Publication - Research and analysis

Scottish Budget 2025 to 2026: Carbon assessment

Published: 4 December 2024
From: Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government, +1 more … Acting Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate, +1 more … Energy and Climate Change Directorate
Topic: Economy, Environment and climate change, Public sector, +1 more … Scottish Budget
ISBN: 9781836910671

Estimate of the consumption-based carbon emissions associated with planned budget expenditure.

2. High-level Carbon Assessment of 2025-26 Budget

2.1. Portfolio Expenditure and Associated Emissions

15. Total estimated emissions attributable to the 2025-26 Budget are 8.9 Mt CO2-equivalent. Table 2 shows overall spend and emissions by the individual portfolios and how these emissions arise. Emissions remain broadly proportional to spend, except for Rural Affairs and Islands, where emissions per unit of spend are slightly higher. Health and Social Care, Finance and Local Government and Social Justice are the largest Budget items, with the highest emissions.

16. Expenditure is shown net of income, in line with the Budget, and emissions are calculated on that basis.^[2]

17. Direct emissions account for 35 per cent of the total; indirect emissions for a further 17 per cent. Around 48 per cent of emissions attributable to Budget expenditure are generated outside Scotland and are embedded in imported goods and services.

2.2. Emissions by Industry Source

18. Total emissions broken down by industry are shown in Figure 1. Some 27 per cent of the Scottish Government’s carbon footprint is caused by the use of Energy, Water and Waste, followed by Manufacturing (19 per cent) and Transport and Communication (17 per cent).

Figure 1 – Overall Government spending – Industry sectors share of emissions (domestic direct and indirect, plus imported GHG emissions)
A Pie chart showing slices of emissions by sector as a result of overall government spending. In order of largest to smallest these slices are Energy, Water and Waste (27.4%), Manufacturing (19.5%), Transport and Communication (16.9%), Agiculture, Forestry and Fishing (16.8%), Public Administration, Etc (9.4%), Mining & Quarrying (4.9%), Distributing and Catering (1.9%), Construction (1.6%), Finance and Business (1.2%), Other services (0.4%). — Figure 1: Overall Government spending - Industry sector share of emissions (domestic direct and indirect, plus imported GHG emissions)

2.3. Domestic and Imported Emissions

19. In addition to direct and indirect domestic emissions, the assessment takes into account the emissions generated outside of Scotland in the production of imported goods purchased as a result of Government spending (e.g. food, machinery, IT equipment).

20. Figure 2c demonstrates that imported emissions make up around a half of emissions from Budget spend. There is however a difference between the sources of domestic and imported emissions. Expenditure on Energy, Water and Waste accounts for the largest share of domestic emissions (followed by Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing), while expenditure on Manufacturing generates the largest share of imported emissions (followed by Energy, Water and Waste).