Scottish Crime and Justice Survey 2021/22: Main Findings

3. Overview of crime in Scotland

In this report, overall crime measured by the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) is a product of two distinct groups being combined – violent and property crime^[9] (see section below).

Crime groups measured by the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey

Violent crime includes the following distinct groups:

• assault (includes serious assault, minor assault with injury, minor assault with no or negligible injury, and attempted assault)
• robbery

Property crime includes the following distinct groups:

• housebreaking
• personal theft (excluding robbery)
• other household theft (including bicycle theft)
• all motor vehicle related theft (including theft and attempted theft of and from a vehicle)
• vandalism (including motor vehicle and property vandalism)

Further details on each of these groups is provided in the Technical Report.

What was the estimated volume of crime in Scotland in 2021/22?

The SCJS provides an estimate of the number of crimes (or incidence) occurring within Scotland, rounded to the nearest 1,000 crimes. Taking property and violent crime together, the SCJS estimates that overall there were 494,000 crimes experienced by adults in Scotland in 2021/22.

As a sample survey of the general public, SCJS results are estimated values with margins of error, rather than exact counts. Further information on the process used to calculate estimates is contained within the Technical Report. Taking into account confidence intervals, the SCJS estimates that there were between 428,000 and 560,000 incidents of crime in Scotland in 2021/22. The analysis which follows below is focused on the best estimates across each survey year^[10].

The SCJS estimates that the level of crime experienced in Scotland has fallen by 53% since 2008/09. Figure 3.1 displays the trend in the estimated number of SCJS crimes since 2008/09, highlighting a marked decline in crime over the last 15 or so years^[11]. Table 3.1 shows the relevant upper and lower estimates for SCJS crime and the best estimates for violent crime and property crime, which are discussed in more detail in later chapters.

Figure 3.1: The level of crime experienced by adults has fallen by 53% since 2008/09 but is unchanged since 2019/20.

Base: SCJS 2008/09 (16,000); 2009/10 (16,040); 2010/11 (13,010); 2012/13 (12,050); 2014/15 (11,470); 2016/17 (5,570); 2017/18 (5,480); 2018/19 (5,540); 2019/20 (5,570); 2021/22 (5,520). Variable: INCSURVEYCRIME.

Table 3.1 looks at results from key comparator years^[12] more closely and shows that the estimated number of incidents of overall crime experienced by adults:

• decreased by 53% between 2008/09 and 2021/22, from 1,045,000 to 494,000 – an estimated decrease of around 551,000 incidents
• has shown no change since the last SCJS in 2019/20 – the apparent decrease from 563,000 incidents is not statistically significant

Table 3.1: The estimated number of SCJS crimes has fallen by over half since 2008/09 but is unchanged since 2019/20.

Base: SCJS 2008/09 (16,000); 2019/20 (5,570); 2021/22 (5,520). Variable: INCSURVEYCRIME.

While no change was found in overall crime since 2019/20, this is not an unusual finding from an annual survey like the SCJS. Where crime estimates are based on the experiences of a relatively small number of people, it can often be challenging to detect significant changes between adjacent survey years. That said, where they exist, the SCJS can often identify significant changes and trends over the medium and longer-term.

Looking over a slightly longer period, the estimated number of incidents of overall crime experienced by adults has decreased by 18% since 2017/18, falling from 602,000 incidents to 494,000 in 2021/22. The estimated number of incidents of SCJS crime was lower in 2021/22 than all years between 2008/09 and 2017/18 however has shown no change compared to the years since (2018/19 and 2019/20), suggesting that more recently the decreasing trend in overall crime may have started to level off.

What was the prevalence of victimisation in Scotland in 2021/22?

Consistent with previous years, the SCJS results show that most adults were not victims of any crime in 2021/22, with 10.0% estimated to have experienced at least one SCJS (property or violent) crime.

As with incident numbers, crime prevalence rates are also estimates derived from a sample survey of the population with associated margins of error around them. Taking into account these confidence intervals, between 9.1% and 11.0% of the adult population were estimated to have experienced at least one SCJS crime in 2021/22, with 10.0% representing the best estimate^[13].

