Migration Advisory Committee Call for evidence - impact of ending freedom of movement on the adult social care sector: Scottish Government response

Section 3: Scotland's Population

In order to consider fully the impact of the ending of free movement on the social care sector, it is important to consider Scotland's wider demographic circumstances

All of Scotland's population growth is due to come from inward migration. There is no natural growth projected, with more deaths than births projected in each year going forward (Figure 1). It is, therefore, essential that we grow our working age population to support our economy and society now and into the future as people live for longer.

In 2019, the Scottish Government's Expert Advisory Group on Population and Migration published it's paper "UK Immigration Policy After Leaving the EU Impacts on Scotland's Economy, Population and Society"^[8]. This paper showed how migration from EU countries has accounted for a significant portion of overseas immigration over the past decade. Most EU citizens come to Scotland to work, and have higher employment rates than UK nationals; and are on average younger than the UK population. EU citizens work in a range of sectors, and comprise a substantial share of Scotland's employment in sectors such as, accommodation and food services, manufacturing, and administrative and support services.

EU migration since the 2000s has been widely distributed across all areas of Scotland. While cities enjoy a higher share of immigration, rural and remote areas have also seen a substantial rise in immigration. This was enabled by the free movement framework, which allowed flexible patterns of movement and employment for EU citizens. The absence of a skills threshold also meant that EU citizens filled lower-skilled jobs in areas such as agriculture, tourism, manufacturing, health and social care, across Scotland.

The Scottish Government's Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population has estimated that the impact of the UK Government's immigration proposals on Scotland will be a 50 to 80% reduction in net migration from the EU, and an overall reduction in overseas net migration of 30 to 50%^[9]. Further analysis by the Group has identified that very few jobs would meet the proposed salary threshold in several key sectors in Scotland, including agriculture and social care, raising the prospect of significant labour shortages. The plans are likely to have a particularly severe impact on migration to rural areas of Scotland that already face significant demographic and economic challenges^[10].

Of all non-British nationals living in Scotland in 2020, 247,000 (61%) were EU nationals^[11]. Net migration of EU nationals to the UK fell from 207,000 in the year ending March 2016 to 58,000 in the year ending March 2020. The number of EU citizens leaving the UK was 89,000 in the year ending March 2016, and 137,000 in the year ending March 2020^[12]. In addition, although it cannot be broken down into citizenship, moves from Scotland to overseas were 11,600 higher (59%) in the year to 30 June 2020 than the previous year^[13].

The UK immigration system does not recognise the significant demographic differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK. The UK Government have declined calls for a regional model of migration control and instead promote the new immigration system as able to provide for the whole of the UK. The Scottish Government is clear that a system which fails to deliver for Scotland cannot be described as meeting the needs of all of the UK. The current immigration system is therefore failing even by the standards set by the UK Government. The immigration system must reflect Scotland's distinct demographic, economic and social challenges. On 27 January 2020, the Scottish Government published a policy paper showing how devolution of migration could work, within a UK framework. Scotland has the right conditions for a tailored approach in the form of a Scottish Visa, tied to the Scottish tax code^[14]. (should we reference here?)