Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator: 2024 Quarter 1

Results Breakdown

Composite Indicator

In Q1 2024, the composite Consumer Sentiment Indicator was -6.2, decreasing by 1.1 points compared to Q4 2023, indicating that consumer sentiment weakened over the quarter. This was driven by a weakening in four of the five sub-indicators of sentiment, covering expected economic performance, current and expected household finances and attitude to spending, which offset an improvement in the sub-indicator for current economic performance. Current economic performance was the only sub-indicator to improve, although it remains negative. Expected economic performance for the coming year remains the only indicator with a positive score (8.1), while the attitude to spending indicator remains the most negative indicator (-21.1).

Economic Performance

The Economic Performance indicators reflect how respondents consider Scotland’s economy is currently performing relative to 12 months earlier and how they expect it will be performing in 12 months’ time relative to current performance.

The indicator for Scotland’s current economic performance in Q1 2024 is -3.5, meaning that the balance of respondents consider the economy is performing worse than 12 months ago. The indicator has strengthened however, increasing by 1.7 points over the quarter and is 20.3 points higher than the same quarter last year, indicating that sentiment regarding current economic performance has improved.

The indicator for Scotland’s expected economic performance is 8.1, remaining in positive territory, and meaning that the balance of respondents expect economic performance to be better in 12 months’ time. The indicator decreased by 2.5 points over the quarter and is 3 points lower than in Q1 2023 indicating that sentiment regarding the economic outlook has weakened over the quarter and over the past year.

Household Finances

The Household Finances indicators reflect how secure respondents consider their current household financial position to be relative to 12 months earlier and how secure they expect it to be in 12 months’ time relative to its current position.

The indicator for current security of households’ financial position is -11.5 in Q1 2024, implying that the balance of respondents consider their current household financial security to be in a worse position than 12 months ago. The indicator decreased by 0.9 points compared to Q4 2023 indicating a weaking in sentiment over the quarter, but is 11 points higher than in Q1 2023, indicating an improvement in sentiment regarding their financial security over the past year.

The indicator for expected security of households’ financial position in Q1 2024 was -2.8, implying that the balance of respondents expect their household financial security to be worse in 12 months’ time. The indicator decreased by 2.5 points compared to Q4 2023 indicating a weakening in sentiment over the quarter, however is 6.9 points higher than in Q1 2023, indicating an improvement over the past year in household sentiment regarding their expected financial security.

Household Spending

The Household Spending indicator reflects how relaxed respondents currently feel about spending money relative to 12 months earlier.

The indicator for household attitude to spending was -21.1 in Q1 2024, reflecting that the balance of respondents are less relaxed about spending money than 12 months ago. The indicator decreased by 1.2 points compared to Q4 2023 indicating a weakening in sentiment over the quarter, however is 19.4 points higher than in Q1 2023, indicating that sentiment regarding spending has improved over the past year.