the pandemic than men, with single mothers with low qualifications being particularly overrepresented in these sectors. The pandemic has emphasised the need to address the issue of women's low incomes from social security and employment.
  • Over the course of the pandemic, women's unpaid housework, childcare, and unpaid care increased. Women may also find it more difficult to secure alternative employment and income streams following lay-off.

Source

Data gaps identified and action taken

No gaps identified.

Pregnancy and Maternity[12]

Evidence gathered and Strength/quality of evidence

The evidence tells us:

  • The relationship between lack of material resources and poor health, including during pregnancy, is well established, and the birth of a new baby can result in those close to the poverty line falling below it. Pregnancy brings a period of sudden increased financial pressure and sustained money worries have been reported following a birth of a baby, increasing a risk of child poverty.
  • Households with children aged 0-4 are at high risk of poverty. The risk, however, is much higher when the youngest child is aged less than one year old. Families with a new child are more likely to enter poverty.
  • Motherhood has a significant impact on the number of hours that some mothers can work which then affects their pay and income relative to non-mothers and men. Mothers suffer a big long-term pay penalty from part-time working, on average earning about 30% less per hour than similarly educated fathers. Some of this wage gap can be attributed to mothers being more likely to work part-time, or taking time out of the labour market altogether.
  • Young mothers tend to have lower educational levels compared to older mothers when their first child is born, which impacts on subsequent career prospects. They are less likely to be in work when their first child is 10 months old, with education being found to be a key predictor of later employment. When in work, they are more likely to earn a low income and more likely to receive social security entitlements.
  • Even before the pandemic, lone parents, the majority of whom are women, were more likely to be in unmanageable debt and/or financially vulnerable and more likely to live in deprived areas.
  • Single mothers with low qualifications are particularly concentrated in sectors most impacted by the pandemic. Households with only one earner are more vulnerable to the impacts of earnings reductions or job losses and lone parents may be less likely to have someone to share childcare with, making participation in paid work challenging.
  • Compared with fathers, mothers spend less time in paid work and more time on household responsibilities, and the differences in work patterns between mothers and fathers have grown since before the pandemic.
  • Since the start of the pandemic, mothers are more likely than fathers to have left or lost their job, or to have been furloughed, and spent on average two hours longer per day caring for children during lockdown compared to fathers.
  • In 2018 the EHRC asked YouGov to conduct a survey to understand managers' attitudes around pregnancy and maternity discrimination. It was found that:
    • A third (36%) of private sector employers agree that it is reasonable to ask women about their plans to have children in the future during recruitment.
    • Six in 10 employers (59%) agree that a woman should have to disclose whether she is pregnant during the recruitment process.
    • Almost half (46%) of employers agree it is reasonable to ask women if they have young children during the recruitment process.
    • 44% of employers agree that women should work for an organisation for at least a year before deciding to have children.
    • 40% of employers claim to have seen at least one pregnant woman in their workplace 'take advantage' of their pregnancy.
    • A third believe that women who become pregnant and new mothers in work are 'generally less interested in career progression' when compared to other employees in their company.
    • Four in 10 (41%) employers agreed that pregnancy in the workplace puts 'an unnecessary cost burden' on the workplace.
    • Half (51%) of employers agree that there is sometimes resentment amongst employees towards women who are pregnant or on maternity leave.
    • Around a third (36%) of employers disagree that it is easy to protect expectant or new mothers from discrimination in the workplace.
  • The EHRC (2016) note that young mothers are significantly more likely to experience pregnancy and maternity discrimination, with six times as many under 25 year olds than average reporting being dismissed from their jobs after they tell their employer they are pregnant.

Source

Data gaps identified and action taken

There are no statistics for employment outcomes or poverty for pregnant woman. Qualitative evidence has been considered instead.