Again, as with incident counts, analysis from this point onwards will focus on the best estimates for results across the survey for each year^[14].

The proportion of adults experiencing crime has fallen from 20.4% in 2008/09 to 10.0% in 2021/22. In other words, around one-in-ten adults were victims of crime in 2021/22 compared to one-in-five in 2008/09.

Since the last SCJS, the proportion of adults experiencing crime has fallen from 11.9% in 2019/20 as shown in Figure 3.2 to the lowest level in the last 15 or so years.

Figure 3.2: The proportion of adults experiencing crime fell by 10.4 percentage points since 2008/09 and 1.9 percentage points since 2019/20.

Base: SCJS 2008/09 (16,000); 2009/10 (16,040); 2010/11 (13,010); 2012/13 (12,050); 2014/15 (11,470); 2016/17 (5,570); 2017/18 (5,480); 2018/19 (5,540); 2019/20 (5,570); 2021/22 (5,520). Variable: PREVSURVEYCRIME.

What type of crime was experienced in Scotland in 2021/22?

The SCJS collects data on the adult population’s experiences of two main types of crime – property and violent crime. It is estimated that 73% of all crime measured by the survey in 2021/22 was property-related, with the remaining 27% being violent incidents. This differs from 66% and 34%, respectively, in 2019/20 but is similar to both 2017/18 and 2018/19 (29% and 71% respectively in both years).The majority of violent incidents are from ‘lower-harm’ categories.

Figure 3.3 below shows the proportion of all crime accounted for by key sub-categories of property and violent crime. Vandalism accounted for one-quarter (25%) of all crime measured by the 2021/22 SCJS, with a further quarter (25%) relating to Other household theft, including bicycle theft. Minor assault with no or negligible injury represented one-fifth of all incidents (19%). Other forms of violence represented relatively small proportions of all crime in Scotland.

Figure 3.3: Almost three-quarters of crime in 2021/22 was property related with half comprising other household theft and vandalism combined.

Base: 2021/22 (5,520). Variable: Prevalence (PREV) variables.

The SCJS has also consistently shown that adults in Scotland are much more likely to have experienced property crime than violent crime in any given year. It is estimated that 8.7% of adults were victims of property crime in 2021/22, whilst 1.7% experienced violent crime. The prevalence of both property crime and violent crime have fallen since 2008/09.

More detailed results about the extent, prevalence and nature of violent and property crime experienced in Scotland in 2021/22, including how experiences varied across the population and trends over time are provided in the respective ‘Focus on violent crime’ and ‘Focus on property crime’ chapters of this report.

How did the likelihood of experiencing crime in 2021/22 vary across the population?

The proportion of adults who were victims of any SCJS crime in 2021/22 varied according to demographic and geographic characteristics. For instance, as shown in Figure 3.4, the likelihood of experiencing crime in 2021/22:

• was highest for those aged 16 to 24 and lowest for those aged 60 and over
• was greater for adults in the 15% most deprived areas compared to those living in the rest of Scotland
• was higher in urban areas compared to rural locations
• was higher for disabled adults than those who are not

There was no significant difference in the proportion of males and females who were victims of SCJS crime in 2021/22, at 10.2% and 9.9% respectively.

Figure 3.4: The likelihood of experiencing crime in 2021/22 was higher for those living in both deprived and urban locations and for younger adults.

Base: 2021/22 (5,520). Variables: PREVSURVEYCRIME, QDAGE, SIMD_TOP, URBRUR.

The crime victimisation rate has decreased since 2008/09 across many key groups in the population – including both males and females; all age groups shown above; those living in the most deprived areas as well as those living elsewhere in Scotland, and adults in both urban and rural locations^[15] and those who were and were not disabled.

For example, the proportion of those in the 15% most deprived areas experiencing crime has fallen from 26.0% in 2008/09 to 13.7% in 2021/22. Over the same period, the prevalence rate for those living elsewhere in Scotland dropped from 19.4% to 9.4%.

