The Scottish Government's Digital Influence

Literature Review

Aims of the literature review

23. This literature review is part of a series of conversations between the Scottish Government and the DIIL team on how the Scottish Government can best leverage its digital assets. It maps understanding of digital influence in the Scottish Government based on an overview of their currently articulated strategic aims, goals, and practices. It focuses on how digital influence can contribute to Scotland's international influence and engagement in bilateral and multilateral contexts. Given this policy emphasis, it is framed through the lens of digital diplomacy: '...the use of digital information communication technologies, such as the Internet, to achieve diplomatic objectives".^[6] It also contextualises the Scottish Government's current approach by drawing on recent relevant academic research and grey material on the role of digital influence in international relations.

Context: what is digital influence?

24. For the purpose of this report, we will use the following as the definition for Digital Influence: "The ability to cause effect, change behaviour, and drive measurable outcomes online."^[7]

25. There are three main conceptual cornerstones of digital influence^[8]:

25.1 Reach: How far information will travel across the social continuum. More salient topics will travel farther;

25.2 Relevance: Alignment to interests of the moment. Relevance is situation sensitive; what is relevant to someone in one context or point in time is quite different to what is relevant in other contexts or later in time; and

25.3 Resonance: The ripple effect of information. It determines how long a conversational thread will remain topical or how many people feel compelled to offer their opinion in the matter.

26. These three considerations must be in place to describe digital influence but that is not enough. True digital influence must also contribute to some sort of change or effect, depending on how resonance is operationalised.^[9]

27. The nature of this change is identified by Rogers as operating at three levels^[10]:

27.1 Attracting attention and connections in a fashion characterised by Jenna Wortham in The New York Times as "success theater"^[11], that is showing others that you are successful (which has similarities to virtue signaling);

27.2 Building productive networks which refers to connective value, where worthwhile ties are forged. How individuals or entities are situated in networks affects their influence; and

27.3 Capturing and propagating trends, and going beyond that to define issues, set agendas, and shape policy trajectories, by identifying individuals (or organisations) who influence cohorts with their interests or activities.^[12]

28. We would add an additional measure:

Digital Impact: The effect in, practice, of digital influence on the attitudes and behaviours of individuals, organisations, businesses.

How digital influence works in international relations

29. The origins of the internet are rooted in the international environment of the Cold War, when both the United States and the Soviet Union built rival supercomputers. After the launch of the Soviet Satellite Sputnik 1 in 1957, the US recognised the need for a communications system that would connect these supercomputers and could not be affected by a Soviet nuclear attack. The first message was sent over the ARPANET in October 1969. The internet has since grown into a world-wide broadcasting capability, a mechanism for information dissemination, and a medium for collaboration and interaction between individuals and their computers without regard for geographic location.^[13]

30. Westcott identified early on that the internet was having a profound impact on international relations thanks to its ability, along with the IT systems it connects, to allow an enormous increase in people's ability to communicate both one-to-one and one-to-many.^[14] This increase partly came about due to the low entry costs of digital communications. In effect, anyone with broadband access could publish to the Internet at close to zero cost. This contributed to the rise of multiple non-state actors, 'the power of organizing without organizations'^[15] and facilitated the rise of the post-truth condition, facilitating the ways in which positions taken and propagated using social media contribute to the polarisation of positions, exacerbate ideological tensions and highlight geopolitical power struggles.^[16]

31. Today, the most high-profile way in which digital technology impacts on international relations is through the practice of digital diplomacy, sometimes referred to as "international change management" ¹⁷, a term which suggests that the use of digital tools provides a unique way for diplomats, foreign ministries, and others involved in international relations, to proactively listen, and respond to, changes in the international system. It is not just the high-profile positioning or the more performative aspects of digital diplomacy that matter, but the everyday presence, consistency of image, messaging and policy practice, the community built, and the resonance and attachment created, that underpin its practice.

32. The term is used by academics alongside other terms such as: "e-Diplomacy", "cyber Diplomacy", "net diplomacy", "#diplomacy", "diplomacy 2.0", "public diplomacy 2.0", "networked diplomacy", "real-time diplomacy", "21st-century statecraft", "diplomacy in the digital age", "digitalisation of diplomacy", or "digidiplomacy", yet each term shares a common perspective: the use of digital information communication technologies, such as the Internet, to achieve diplomatic objectives.