Gender Reassignment[12]

Evidence gathered and Strength/quality of evidence

The evidence tells us:

  • Trans people face a range of disadvantages and vulnerabilities in their everyday life and in employment.
  • The lives of many trans people at work remain difficult, and they face discrimination, bullying and harassment at every stage of employment, including during recruitment processes.
  • Some trans people find getting into work difficult or challenging, with prejudice and stereotyping having negative impacts on their employment prospects.
  • More than half of trans people (51%) have deliberately hidden or disguised their identity at work for fear of discrimination and one in eight trans employees (12%) has been physically attacked by a colleague or customer in the last 12 months.
  • LGBT+ employees experience more job dissatisfaction and less psychological safety and are more likely to report that work has a negative impact on their (mental) health. Trans people are less likely to have had a paid job in the last 12 months (65% of trans women and 57% of trans men had one).
  • Trans and non-binary workers are particularly under-represented in the workforce overall.
  • Barriers and challenges to the inclusion of trans and intersex employees include lack of knowledge by employers and fellow employees, insufficient line manager confidence, stigma, practical considerations (e.g. toilet facilities, uniforms), lack of support and flexible policies. Barriers to accessing employment include fear of prejudice, application forms excluding non-binary identities, difficulties obtaining references and proof of qualification matching gender and new name, lack of awareness and transphobia from interview panels and feeling unable to be open about trans identity when applying for jobs.
  • Trans students experience harassment and discrimination at HE institutions and for some this has a significant negative impact on their studies, future plans and skills.

Source

Data gaps identified and action taken

No labour market or poverty statistics are available for this group.

Qualitative evidence has been considered instead but is limited.

Sexual Orientation[12]

Evidence gathered and Strength/quality of evidence

The evidence tells us:

  • Whilst attitudes towards lesbian, gay and bisexual people have become more positive over the past decade in Scotland, they continue to face a range of inequalities and disadvantage across a number of areas and settings including employment, healthcare and education.
  • Compared to heterosexual adults, lesbian, gay, bisexual or other adults were more likely to be younger, live in deprived areas, report bad general health, be unemployed and have a degree.
  • Despite studies showing equal or better pay for LGB people, they continue to experience discrimination, harassment and abuse in the workplace and in education. LGB employees are more than twice as likely to experience bullying at work than heterosexual employees, but many do not report this.
  • Four in ten LGB+ employees have experienced a form of workplace conflict in the past year, a rate significantly higher than for heterosexual workers. When conflicts, such as undermining, humiliation, shouting or verbal abuse occurred, the issue had only been partially resolved or not resolved at all.
  • LGB+ employees report poorer working relationships and job satisfaction compared to their heterosexual colleagues, a lack of psychological safety, and they were more likely to report that work has a negative impact on their health. More subtle discrimination, such as derogatory jokes, misgendering and stereotyping also occur.
  • SSCQ data shows that, in 2019, people who identified as 'LGB and other' were three times as likely to be unemployed compared to those who identified as 'heterosexual' (6.7% vs 2.2%). It is important to note that a higher proportion of those identifying as 'LGB and other' were in the 16-24 age group which is also the age groups where unemployment is higher.
  • At the same time, people who identified as 'LGB and other' were more likely to be in employment than those who identified as heterosexual (63.5% vs 58.0%).
  • Stonewall's LGBT in Scotland Work report (2018) found that 14% of LGB people have been the target of negative comments or conduct from work colleagues in the last year because they are LGBT and 11% of LGB employees wouldn't feel confident reporting homophobic bullying to their employer. The report also found that 6% of LGB people did not get a promotion at work in the past year because they are LGB.

Source

Data gaps identified and action taken

No poverty statistics or official labour market statistics are available for LGB people. However, data from SSCQ can be used to inform our understanding of labour market outcomes. We have also used other evidence sources, including qualitative evidence, to develop our evidence base.

Race[12]

Evidence gathered and Strength/quality of evidence

The evidence tells us:

