Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator: 2024 Quarter 2

Results Breakdown

Composite Indicator

In Q2 2024, the composite Consumer Sentiment Indicator was 2.4, increasing by 8.5 points compared to Q1 2024, indicating that consumer sentiment strengthened over the quarter. This was driven by an improvement in all of the five sub-indicators of sentiment, covering current and expected economic performance, current and expected household finances and attitude to spending.

Current economic performance (4.7) returned to positive territory for the first time since Q1 2022 indicating that on balance, respondents consider the economy is performing more strongly than last year. However, current household finances (-4.3) and attitudes to spending (-11.8), despite strengthening over the quarter, remain in negative territory.

Looking ahead, household finances expectations (3.6) also returned to positive territory for the first time since Q1 2022, which alongside a further improvement in expected economic performance (19.5) indicates that respondents on balance expect the outlook to improve over the coming year.

Economic Performance

The Economic Performance indicators reflect how respondents consider Scotland’s economy is currently performing relative to 12 months earlier and how they expect it will be performing in 12 months’ time relative to current performance.

The indicator for Scotland’s current economic performance in Q2 2024 is 4.7, meaning that the balance of respondents consider the economy is performing better than 12 months ago. The indicator has strengthened, increasing by 8.2 points over the quarter and is 19.8 points higher than the same quarter last year.  It is also at its highest level since Q3 2015.

The indicator for Scotland’s expected economic performance is 19.5, remaining in positive territory, and meaning that the balance of respondents expect economic performance to be better in 12 months’ time. The indicator increased by 11.4 points over the quarter and is 8.8 points higher than in Q2 2023 indicating that sentiment regarding the economic outlook has improved over both the quarter and the past year.

Household Finances

The Household Finances indicators reflect how secure respondents consider their current household financial position to be relative to 12 months earlier and how secure they expect it to be in 12 months’ time relative to its current position.

The indicator for current security of households’ financial position is -4.3 in Q2 2024, implying that the balance of respondents consider their current household financial security to be in a worse position than 12 months ago. The indicator increased by 7.2 points compared to Q1 2024 indicating a strengthening in sentiment over the quarter, and is 14.1 points higher than in Q2 2023, indicating an improvement in sentiment regarding their financial security over the past year.

The indicator for expected security of households’ financial position in Q2 2024 was 3.6, implying that the balance of respondents expect their household financial security to be better in 12 months’ time. The indicator increased by 6.4 points compared to Q1 2024 indicating a strengthening in sentiment over the quarter, and is 8.1 points higher than in Q2 2023, indicating an improvement over the past year in household sentiment regarding their expected financial security.

Household Spending

The Household Spending indicator reflects how relaxed respondents currently feel about spending money relative to 12 months earlier.

The indicator for household attitude to spending was -11.8 in Q2 2024, reflecting that the balance of respondents are less relaxed about spending money than 12 months ago. The indicator increased by 9.3 points compared to Q1 2024 indicating a strengthening in sentiment over the quarter, and is 20 points higher than in Q2 2023, indicating that sentiment regarding spending has improved over the past year.