Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator: 2024 Quarter 3

Results Breakdown

Composite Indicator

In Q3 2024, the composite Consumer Sentiment Indicator was -0.2 and decreased by 2.6 points compared to Q2 2024, indicating that consumer sentiment weakened over the quarter. Four of the five sub-indicators of sentiment, covering current and expected household finances, attitudes to spending and expected economic performance fell over the quarter while the current economic performance indicator increased.

The main driver of the fall in sentiment over the quarter was a fall in the expectation indicators for the coming year. Household financial security expectations fell 5.1 points to -1.5, indicating that respondents on balance expect their personal financial security to weaken over the next year. Similarly the expected economic performance indicator fell 5.8 points to 13.7, indicating that respondents on balance expect the economic outlook to improve over the coming year, but to a lesser extent that the previous quarter.

Sentiment on current household finances (-4.7) and attitudes to spending (‑14.1) also both fell over the quarter (0.4 points and 2.4 points respectively) and remain in negative territory. This indicates that, on balance, respondents feel increasingly less secure about their household finances and less relaxed about spending compared to a year ago.

Current economic performance (5.6) was the only sub-indicator to improve over the quarter, increasing by 0.9 points and remains in positive territory for a second consecutive quarter, indicating that on balance, respondents consider the economy is currently performing more strongly than last year. Furthermore,  the indicator is at its highest level  since Q3 2015.

Economic Performance

The Economic Performance indicators reflect how respondents consider Scotland’s economy is currently performing relative to 12 months earlier and how they expect it will be performing in 12 months’ time relative to current performance.

The indicator for Scotland’s current economic performance in Q3 2024 is 5.6, meaning that the balance of respondents consider the economy is performing better than 12 months ago. The indicator has strengthened over the quarter and the year, increasing by 0.9 points and 18.5 points respectively. It is also at its highest level since Q3 2015.

The indicator for Scotland’s expected economic performance is 13.7, remaining in positive territory, and indicates that the balance of respondents expect economic performance to be better in 12 months’ time. The indicator decreased by 5.8 points over the quarter but is 3.9 points higher than in Q3 2023 indicating that sentiment regarding the economic outlook weakened over the quarter, however has improved over the past year.

Household Finances

The Household Finances indicators reflect how secure respondents consider their current household financial position to be relative to 12 months earlier and how secure they expect it to be in 12 months’ time relative to its current position.

The indicator for household attitude to spending was -14.1 in Q3 2024, reflecting that the balance of respondents are less relaxed about spending money than 12 months ago. The indicator fell by 2.4 points compared to Q2 2024 indicating a weakening in sentiment over the quarter, but is 13.4 points higher than in Q3 2023, indicating that sentiment regarding spending has improved over the past year.