Scottish farm business income: annual estimates 2011-2012

2. Main Findings

2.1 Total Income from Farming (TIFF) increased by £58 million to £746 million between 2010 and 2011. This is an increase of eight per cent before inflation is accounted for and an increase of three per cent in real terms.

2.2 Initial estimates suggest that TIFF has fallen by £111 million to £635 million in 2012, a 15per cent fall before inflation is accounted for, or 19 per cent in real terms.

2.3 Within TIFF, outputs increased by £310 million (twelve per cent) from £2.49 billion in 2010 to £2.80billion in 2011, but reduced by £20 million (one per cent) to an estimated £2.78 billion in 2012.

2.4 Costs rose £252 million (ten per cent) from £2.41 billion in 2010 to £2.66 billion in 2011, and by an estimated £46 million (two per cent) to £2.71 billion in 2012.

2.5 The size of payments and subsidies are mainly dependent upon the euro exchange rate applied to EC farm payments. The total figure decreased only marginally in 2011, but fell by £45 million (eight per cent) from £602 million in 2011 to £557 million in 2012.

2.6 The main contributors to changes between 2010 and 2011 were

• the output value of barley increased by £80 million
• the output value of finished cattle and calves increased by £57 million
• the input cost of feedstuffs increased by £66 million.

2.7 Every year we update our initial estimates of TIFF to include more complete data. The revised trend in TIFF between 2010 and 2011 shows an increase of £58 million (eight per cent). Our original estimate published in January 2012 was a four per cent increase.

2.8 This year we have made additional revisions to the TIFF time series to reflect improvements to our estimation methodologies and sources of data; we have revised the 2010 TIFF figure up by £116 million (20 per cent) to £688 million and also revised the 2011 figure up by £150 million (25 per cent) to £746 million. Where revisions have been made, they have been applied retrospectively to ensure comparability across years. More details on these changes are available in section 3.8.

2.9 Average Farm Business Income(FBI) in 2011-12 was £45,000, a decrease of £1,000 (3 per cent) from 2010-11. The factors behind the trends seen between 2010-11 and 2011-12 are closely linked to those affecting TIFF between 2010 and 2011, though differences between the two income measures have led to a slight divergence between the trends of the two measures over the most recent period.

2.10 Over the last year there were decreases in FBI for the following farm types;

• Cereals down £2,000 to £50,000
• General Cropping down £20,000 to £50,000
• Lowland Cattle and Sheep down £7,000 to £24,000

FBI for all other farm types increased in 2011-12;

• Specialist Beef LFA up £4,000 to £37,000
• Cattle and Sheep LFA up £1,000 to £43,000
• Dairy up £6,000 to £79,000
• Mixed up £1,000 to £48,000

FBI remained stable for Specialist Sheep LFA at £29,000.