Scotland's Vision for Trade: annual report - June 2023

Footnotes

1 CGE modelling is economic modelling which predicts how the economy will react to changes e.g. new trade deals.

2 UK Government analysis shows that liberalising market access barriers could boost British exports as a whole by £75 billion per year – UK Government Department for International Trade (September 2020), Trade barriers removed to boost business: Trade barriers removed to boost business - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). This is far more significant than the expected benefits of any FTA. For example, UK Government analysis shows a UK-US FTA could increase trade between both countries by only £15.3 billion over a 15-year period UK Government Department for International Trade (March 2020) The UK’s Approach to Trade Negotiations with the US: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-approach-to-trade-negotiations-with-the-us

3 The BRIA process helps assess the likely costs, benefits and risks of any proposed primary or secondary legislation, voluntary regulation, codes of practice, guidance, or policy changes that may have an impact on the public, private or third sector. The goal is to use evidence to identify the proposal that best achieves policy objectives while minimising costs and burdens.

4 This is set out in a letter from the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs, Land Reform and Islands to the Prime Minister in May 2023: Scottish Ministers call for meaningful engagement from UK Government on issues of food security - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

5 This is set out in the UK Government analysis of FTAs including scoping assessments, produced in advance of FTA negotiations, and impact assessments, published following the signing of an agreement. Analysis of the UK-New Zealand FTA, for example, estimates a GDP increase of only 0.03% as a result of the deal when applied to projections of UK GDP in 2035 levels, while the UK-Australia deal is expected to add 0.08% to UK GDP over the same period. Impact assessment of the Free Trade Agreement between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and New Zealand (publishing.service.gov.uk) and Impact assessment of the Free Trade Agreement between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and Australia (publishing.service.gov.uk)

6 In April 2022, the Minister for Business, Trade, Tourism and Enterprise wrote to the House of Commons International Trade Committee as part of its scrutiny of the UK-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement: https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/107825/pdf/

7 This is set out in a joint letter in August 2022 from the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs and Islands and the Minister for Business, Trade, Tourism and Enterprise to the UK Minister for Trade Policy: New Zealand trade agreement: letter to the UK Government - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

8 This is set out a joint letter in June 2022 from the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs and Islands and the Minister for Business, Trade, Tourism and Enterprise to Scottish Parliamentary Committees on Economy and Fair Work, and Rural Affairs, Islands and the Natural Environment. https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/rural-affairs-islands-and-natural-environment-committee/correspondence/2022/uk-australia-letter-to-the-convener-28-june-22.pdf

9 Ibid.

10 UK-Australia and UK-New Zealand FTAs came into force on 31 May 2023.

11 Ibid.

12 In April 2022, the Minister for Business, Trade, Tourism and Enterprise wrote to the House of Commons International Trade Committee as part of its scrutiny of the UK-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement: https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/107825/pdf/

13 This is set out in a joint letter in August 2022 from the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs and Islands and the Minister for Business, Trade, Tourism and Enterprise to the UK Minister for Trade Policy: New Zealand trade agreement: letter to the UK Government - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)