The SCJS detected a decrease compared to 2019/20 in the overall likelihood of being a victim of crime amongst females (from 12.3%), those aged 60 or over (from 6.9%), and those not living in the 15% most deprived areas in Scotland (from 11.2%).

What can the SCJS tell us about multiple victimisation?

The SCJS also enables us to further explore how experiences varied amongst victims and examine the concentration of crime, including what proportion of victims experienced more than one crime (of any type) during the year. This is known as ‘multiple victimisation’. Further information about the approach taken to process and derive SCJS results, including on multiple victimisation, is provided in the Technical Report.

Multiple victimisation examines the proportion of the population that experienced two or more property crimes or two or more violent crimes (known as repeat victimisation), or have been victims of both crime types (i.e. two or more incidents of any crime).

Repeat victimisation is a sub-set of multiple victimisation, the proportion of adults who have been the victim of the same type of crime more than once (e.g. repeat property crimes). Findings on the extent of repeat victimisation for violent and property crime are presented separately in the relevant ‘Focus on violent crime’ and ‘Focus on property crime’ chapters of this report.

What proportion of adults experienced multiple victimisation in Scotland in 2021/22?

As discussed above, the majority of adults (90.0%) did not experience any crime measured by the SCJS in 2021/22, and conversely 10.0% were victims of at least one property or violent crime.

Examining the volume of crime experienced by individual victims more closely reveals that under one-in-ten adults (7.0%) were victims of a single incident of SCJS crime in 2021/22, accounting for 41% of all crime.

It is therefore estimated that multiple victimisation affected 3.0% of the adult population in 2021/22, and that this group experienced around three fifths (59%) of all SCJS crime during the survey year. These victims are estimated to have experienced two crimes each on average.

Table 3.2: 3% of adults experienced two or more crimes during 2021/22, accounting for three-fifths of all SCJS crime over the year.

Base: SCJS 2021/22 (5,520). Variables: INCSURVEYCRIME, PREVSURVEYCRIME.

Figure 3.5 explores trends in single and multiple victimisation over time. It highlights that between 2008/09 and 2021/22 there were decreases in the proportion of adults experiencing:

• single incidents of SCJS crime – from 12.2% to 7.0%
• multiple victimisation (two or more incidents of SCJS crime) – from 8.2% to 3.0%
• high frequency multiple victimisation (five or more incidents of SCJS crime) – from 1.5% to 0.4%

The fall in the various levels of victimisation since 2008/09 has occurred alongside a fall in the overall SCJS crime victimisation rate^[16] over this period, as discussed previously.

Since the last SCJS in 2019/20, there was a significant decrease in the proportion of adults experiencing single victimisation (from 8.3% to 7.0%). There was no change in the proportion experiencing multiple victimisation – any apparent differences shown in Figure 3.5 are not statistically significant.

Figure 3.5: The proportion of adults experiencing multiple victimisation fell from 8.2% to 3.0% between 2008/09 and 2021/22 and high frequency multiple victimisation more than halved over this period.

Base: SCJS 2008/09 (16,000); 2009/10 (16,040); 2010/11 (13,010); 2012/13 (12,050); 2014/15 (11,470); 2016/17 (5,570); 2017/18 (5,480); 2018/19 (5,540); 2019/20 (5,570); 2021/22 (5,520). Variables: INCSURVEYCRIME, PREVSURVEYCRIME.

In summary these findings show that, compared to 2008/09, adults in 2021/22 were less likely to be victims of:

• at least one SCJS crime
• one SCJS crime specifically
• more than one SCJS crime

What proportion of crime was reported to the police in 2021/22?

One of the key strengths of the SCJS is that it provides evidence on the extent of crime experienced by the population, including incidents which are not reported to the police. For this reason, the SCJS and police recorded crime statistics are complementary sources that, together, present a fuller picture of crime in Scotland. The ‘Bringing together crime statistics’ chapter of this report explores the differences and similarities between the SCJS and recorded crime (including trends over time) in more detail.

