Scotland's Vision for Trade: annual report - March 2022

Footnotes

1. Fossil fuel energy sector overseas – trade promotion support: policy – gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. UK Government analysis shows that liberalising market access barriers could boost British exports as a whole by £75 billion per year – UK Government Department for International Trade (September 2020). Trade barriers removed to boost business https://www.wired-gov.net/wg/news.nsf/articles/Trade+barriers+removed+to+boost+business+24092020151000 This is far more significant than the expected benefits of any FTA. For example, UK Government analysis shows a UK-US FTA could increase trade between both countries by only £15.3 billion over a 15-year period UK Government Department for International Trade (March 2020) The UK's Approach to Trade Negotiations with the US https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-approach-to-trade-negotiations-with-the-us

3. Supporting business: Business regulation – gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

4. The Supply Chain Development Programme is a key part of Scotland's economic recovery from COVID-19 and explores how to better leverage Scotland's public sector procurement spend to improve the capacity, capability and development of supply chains in Scotland. It targets sectors with sustainable economic potential, such as construction, renewables, hydrogen and generic medicines.

5.   UK Government analysis shows an increase in UK GDP of only 0.08% and 0.03% from completed FTAs with Australia and New Zealand respectively. See: Department for International Trade (2021) UK-Australia FTA: impact assessment – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) and Department for International Trade (2022) UK-New Zealand FTA: impact assessment – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). In contrast, Scottish Government analysis suggests that Scotland's GDP will be 6.1% lower by 2030 than it would have been with full EU membership. See: Scottish Government (2018) Scotland's Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment Chapter 2: Modelling the Impact of Leaving the EU on the Scottish Economy – Scotland's place in Europe: people, jobs and investment.

6. https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/42613/pdf/ and https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/106815/pdf/

7. Exports of UK food and drink in the first half of 2021 totalled £4.9 billion, which is 27.4% below the same period in 2019, as exporters face additional administrative costs and delays at ports.

8. Based on a 2019 report by the UN Ad Hoc Interagency Coordination Group on Antimicrobial Resistance.

9. The precautionary principle is the principle whereby policy-makers adopt precautionary measures when scientific evidence about an environmental or human health hazard is uncertain, ensuring a higher level of environmental protection through preventative decision making.EU-Lex (2016) The Precautionary Principle https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM:l32042#:~:text=%20The%20precautionary%20principle%20shall%20be%20informed%20by

10. Section 232 tariffs refer to a point of US law which enables imports to be restricted if they are deemed to be a threat to national security.

11. OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Tables – OECD

12. Total accumulated (gross) trade data can tell us what proportion of domestic consumption is made up of foreign imports. It can also tell us what proportion of final goods produced (output) will end up being exported. However, gross data cannot explain how much of the imported materials end up in the in the exported products.

13. Estimating the impacts of US tariffs on UK exports of single malt Scotch whisky – gov.scot (www.gov.scot)