The Scottish Government's current strategic aims, goals, and practices (the publicly available baseline)

33. There is a lack of academic research on the role of digital technology in Scotland's international engagement. While there are numerous articles on Scotland and digital health, education, and the environment, the most relevant topics that have been considered to date are digital nation branding^[18] and research into social media and its impact on the constitutional debate.^[19] From the digital influence point of view, local history is the subject of far more research interest than contemporary international relations. In terms of practical research, although a British Council report on Scotland's Soft Power commented favourably on Scotland's digital diplomacy, its coverage was too limited to be useful for the purposes of this report.^[20] This review, therefore, focuses on the following policy documents and initiatives which relate to Scotland's international engagement and to Scotland's digital ambitions.

International Framework (2017)

34. Scotland's International Framework sets out how the Scottish Government's international work supports the central purpose of creating a more successful country. The Framework aims to: "...influence the world around us on the issues that matter most in helping Scotland flourish."^[21]

35. The Framework contains goals which a competence in digital influence would support, especially those that call for greater ability to engage globally, and participation in international learning and exchange. Improved digital influence capacity and capability would also support business objectives, those relating to international perceptions of Scotland, digital connectivity, and bilateral and multilateral relationships. Indeed, an explicit strategic approach to digital influence would support all the objectives of the Framework.

Scotland is Now (2018)

36. Scotland is Now is a campaign which aims to: '...put Scotland in the international spotlight and showcase the country's world-leading assets to a global audience.'^[22] Its aim is to promote Scotland: 'Attracting more migrant talent, international students, expanding overseas businesses and high-spend tourists will grow Scotland's economy and further cement its reputation as an open, diverse and welcoming country.'

37. The campaign is a partnership between the Scottish Government, VisitScotland, Scottish Development International and Universities Scotland. The partners combine all or part of their existing international marketing spend (£6 million) to deliver 'Scotland is Now' which includes online, cinema and press advertising, social media assets and the web portal Scotland.org.

Enabling Digital Government (2019)

38. Following these international initiatives, and in addition to them, there is a significant body of work on digital government. Audit Scotland's 'Enabling Digital Government' report called for effective strategic leadership to encourage and promote digital government.^[23] It also identified a gap in current policy: 'The Scottish Government does not have a complete picture of what has been achieved across the public sector so far (in digital government), including which actions have had the most impact and where there are gaps in progress. And it does not know how much public money is being invested across the public sector to achieve the strategy's actions, or what is needed to fully deliver on its ambition. This means it cannot properly prioritise the work that will make the biggest impact on public services and learn from experience.'^[24]

A changing nation: how Scotland will thrive in a digital world (2021)

39. The strategy states that: "For Scotland to thrive in this digital world, our response must embrace three key opportunities: designing and implementing technology in a secure, efficient and user centred way, realising the potential of data to improve services, increase efficiency and deliver better outcomes, and transforming our culture and the way we work through digital thinking, with its emphasis on openness, networking and agility." ^[25]

40. The following paragraphs explicitly state three ambitions relevant to international relations, which are:

40.1 That Scotland wishes to be recognised throughout the world as a vibrant, inclusive, greener, open and outward-looking digital nation;

40.2 That Scotland needs to find new ways of ensuring that post EU-Exit it remains an attractive destination for talent and investment; and

40.3 That Scotland's digital technologies' sector and wider economy succeed in an increasingly interdependent world.

41. These aims are very similar to the aims of Scotland is Now and can be related to Roger's three levels of change (see paragraph 4 above):

41.1 Attraction: the desire for Scotland to be a destination for talent and investment, and to shape peoples' perceptions – Wortham's 'success theatre';

41.2 The need for productive networks to support economic growth in an interconnected world; and

41.3 Impact on decision-making: change priorities at the individual level in relation to work location, study, or tourism, and at the corporate or business level in relation to investment.

42. These three levels will have a different significance in a post-COVID world, especially in relation to issues such as remote working and distance education.

43. The aims of the strategy include identifying the potential of digital technology in the international domain, supporting exports, working in new ways, personalising services (that could be offered globally, for example to the Scottish diaspora), tackling global issues such as climate change and supporting international connections and engagement.

