Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator: 2024 Quarter 4

Results Breakdown

Composite Indicator

In Q4 2024, the composite Consumer Sentiment Indicator was -4.9 and decreased by 4.7 points compared to Q3 2024 indicating that consumer sentiment weakened over the quarter. All of the five sub-indicators of sentiment covering current and expected economic performance and household finances, and attitudes to spending fell over the quarter.

The main driver of the fall in sentiment over the quarter was a fall in sentiment on the economy. Sentiment on current economic performance stood at -1.1 while expectations for the economy remained positive at 6.9, with both measures falling by 6.8 points from the previous quarter. This indicates that, on balance, respondents feel the economy is performing less well when compared to a year ago but remain optimistic that economic conditions will improve over the coming year, albeit to a lesser extent than was reported in the previous quarter.

Sentiment on current household finances (-8.6) and attitudes to spending (‑17.7) also both fell over the quarter (3.9 points and 3.6 points respectively) and remain in negative territory. This indicates that, on balance, respondents feel increasingly less secure about their household finances and less relaxed about spending compared to a year ago.

Expected household financial conditions (-3.8) also fell over the quarter, decreasing by 2.4 points, indicating that, on balance, respondents expect their personal financial circumstances to be worse in a year’s time.

Economic Performance

The Economic Performance indicators reflect how respondents consider Scotland’s economy is currently performing relative to 12 months earlier and how they expect it will be performing in 12 months’ time relative to current performance.

The indicator for Scotland’s current economic performance in Q4 2024 is ‑1.1, meaning that the balance of respondents consider the economy is performing worse than 12 months ago. The indicator weakened over the quarter by 6.8 points however increased by 4.1 points compared to Q4 2023.

The indicator for Scotland’s expected economic performance is 6.9 and remained in positive territory, which indicates that the balance of respondents expect economic performance to be better in 12 months’ time. The indicator decreased by 6.8 points over the quarter and is also 3.6 points lower than in Q4 2023 suggesting that while sentiment has weakened over the last year, it remains positive overall.

Household Finances

The Household Finances indicators reflect how secure respondents consider their current household financial position to be relative to 12 months earlier and how secure they expect it to be in 12 months’ time relative to its current position.

The indicator for current security of households’ financial position is -8.6 in Q4 2024, implying that the balance of respondents consider their current household financial security to be in a worse position than 12 months ago. The indicator fell by 3.9 points compared to Q3 2024 indicating a weakening in sentiment over the quarter, but is 1.9 points higher than in Q4 2023, indicating a slight improvement over the past year.

The indicator for expected security of households’ financial position in Q4 2024 is -3.8, implying that the balance of respondents expect their household financial security to be less secure in 12 months’ time. The indicator decreased by 2.4 points compared to Q3 2024, and is 3.6 points lower than in Q4 2023, indicating declining sentiment over the past quarter and year.

Household Spending

The Household Spending indicator reflects how relaxed respondents currently feel about spending money relative to 12 months earlier.

The indicator for household attitude to spending was -17.7 in Q4 2024, reflecting that the balance of respondents are less relaxed about spending money than 12 months ago. The indicator fell by 3.6 points compared to Q3 2024 indicating a weakening in sentiment over the quarter, but is 2.2 points higher than in Q4 2023, indicating that sentiment regarding spending has improved over the past year.