Scottish Budget - Draft Budget 2017-2018 devolved taxes methodology report

Chapter 8 - Conclusions

This report has presented the forecast assumptions and methodologies underlying the forecasts for the devolved taxes and the economic determinants of NDRi. The Commission's conclusions on the reasonableness of the forecasts are presented in their Final Report on the Draft Budget 2017-18. Their report, now in its third year, provides detailed comments, observations and recommendations and further analysis on the forecasting approach that we have taken.

The minutes of the 12 forecast challenge meetings between Scottish Government and Commission which took place between May and November 2016, that have resulted in the final forecasts, are included in an Annex to the Commission's Draft Final Report. These document how the various forecast methodologies presented above developed over the course of 2016. Though the Commission has concluded that the Scottish Government's Draft Budget 2017-18 devolved tax forecasts' and NDRi economic determinants' methodologies are reasonable, it has also set out further areas for improvement.

Over the first 3 years of forecasting devolved tax revenues in Scotland and assessing the economic determinants of NDRi, Scottish Government has welcomed the challenge from the Commission to improve the robustness of the forecasting methodologies. Scottish Government will continue to work closely with the Commission as it takes on its new role of producing the devolved tax forecasts, as well as wider economic forecasts, for Draft Budget 2018-19 onwards.

Finally, as further outturn data becomes available for the devolved taxes in 2016-17 and 2017-18, Scottish Government will continue to report on the comparative performance of outturn revenues in relation to our Draft Budget forecasts for 2016-17 and 2017-18.