  • Compared with the UK as a whole, Scotland's population is less ethnically diverse and its minority ethnic population is less likely to be born in the UK.
  • Compared with the white population, minority ethnic groups are more likely to work in accommodation and food services, be more likely to earn low income and less likely to have savings.
  • Poverty rates for people in minority ethnic households are higher than for the general population in Scotland and minority ethnic people are more likely to be in relative poverty after housing costs. Minority ethnic families are also most at risk of child poverty (38% of children in minority ethnic families were in relative poverty in 2017-20 compared to 24% of all children in Scotland) and families from some minority ethnic groups are more likely to have three or more children, putting them at higher risk of child poverty.
  • Some minority ethnic households are also more likely to live in the most deprived areas in Scotland compared to white Scottish/British households.
  • People with multiple protected characteristics (e.g. someone from a minority ethnic group who also has a disability) can face heightened barriers to employment. For example, 2019 data shows that a non-disabled white person is more than twice as likely to be in employment than a person with a disability from a minority ethnic group.
  • While the UK's minority ethnic employment gap has been narrowing consistently over time, there is less evidence of that same progress in Scotland. However, this may also be partly due to small survey samples in Scotland leading to greater data volatility in Scotland than in the UK.
  • The employment rate for people from minority ethnic groups in Scotland is consistently lower than the employment rate for white people.[19] The employment rate for the minority ethnic[20] population aged 16 to 64 was estimated at 62.1% in 2021 (Jan-Dec),[21] significantly lower than the rate for the white population (73.9%) – an employment rate gap of 11.7 percentage points.
  • The minority ethnic employment gap is much larger for women than men. In Scotland, the minority ethnic employment gap was estimated at approximately 23.1 percentage points for women and at -1.5 percentage points for men (Jan-Dec 2021) . A negative ethnicity employment rate gap is where the rate for the minority ethnic population is higher than the rate for the white population. The much larger gap for women than men may be partly attributed to cultural factors for particular ethnic groups.
  • Analysis by ethnicity shows a TEA rate of 15.5% amongst Scotland's non-white population, which is higher than for the general population at 9.2% in 2021. For some, however, entrepreneurial activity may be partly undertaken as a result of discrimination in the labour market.
  • Minority ethnic workers are more likely to work in some of the sectors most impacted by the pandemic and may be at greater risk of the 'scarring' effects of unemployment. Over a fifth of UK minority ethnic workers who were furloughed during the first lockdown in 2020 were no longer working by September 2020, more than double the overall rate.
  • The employment of minority ethnic people was disproportionately impacted by previous economic recessions, with profound implications for living standards and overall income and wealth equality.

Source

Data gaps identified and action taken

No gaps identified.

Religion or Belief[12]

Evidence gathered and Strength/quality of evidence

The evidence tells us:

  • Relatively limited evidence is available for this group.
  • In 2015-20, relative poverty rates were considerably higher for Muslim adults (52%) compared to adults overall (18%).
  • There is variation in employment rates by religion. Since 2004, the employment rate of Muslims in Scotland has been consistently lower than the employment rate for the population at large (58.1% vs 73.4% in 2020).
  • In 2020, the employment rate estimate for Muslim's was 58.1% compared to rates of 72.5% for Christian's and 74.8% for those with no religion. Estimates are also available for other religions i.e. Hindu's, Buddhist's and Sikh's, however there is a higher degree of volatility in these estimates, and less discernible trends, given sample sizes.
  • Muslim adults are far more likely to be in poverty than adults from other religions. Estimates for 2015-20 show that 52% of Muslim adults are in relative poverty compared to 18% of adults overall.

Source

Data gaps identified and action taken

No unemployment statistics by religion. Limited coverage of all religions in the available labour market and poverty statistics

Marriage and Civil Partnership[12] [22]

Evidence gathered and Strength/quality of evidence

The evidence tells us:

  • Relevant evidence available for this group is relatively limited, however the available evidence demonstrates links between poverty and income inequality in Scotland based on marital status.
  • Relative poverty rates are highest for single, divorced and separated adults, and lowest for married adults. In 2017-20, the relative poverty rate after housing costs was highest for single adults (27%) and divorced (or separated) adults (27%). Married adults were the least likely to be in poverty (13%), and widowed and cohabiting adults were in the middle (19% and 19%).
  • Poverty rates among widowed and divorced/separated adults largely decreased over the long term, whereas the trend for singles, cohabiting and married adults was broadly flat over time.
  • There are clear gender impacts associated with housing wealth following divorce and household dissolution. Divorced men are more likely to re-enter home ownership and less likely to suffer prolonged financial hardship in the long term than women. In the event of separation or the loss of a partner, women can be especially vulnerable to entering poverty.
  • Lone parents, the majority of whom are women, are more likely to be in poverty (38% of children in lone parent families were in relative poverty in 2017-20 vs 24% of all children). In addition, 40% of children in lone parent households in relative poverty also have a disabled person at home – amplifying barriers to overcome poverty. Lone parents also struggle to receive the Child Maintenance that they are entitled to from the non-resident parent.

Source

Data gaps identified and action taken

No gaps identified.

Contact

Email: NSET@gov.scot

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