Scotland's place in Europe: our way forward

Footnotes

1. The Institute for Government https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/brexit-six-months-to-go-final-WEB.pdf has commented that "The target for agreement on the terms of withdrawal and the future framework is the October 2018 European Council. But there are only 23 working days remaining until then, and a range of substantial issues still need to be resolved. An emergency European Council in November is looking increasingly likely, but even reaching a deal by then is far from straightforward"

2. https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-majority-brits-think-uk-government-theresa-may-doing-bad-job-on-brexit-second-referendum/

3. "Instead, I want us to have reached an agreement about our future partnership by the time the 2-year Article 50 process has concluded." https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-governments-negotiating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech

4. https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/9234

5. https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2018/01/6407

6. /publications/scotlands-population-needs-migration-policy/

7. /publications/the-future-of-agricultural-support-post-brexit-transitional-arrangements/

8. https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2018/08/6222

9. /publications/contribution-to-the-uk-governments-white-paper-on-the-eu/

10. For example: https://www.camecon.com/news/economic-impact-brexit-starkly-revealed-new-report/ and https://www.ft.com/content/dfafc806-762d-11e8-a8c4-408cfba4327c; In summary, the evidence on the effect of Brexit on the economy is almost unanimous: it predicts that Brexit will cost the UK economy in the region of 1 to 10 per cent of GDP in the long run, with greater costs for a hard Brexit relative to a soft Brexit. The mechanism driving these results is straightforward. The EU currently receives around 43 per cent of UK exports (House of Commons Briefing Paper, 2017). When the UK leaves the EU, barriers to trade will rise, causing trade and therefore GDP to fall. These findings come from HM Treasury (2016), OECD (2016), PWC (2017), NIESR (2016) and Dhingra et al. (2017) among others, in addition to the recently-leaked internal government report. These estimates often account for the benefits of new trade deals with non-EU countries such as the United States, China, and Australia. On top of this, other studies show that Brexit will cause a fall in inward foreign direct investment (FDI) of around 28%, leading to a 3.4% decline in real income (Dhingra et al., 2016, http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03.pdf). By http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/13/how-useful-are-the-estimates-of-the-economic-consequences-of-brexit/

11. Scotland's Place in Europe (Chapter 3) https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/9234/4

12. For example Nicky Morgan MP recently said "My preference, and that of many other MPs, is for the UK to follow the Norway model: to re-join EFTA and, through that pillar, remain in the EEA. There are a number of Leavers who also could accept this model - or would have done had the UK Government's red lines not been set down so hard and fast so early on in the Brexit process"

13. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/725288/The_future_relationship_between_the_United_Kingdom_and_the_European_Union.pdf

14. https://cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-june-2018

15. ONS - UK Balance of Payments (2018)

16. Eaton, J. and Kortum, J. (2018) Trade in goods and trade in services*

17. http://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publications/can-ceta-plus-solve-the-uks-services-problem/

18. http://www.nber.org/papers/w24107.pdf

19. http://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publications

20. http://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publications/brexit-and-regional-services-exports-a-heat-map-approach/

21. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-future-relationship-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union

22. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/donald-tusk-demands-answer-to-irish-border-question-next-month

23. http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/exiting-the-european-union-committee/the-progress-of-the-uks-negotiations-on-eu-withdrawal/oral/88890.pdf

24. http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/exiting-the-european-union-committee/the-progress-of-the-uks-negotiations-on-eu-withdrawal/oral/88890.pdf

25. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/04/rbs-boss-warns-risks-bad-brexit/

26. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/flights-to-and-from-the-uk-if-theres-no-brexit-deal/flights-to-and-from-the-uk-if-theres-no-brexit-deal

27. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal

28. http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=11676

29. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf

30. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-governments-negotiating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech

31. ONS - Business investment in the UK: January to March 2018 revised results, and OBR - Economic And Fiscal Outlook (March 2016)

32. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/16/chequers-deal-undone-after-britain-leaves-eu-michael-gove-brexit

33. Sargeant, Renwick and Russell, 2018 The Mechanics of a Further Referendum On Brexit https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/publications/tabs/unit-publications/The_Mechanics_of_a_Further_Referendum_on_Brexit

34. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

35. National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2018) National Institute Economic Review, 245, F11-F13, August 2018

36. https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be

37. https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be

38. https://institute.global/news/tony-blair-brexit-and-uks-services-trade

39. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/brexitpublic/brexitstudies.html

40. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/602055/IPOL_STU%282017%29602055_EN.pdf

41. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45546785

42. Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe http://ukandeu.ac.uk/dont-be-fooled-into-thinking-a-chequers-brexit-would-be-economically-painless/

43. Scottish Government (2018) Export Statistics Scotland

44. Federation of Small Business - https://www.fsb.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/finally-a-brexit-blueprint-but-much-more-work-to-do

45. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/Innovation/deloitte-uk-connecting-global-fintech-hub-federation-innotribe-innovate-finance.pdf

46. https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2018/01/6407/9

47. Analysis by Institute for Public Policy Research, 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/20/seven-in-10-eu-workers-in-uk-would-be-barred-under-brexit-proposals

48. Analysis by Institute for Public Policy Research, 2018

49. https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-08/issues_index_august18_v1_public.pdf

50. Ipsos MORI Research Index - August 2018, p. 3, https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-08/issues_index_august18_v1_public.pdf

51. The Orb Monthly Brexit Tracker asks how strongly people in the UK agree or disagree that having greater control over immigration is more important than having access to free trade with the EU. In the latest poll in early September 2018, 38% agreed that control over immigration is more important, while 48% disagreed (14% didn't know). This is one of the highest 'disagree' figures in the times series.

52. National Conversation on Immigration Final report, British Future and HOPE not hate, September 2018, p 32

53. https://www.regjeringen.no/en/dokumenter/work_programme_2017/id2536921/

54. See the report of the House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Devolution and Exiting the EU: reconciling differences and building strong relationships (July 2018).

55. See Chapter 4 of Scotland's Place in Europe (2016)