Scottish economic bulletin: February 2025

Output

Economic output contracted in the three months to November 2024, following stronger growth earlier in the year.

• Scotland's GDP fell 0.3% in the three months to November (UK: 0.0%) with the pace of contraction accelerating from the three months to October (-0.1%).
• The fall in output follows stronger growth earlier in 2024. Over the year as a whole (3-months to November annual growth) Scotland's GDP has grown 1.2% (UK: 1.0%) and continues to indicate that Scotland's GDP growth during 2024 has been notably stronger than in 2023.^[1]

• The fall in output over the three months to November was driven by a fall in Production output (‑3.5%). This is the sharpest fall in 3-monthly Production output since October 2021 and is down 2.1% over the year. This is partly driven by a drop in Manufacturing output which fell 2.8% in the three months to November and by 0.9% over the year, however there have also been falls across mining and quarrying, electricity and gas supply and water supply and waste management industries.
• The fall in output was partially offset by further positive growth in the Services (0.2%) and Construction (0.2%) sectors. The growth in construction output continued the recent trend of positive growth during the second half of 2024, albeit the pace of growth has eased from the third quarter and output has fallen 0.1% over the year.
• Service sector growth remained softer than in the first half of the year, though was strongest in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical services, with growth strengthening to 2.4% in the 3-months to November. This offset falls in output in Administrative and Support services (-1.8%), and Information and Communication (‑1.0%). Furthermore, output fell in wholesale, retail, and motor trades (-0.1%) and was flat in Accommodation and Food Services (0.0%). However, consumer facing services as a whole continued to grow (0.2%), albeit to a lesser extent than stronger growth rates earlier in the year.