A Fairer, Greener Scotland: Programme for Government 2021-22

44. The Programme for Government has international ambitions. It states that "Scotland is a proudly internationalist nation and we will embrace the opportunities of international connection and cooperation, acting as a good global citizen to champion our values‑based approach on the world stage, starting at home by ensuring that we are a truly participatory democracy".^[26]

45. There are specific plans to:

45.1 Maintain friendships with European neighbours in the aftermath of EU Exit and seek to re‑join the European Union;

45.2 Reconstitute a Ministerial working group on Policy Coherence for Sustainable Development to align domestic policy objectives and activity with international development objectives;

45.3 Invest more in International Development, including support for African partner countries with their response to COVID-19;

45.4 Sustain the Humanitarian Emergency Fund;

45.5 Support our internationally recognised culture sector with the funding needed to make a strong recovery from COVID-19;

45.6 Showcase Scotland internationally through our Brand Scotland collaboration and campaigns, raising Scotland's international profile, and hosting major events like the inaugural UCI Cycling World Championships in 2023; and

45.7 Strengthen diplomatic ties and international presence.

46. Many of the commitments in the Programme for Government, such as those to "reaffirm diplomatic ties, improve global networks, enhance international communications activity, and unlock new economic and trading opportunities", will require the use of both traditional and digital means, but this presents challenges. Digital diplomacy alone is not the answer, though it is essential. It should be noted that digital diplomacy is about both outcomes and processes. Success is not only defined by the impact of digital diplomacy but on how well its practice evolves, especially how successfully practitioners work in the absence of face to face contact, and develop ways to build the personal and social relationships and norms that traditional practice depends on.^[27]

Impact of digital influence on bilateral relations

Digital influence and bilateral relations

47. Digital diplomacy exists at two levels: the national and at the level of local representations such as Scotland's network of international offices around the world. By operating at these two levels, especially in bilateral relationships where the unique characteristics of local audiences with regard to history, culture, values and traditions are known, countries can tailor their policy and nation-branding messages. This facilitates the acceptance of their communications and the image they aim to promote.^[28]

Scotland's current bilateral engagement strategies

48. The Scottish Government website refers to: "...working with countries and institutions across the world to strengthen our international relationships, increase our trade and investment, and ultimately achieve our overarching objective of sustainable economic growth in Scotland."^[29]

49. Scotland's bilateral relations with other countries have to align with the constitutional competencies of the Scottish Government and of the other countries.^[30] Scotland's bilateral relations are formalised through engagement strategies with a range of countries including the USA, China, and India. Scotland also engages bilaterally in the context of the European Union and through processes such as the Scottish-Arctic dialogue.

50. The aims of the US Engagement Strategy require outcomes where digital influence can be crucial (see paragraph 18): raised awareness, national promotion, support for networks, knowledge exchange, diaspora engagement. These support the Scottish Government's overall aim "To influence the world around us on the issues that matter most in helping Scotland".^[31] The strategy does not, however, include any reference to the potential of digital to support delivery of its aims.

51. The other bilateral engagement strategies for China, Canada, India, and Pakistan follow a similar pattern – they identify priority areas for engagement, many of which could be supported through a strategy for digital influence, but the published documents do not refer explicitly to whether the mechanisms for delivery include a digital component, with the exception of social media campaigns such as the promotion of gender equality in China. The same observation could be made of the work of Scotland's international offices in Berlin, Brussels, Dublin, London, Ottawa, and Paris.

52. Digital does play a role in more recent strategy documents, perhaps reflecting the turn to the digital during the pandemic. The review of Irish-Scottish relations (2021) identifies specific areas of cooperation on digital initiatives through the Scottish-Irish Health Forum, and through the development of online cultural events at festivals during the pandemic.^[32] While these are examples of cooperation enabled by digital technology, there are other areas of these strategies where digital influence could assist, particularly through the development of productive networks for mutual benefit.^[33]

Impact of digital influence on Scotland's multilateral relations

Digital influence and International Organisations (IOs)

53. Digital offers new possibilities for multilateral engagement. The first online participation session in multilateral diplomacy was held by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in 1963.^[34] Today, 'Zoom diplomacy' is commonplace, accelerated by the pandemic, and even the United Nations has gone virtual.^[35]

54. The advent of digital communications technologies has transformed the ways in which IOs, such as the United Nations or the European Union, work.^[36] In particular, the use of social media both by the institutions and by the multiple actors trying to influence them has made them much more visible on the global digital stage.^[37]

55. IOs have characteristics that distinguish them. Their scale and scope mean that the number and range of those engaging with them is global and includes a vast range of stakeholders and influencers, both within the IO and outside it who have different roles, some acting as gatekeepers to flows of influence. Some of these flows are downward, from the IO to its stakeholders, some are upward, from stakeholders to the IO and some are horizontal, between parts of the IO.