The SCJS estimates that 29% of all SCJS (property and violent) crime in 2021/22 came to the attention of the police. This proportion has fallen from 38% in 2008/09 and 40% in 2019/20. It is estimated that 27% of property crimes were reported to the police in 2021/22, compared to 34% of violent crimes – showing a smaller difference between the two than was seen in 2019/20. However this was closer than the difference seen between these groups in both 2014/15 and 2018/19. Further information on the reporting rates and the reasons behind non-reporting are presented in the ‘Focus on violent crime’ and ‘Focus on property crime’ chapters.

Figure 3.6: The proportion of crime reported to the police in 2021/22 is at the lowest level since 2008/09.

Base: SCJS 2008/09 (3,790); 2009/10 (3,330); 2010/11 (2,610); 2012/13 (2,290); 2014/15 (1,930); 2016/17 (860); 2017/18 (760); 2018/19 (760); 2019/20 (730); 2021/22 (640). Variables: QPOL.

When considered alongside some of the reductions in measures of confidence in the police (see Chapter 7), the drop in the proportion of crimes reported to the police in 2021/22 may signal a fall in people’s willingness to do this. However, it is important to note that this finding is based on a single year and future surveys will be required to determine if this represents a new trend. There are also additional factors which suggest some caution should be exercised in interpreting the above reduction in crimes reported to the police, including;

• given the fall in victimisation rates over the longer term, there is a smaller number of crimes experienced by people on which to base estimates of the proportion reported to the police, and therefore greater potential for volatility in the year-to-year findings
• as discussed in Chapter 1, the reference period for 2021/22 extends from November 2020 to November 2022, which includes some months that were heavily impacted by the Covid pandemic. For example, those respondents interviewed near the start of the survey year will have been asked to recall events which occurred during restrictions in place to limit the spread of infection (including mainland Scotland going into a second lockdown in January 2021). In those circumstances, it is possible that some individuals may have applied a higher threshold to whether they informed the police about a crime than in earlier years
• finally, the Recorded Crime in Scotland statistics show that the number of comparable crimes recorded by the police fell by 6% between 2019/20 and 2021/22. We might have expected to see a larger decrease within the recorded crime statistics if the proportion of crimes being reported to the police had fallen by the amount implied by the survey (from 40% to 29%). Further information on this comparison is available in Chapter 6

How did the likelihood of experiencing crime in Scotland compare to England and Wales?

Victimisation surveys take place in many jurisdictions across the world to obtain information on the relevant population’s experience of crime. However comparisons between surveys can often be challenging due to methodological differences.

That said, the SCJS is similar to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), with both surveys following on from the British Crime Survey (BCS)^[17]. Although there are some differences between the surveys, for example the coding of crimes varies between the SCJS and the CSEW to reflect the different criminal justice systems in which they operate, the overall results on the proportion of adults experiencing crime have offered a broad comparison point over the years.

Following updates to the methodology used in the CSEW to produce estimates for the volume of crime experienced by the adult population, we assess that the results on the overall victimisation rate remain broadly comparable between the two surveys. A short methodological paper is available which confirms the approach currently taken to produce crime estimates in the SCJS and its relative strengths and limitations.

Further information on the similarities and differences between the SCJS and CSEW are provided in the SCJS 2021/22 Technical Report.

Looking at the overall crime victimisation rates and the closest comparable survey periods^[18], the proportion of adults in Scotland estimated to have experienced crime was similar to that in England and Wales (10.0% compared to 10.4%). This differs from the position in 2019/20 where adults in Scotland were less likely to have experienced crime, with 11.9% being victims compared to 13.3% in England & Wales. However, as shown by Figure 3.7 the prevalence rate has been lower in Scotland in the past. It will be important to continue monitoring these figures going forward.

Figure 3.7: Victimisation rates in Scotland and England & Wales have both fallen over the long term to similar levels in the latest comparable period.

SCJS prevalence – Base: 2008/09 (16,000); 2009/10 (16,040); 2010/11 (13,010); 2012/13 (12,050); 2014/15 (11,470); 2016/17 (5,570); 2017/18 (5,480); 2018/19 (5,540); 2019/20 (5,570); 2021/22 (5,520). Variable: PREVSURVEYCRIME.

CSEW prevalence – Base: Year ending December 2022 (26,621).