Scottish economic bulletin: October 2023

Output

Scotland's GDP growth remains subdued going into the second half of the year.

• Scotland's GDP grew 0.1% in July 2023 (UK: -0.5%), however more broadly fell 0.1% over the 3-months to July.^[1] This followed a fall of 0.3% over the 3-months to June, reflecting that the growth at the beginning of the year has proved temporary so far.
• Overall, growth has been broadly flat since the start of 2022 as consumer and business activity have been progressively impacted by inflationary pressures and rising interest rates.

• At a sector level, the fall in output over the 3-months to July has been driven by the production sector (-1.2%) with a further fall in manufacturing output (-0.3%), offsetting 0.1% growth in both the services and construction sectors.

• Within the services sector, growth picked up in the health, education and public services sectors (0.8%) however fell 0.1% in consumer facing services with retail output falling 1.9%, offsetting growth in sectors such as accommodation and food services (0.3%) and arts, culture and recreation (2.4%).