Scotland's offshore wind route map: developing Scotland's offshore wind industry to 2020

THE STORY SO FAR

Context

Scotland is already a player in the offshore wind market as home to the Beatrice wind demonstrator project in the Moray Firth, the world's first deep water offshore wind turbine deployment and Robin Rigg, E.ON's fully commissioned 180 MW windfarm in the Solway Firth. With an estimated 25% of Europe's offshore wind resource ⁸ and long-standing expertise in offshore practices, such as oil and gas, Scotland has a competitive advantage and is uniquely placed to take an early lead in the development of offshore wind and make a strong contribution to the EU's renewable energy targets.

In the EU Renewables Directive ⁹ of 2009, the UK committed to delivering 15% of energy from renewable sources by 2020. This challenging target is a clear policy driver for significantly increasing the scale of renewable generation within our energy mix. In the UK, 5% of consumption was produced by renewable sources in 2008. In Scotland, a large proportion of electricity demand is produced by renewable generators, with 22% of gross consumption met by such sources in 2008. Scotland, with a Scottish Government target of 80% of gross electricity consumption to be met by renewable sources by 2020, is well-placed - and is willing and able - to make a significant contribution to the overall UK target of 15% energy from renewable sources by 2020. The Directive also requires Member States to develop National Renewable Energy Action Plans setting out how they will meet the 2020 targets.

The energy sector is a cornerstone of the Scottish economy, supporting economic growth, businesses, communities and jobs. The sector also plays a key role in tackling climate change and in delivering the transition to the low carbon economy ¹⁰ in Scotland which is part of the Scottish Government's Economic Strategy ¹¹ to deliver Sustainable Economic Growth.

Offshore renewables, and offshore wind in the immediate term, represents the biggest opportunity for sustainable economic growth for a generation in terms of manufacturing, supply chain, job creation and training opportunities. Investment in key infrastructure with projected maximum investment in offshore wind is expected to be approximately £30bn over the next decade and the creation of upwards of 28,000 jobs by 2020. New investment on this scale offers great opportunities for Scottish based firms to support the development of this growing sector. The Scottish Government is committed to the development of offshore wind in Scotland and capturing the anticipated economic benefits.

To best capture the benefits the offshore wind sector can offer Scotland, the Scottish Government will work in active partnership and collaboration with local authorities, the UK Government, the other Devolved Administrations and the European Union. Together all these players are working hard to meet the EU's challenging renewable energy and climate change targets and given the scale of the global climate change challenge, success will be realised through greater co-operative working.

SCALE OF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Scottish Territorial Waters sites

Ten offshore sites within Scottish Territorial Waters have been granted "exclusivity agreements" by The Crown Estate to develop offshore wind projects. A map of these sites is available at Annex C. Unfortunately, due to irresolvable radar issues, the partners involved in the Bell Rock project in the Firth of Forth have had to halt the development of this particular site, reducing the number of Scottish Territorial Water sites to nine. The granting of agreements for lease by The Crown Estate will be subject to the conclusions contained within the Offshore Wind Strategic Environmental Assessment ( SEA) ¹² in Scottish Territorial Waters taken forward by Marine Scotland and their appointed consultants, Halcrow. The plan assessed by SEA will require an appropriate assessment as part of a Habitats Regulations Assessment ( HRA), which will provide a starting point for HRA of the projects arising from agreements for lease. A fuller discussion of the SEA is available in the chapter on Offshore Planning and Consents. All projects will be subject to Environmental Impact Assessment ( EIA) and a HRA to determine if there are potential significant effects of a project or plan on designated European species and habitats.

Projects are as follows:

Total potential capacity of 5.8 GW

Round 3 zones

Round 3 is the largest offshore wind development project being taken forward in the world, positioning the UK market as the current leader in offshore wind. The potential scale of this round is 32 GW. Two zones are based in Scotland's Renewable Energy Zone, with the zones of search bordering on two of the Scottish Territorial Water sites. Scottish companies are also consortia members in two of the other major Round 3 zones adjacent to English waters. A map of these sites is available at Annex C.

Total potential capacity of 4.8 GW

SCALE OF RESOURCE

The Offshore Valuation Study ¹³ published in May 2010 is the first comprehensive valuation of the UK's offshore renewable energy resources to 2050. It is estimated that Scotland has 206 GW of offshore wind, wave and tidal resources - almost 40% of the total UK resource and greater than previously assessed. Harnessing just a third of this practical resource off Scotland's coast by 2050 would mean offshore installed capacity of up to 68 GW - enough to power Scotland 7 times over.

OPPORTUNITIES

The large scale development of offshore wind represents the biggest opportunity for sustainable economic growth in Scotland for a generation. Development and investment on this scale is similar to the emergence of Scotland's oil and gas industry in the 1970s. With the natural comparative advantage we have, it is anticipated that offshore wind development will provide a similar economic success story, with projected maximum investment in offshore wind of approximately £30bn in Scotland over the next decade, and the creation of upwards of 28,000 jobs by 2020.

Combining all of The Crown Estate's offshore wind leasing rounds (Rounds 1-3 and STW) brings a staggering 48 GW of renewable energy by 2020, making the UK the largest offshore wind market in the world. It is estimated that a supply chain of £100bn could arise to support this scale of development. Scotland is well placed to capture one third of this market, securing £30bn of investment for Scotland's supply chain. For instance, the National Renewables Infrastructure Plan ( N-RIP) estimates that between 2009 and 2020 approximately 3,800 turbines will need to be installed in North East England and Scotland.

Number of turbines anticipated to be installed per annum - Table taken from National Renewables Infrastructure Plan