56. Crucial to engagement with an IO is the establishment of channels of communication through which to convey important information, engaging in dialogue with stakeholders to persuade them to collaborate towards influencing the IO's discussions, decisions, and policies. With a few exceptions (most significantly the European Parliament), IOs lack the democratic legitimacy of national governments and therefore tend to be judged on their actions. Social media forms an important channel through which discussions on the legitimacy of IOs can take place. IOs can also use social media to raise awareness of global issues or problems and to maintain relevance and legitimacy. Countries that are small or lack resources can enhance their prestige by being present in, and central to, such global debates within the IO.

Scotland's multilateral engagement

57. The Scottish Government engages with a range of multilateral bodies, including the European Union and the Arctic Council. These are particularly relevant to a discussion of digital influence given their scale, complexity and geographies.

58. The Scottish Government has a wide range of engagement activities which target the EU, reflecting the importance of the EU to Scotland's economy, aspirations, and identity.^[38] These engagements range from intergovernmental engagement on EU Exit, to influencing specific EU programmes, to working through Scotland's Innovation and Investment Hubs in Europe to promote trade and investment.

59. The Programme for Government 2021-22 promises to strengthen Scotland's presence in Brussels and open offices in Copenhagen, "to increase Scotland's economic and cultural visibility in the Nordic regions" and in Warsaw, "as part of our continued commitment to enhancing our external reach and voice".^[39]

60. Scotland's Arctic Policy Framework (2019)^[40] is described as a "...new platform for policy and knowledge exchange" (p3) which promotes engagement with countries in the Arctic Council.^[41] Scotland aims to engage both bilaterally and multilaterally with Arctic countries and institutions and reflect and influence the priorities pursued by cooperation forums operating in the region. The Framework does not refer to digital influence as such. It is nevertheless conceived as a 'platform' and digital connectivity and knowledge exchange are recurring themes throughout the document. There is also a desire to raise Scotland's profile with the Arctic Council countries and influence the outcome of deliberation in networks and forums that are often geographically remote and dispersed.

Scotland's reputation

61. The Anholt-Ipsos Nation Brands IndexSM: 2020 Report for Scotland concluded that Scotland was maintaining its position at 17^th of 50 nations, albeit with a slight relative decline (Scotland was ranked 16^th in 2018), and was below the 1.0 point threshold for Scotland's National Indicator 'Scotland's Reputation'.^[42] This review identified Scotland's 'competitors' for digital influence as similar like-minded countries, and the UK. The 2021 Anholt-Ipsos Nation Brands Index again places Scotland at 17^th (out of 60), behind the UK (5^th), and behind comparator countries such as Sweden, Norway, New Zealand and Finland, but ahead of others, Belgium, Ireland, Wales, Northern Ireland.^[43]

Data, analytics, measuring impact

62. Holmes (2020) points out that academics are increasingly asking: What is the baseline upon which we can judge "successful" or "unsuccessful" digital diplomacy initiatives? What are the practical policy implications, and recommendations, that follow from these empirical perspectives?

63. Hicks (2021), in a literature review for UK Aid, found no sources of straightforward indicators for use in measuring diplomatic influence. It is hard to measure influence as such, so evaluations rely on intermediate goals as proxy measures for 'immeasurable' long-term influence. "Programme designers tend to design programmes to support diplomatic influence without specific and measurable objectives because influencing processes are by nature non-linear. In these cases, evaluations will be correspondingly unable to provide specific and measurable indicators of achievement". However, Digital Diplomacy opens the possibility for evaluation metrics such as the number of likes, or the content of comments on social media posts.^[44]

64. These measures are, however, critiqued by Rogers (2018) as 'vanity metrics', a term used to admonish analysts for a reliance on counting page views and likes as indicators of success.^[45] He suggests a focus instead on 'issue networks' – groups that are concerned with specific topics. He suggests that measures of dominant voice (who dominates discussion of a topic), concern (the 'issue areas' that are most concerned with the topic), commitment (engagement over time), positioning (specific articulation for or against), and alignment (the actors who are interested in the same topic but who may not be allies). In the view of DIIL, we would go further and suggest that the question is not just who has the dominant voice (the message delivery or broadcast element), but the reception and resonance of that message in different groups and across different types of individuals – whether that message results in attitudinal or behavioural shifts in practice.