Scotland's place in Europe: assessment of UK Government's proposed future relationship with the EU
Our assessment of the UK Government's proposed future relationship with the EU.
Footnotes
1 National Institute for Economic and Social Research
2 https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe-people-jobs-investment/. see the Technical Annex in Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment for the assumptions made on exports, productivity and Foreign Direct Investment.
3 The Prime Minister’s Lancaster House Speech on 17 January 2017, “… I want us to have reached an agreement about our future partnership by the time the 2-year Article 50 process has concluded.” [https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-governments-negotiating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech]
4 The Prime Ministers visit to Scotland on 15 July 2016, during which she also said she would not: “be triggering Article 50 until [she thinks] that we have a UK approach and objectives for negotiations - [she thought] it is important that we establish that before we trigger Article 50."
5 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/joint-ministerial-committee-communique-24-october-2016
6 https://www.ippr.org/files/2018-11/brexit-withdrawal-agreement-nov18.pdf
7 Slide presented by Michel Barnier, 15 December 2017 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf
8 https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe-people-jobs-investment/
9 See the Technical Annex in Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment for the assumptions made on exports, productivity and Foreign Direct Investment.
10 Export Statistics Scotland 2016 (January 2018) https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530678.pdf
11 The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union (United Kingdom Government, July 2018) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-future-relationship-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union
12 Export Statistics Scotland 2016 (January 2018) https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530678.pdf
13 Scotland's role in the development of future UK trade arrangements (2018)
https://www.gov.scot/news/strengthening-scotlands-voice-in-trade-deals/
14 Scottish Government (2017) Exports Statistics Scotland and SG Calculations
15 HMRC Regional Trade Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/regional-trade-statistics-interactive-analysis-second-quarter-2018
16 HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics, 2017
17 https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/marine/Publications/TopicSheets/tslist/economy
18 https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/marine/Publications/TopicSheets/tslist/economy
20 https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-needs-migration-policy/
21 https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe-science-research/
23 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/customs_controls_0.pdf
24 As outlined by Jon Thompson, chief executive of HMRC, in his evidence to Westminster Treasury Select Committee on 23 May 18.
25 Baseline – no change
26 modelled as Free Trade Agreement
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