Scottish financial forecasts: FOI release

Information requested

Information on Scottish Financial Forecasts, specifically:

1. any financial forecasting/projections with the supporting workings and assumptions for government income and expenditure post independence. I assume this was done in 2014 and has possibly been updated since;
2. also is there a bridging analysis between the current status within the union and the position post independence. Could you send a copy through please?; and
3. could you also send through any reports that consider the case for independence that focus on the financial dimensions of the decision.

Response

For (1), I enclose a copy of some of the information you requested on financial forecasting/projections from 2014. This information is contained in the Outlook for Scotland's Public Finances and the Opportunities of Independence (webarchive.org.uk). I also enclose as Attachment 1 the accompanying methodology note referred to on the webarchive.org.uk site (the link to the methodological note is broken on the site).

While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have some of the information you have requested in relation to updated forecasts since 2014. As set out in Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), given the uncertainty over the outlook for the global, UK, and Scottish economies, and future fiscal and economic policy decisions by the UK and Scottish governments prior to independence, the publication does not present an estimate of the starting fiscal position of an independent Scotland. This is a formal notice under section 17(1) of FOISA that the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested.

For (2), while our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have some of the information you have requested in relation to bridging analysis, for the reasons set out above. This is a formal notice under section 17(1) of FOISA that the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested.

For (3), in addition to the Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence report referred to above, reports that consider the case for independence that focus on the financial dimensions of the decision are available on the Scottish Government website and web archive:

• Scotland's Future : Your Guide to an Independent Scotland. Scotland's Future - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
• Outlook for Scotland’s Public Finances: Outlook for Scotland's Public Finances and the Opportunities of Independence (webarchive.org.uk)

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at http://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

FOI - 202200331744 - Annex

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2 page PDF

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