The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy

This is the sixth Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) published by the Scottish Government and provides the context for the Scottish Budget and the Scottish Parliament.


Annex A: Central Resource Spending Outlook

Table A. 1: Central Resource Spending Outlook
2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28
Social Security 5,290 6,192 6,638 7,000 7,389
Health and Social Care 18,176 18,903 19,660 20,446 21,264
Local Government 10,958 11,403 11,720 12,054 12,417
Other 10,836 11,076 11,286 11,513 11,777
Total 45,260 47,575 49,304 51,013 52,846
Central funding outlook 45,260 46,535 47,917 49,415 50,971
Modelled shortfall 0 -1,040 -1,387 -1,598 -1,875
-2% -3% -3% -4%

Note on Local Government funding

The figures set out in this table reflect the funding made available to local government by Scottish Government through the combination of General Revenue Grant, including Specific Revenue Grants, and forecasts of income raised locally by Non-Domestic Rates. This only reflects c. 50% of actual expenditure by local government which is otherwise funded by service fees and charges and council tax.

Local government is subject to similar spending pressures as the rest of the public sector. Our underlying assumption therefore is that the same inflationary and pay and workforce assumptions should apply to local government as to the rest of the public sector excluding the NHS, and that we recognise that the same demographic pressures experienced by health and social care, apply to social care services delivered by local government. We have applied pay, price and social care inflation on a pro rata basis to the split of pay, social care and 'other' expenditure across local government as reported in the 2021-22 Scottish Local Government finance statistics.

The resource funding made available to local government in 2023-24 includes an additional £343 million over and above the allocation published in the 2023-24 Scottish Budget document, and a further £120.6 million (that was previously allocated as capital) from 2024-25. These reflect funding previously agreed with COSLA to support local government pay deals.

Contact

Email: sophie.osborn@gov.scot

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