Scottish farm business income: annual estimates 2011-2012

5. Notes on TIFF

5.1 Uses of Information

The TIFF statistics are used for a wide range of purposes. The statistics help the government to form, monitor and evaluate policy, and to assess the economic well-being of the different agricultural sectors. The compilation of Scotland-level TIFF statistics is also part of the UK's requirement to submit an agricultural account to the Statistical Office of the European Communities on behalf of the UK.

Some examples detailing how the TIFF statistics are (or have been) used:

• Data from TIFF is used as part of the quarterly compilation of Scottish GDP. The TIFF statistics are also used to compile the National Accounts of the UK.
• The TIFF statistics are used frequently as part of informing briefing for Ministerial visits and events, particularly the output value of the livestock sector(s) which are used extensively across the year to set Scottish agriculture and its sectors in context. Price data for the sectors (as supplied by the markets) is also regularly updated and used to provide a picture of current market performance of these sectors.
• The TIFF statistics are also regularly used in the economic and analytical modelling of Scottish agriculture, for example, as used by the Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).

Results from the TIFF statistical publication are also used (and available to the public) in the following publications:

The Economic Report on Scottish Agriculture.

This is a compendium publication which contains detailed statistics on Scottish agriculture. It covers (i) additional statistics/analysis from the June Census e.g. more detail is provided on the structure and composition of Scottish agriculture in terms of the types of activity on holdings, additional geographic analysis is provided along with some UK comparisons (ii) Total Income From Farming (TIFF) - providing detail of the components behind the TIFF headline table that is published in January of each year. These additional tables provide more detail on volumes, prices, cash flow and productivity, and (iii) Farm Accounts Survey analysis (income and expenditure statistics by different farm types).

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Agriculture-Fisheries/PubEconomicReport

Agricultural Facts and Figures pocketbook.

This provides a useful summary of the key statistics in the Scottish agriculture and food sector in a convenient pocketbook format.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Agriculture-Fisheries/PubFactsFigures

We also use the TIFF statistics to contribute to the formulation and publication of UK statistics on agriculture. These publications are co-ordinated by DEFRA and more details are available here.

http://www.defra.gov.uk/evidence/statistics/index.htm

5.2 Methodology

The Total Income From Farming (TIFF) statistics are compiled annually by the Scottish Government's Rural & Environment Science & Analytical Services (RESAS).

There are a very large number of data series that are used in compiling the TIFF statistics. Data are collected from multiple sources, for example;

• The annual June Agriculture Census run by the Scottish Government (SG).
• The annual December Agriculture Survey run by the SG.
• Farm Accounts Survey run by the SG.
• Prices and volumes data sourced from specific market reports from the appropriate industries.
• Prices and volumes data sourced from bespoke surveys covering those run by the SG and additional separate surveys run by industry bodies such as the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), Home Grown Cereals Authority (HGCA), British Potato Council (BPC).

5.3 Data & TIFF Quality Assurance

Data used in the compilation of TIFF undergo several validation processes as follows;

• Prices checking for any obvious errors upon receipt of data, using both internal components and totals cross-checking and cross-referencing against previous years.
• Auto-checking and identifying any internal inconsistencies once loaded into the relevant TIFF modules.
• Auto-checking for any sudden changes in comparison with previous returns.
• Assessing any trends or switches in areas, volumes, prices etc. that look unreasonable.

If necessary data suppliers are contacted to ensure data are correct.

The Scottish Government also uses industry expertise to quality assure emerging agricultural statistics. For the annual release of headline farm income statistics in January, this process involves separate quality assurance meetings with representatives of the Committee of Scottish Clearing Bankers (CSCB) and with the Scottish National Farmers Union (NFUS).

These meetings are usually held about two-to-three weeks prior to the publication of the farm income statistics and involve a detailed discussion on emerging statistics and trends on all the components making up the farm income statistics. This discussion covers trends on agricultural production, prices, related costs and subsidy payments as well as on underlying methodologies used to generate the estimates. This is particularly useful for the components where data is not available for the most recent year and projections need to be made using various assumptions, indices and other information sources.

Representatives of the CSCB and NFUS have up to date and widespread knowledge of the agricultural sector, as well as access to their own information sources. This enables them to identify any questionable trends in the emerging statistics, which the Scottish Government can then investigate further and amend if necessary before the statistics are finalised and published. More fundamental comments on underlying methodologies can also be considered ahead of the following year's publication.

In addition, representatives of the CSCB and NFUS also assist the Scottish Government Statisticians in understanding the likely reasons and causes behind various trends.

These quality assurance meetings are held in strict confidence and representatives of the CSCB and NFUS both provide assurances that any emerging statistics and trends will not be used by their organisations until publication of the final statistics. It should be noted however, that many components of the farm income estimates, for example market prices, are already in the public domain.

5.4 Other Agricultural Statistics Publications

The next agricultural statistics publication due to be released is the results of the 2012 December Agricultural Survey. This surveys around 11,000 holdings and results will be published in March 2013.

Results from all Scottish Government agricultural surveys can be accessed here:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Agriculture-Fisheries/Publications