The Scottish Government's Medium Term Financial Strategy

This is the fourth Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) published by the Scottish Government. The MTFS provides the context for the Scottish Budget and the Scottish Parliament.


List of figures, tables and boxes

Figure 1: Comparison of forecasts of Scottish GDP 8

Figure 2: Comparison of forecasts of Scottish unemployment rate (%) 9

Figure 3: Forecasts of Scottish / UK inflation rate (%) 10

Table 1: Headline economy forecasts 10

Figure 4: Resource funding outlook for the Scottish Government 15

Table 2: Resource funding outlook for the Scottish Government 15

Box 1: UK fiscal targets 18

Table 3: Capital grant funding outlook for the Scottish Government (excl. financial transactions) 20

Table 4: National Infrastructure Mission Baseline 22

Table 5: Illustrative cumulative paybill costs (£ billion) 27

Table 6: Current employer pension contribution rates 27

Figure 5: Proportion of people employed by the public sector: UK nations headcount (2021 Q2) 28

Table 7: Illustrative cumulative pay award and workforce costs (£ billion) 28

Figure 6: Modelled funding and spending scenarios 31

Table 8: Summary of key short-term risks to fiscal sustainability 32

Table 9: Summary of key medium- to long-term risks to fiscal sustainability 34

Figure A.1: Contribution to total NSND Income Tax liabilities by income distribution, 2019-20 55

Figure A. 2: Histogram of two simulated tax bases for two hypothetical countries 56

Table A.1: Summary statistics 56

Table A.2: Scenario 1 - uniform 2% growth in earnings across all taxpayers in country A and B 57

Table A.3: Annual growth (%) in average monthly pay of UK PAYE employees by income decile, September 2021 58

Table A.4: Scenario 2 - 2% growth in earnings for taxpayers in country A and B earning below £34,000 and 3% earnings growth for all taxpayers in country A and B earning above £34,000 58

Table A.5 Scenario 3 - 2% growth in earnings for all taxpayers in country A and B earning between £28,675 and £34,000 and 3% earnings growth for all taxpayers in country A and B earning above £34,000 or below £28,675 59

Figure A.3: Current IPC BGA mechanism 60

Figure A.4: Proposed "by band" BGA mechanism 60

Table A.6: Comparing alternative BGA indexation methods for NSND Income Tax 61

Table B.1: Forecasts of tax revenues and Block Grant Adjustments 62

table B.2: Forecasts of social security expenditure and Block Grant Adjustments (£ million) 4 63

Table B.3: Confirmed Income Tax reconciliation applying to 2022-23 Budget (£ million) 65

Table B.4: Forecast Income Tax reconciliation applying to 2023-24 Budget (£ million) 65

Table B.5: Forecast Income Tax reconciliation applying to 2024-25 Budget (£ million) 65

Table B.6: 2021-22 revenue forecast (£ million) 66

Table B.7: 2021-22 in-year BGA reconciliations (£ million) 66

Table B.8: change in net position for 2021-22 Scottish Budget (£ million) 67

Table B.9: 2020-21 final BGA reconciliation (£ million) 67

Table B.10: 2020-21 outturn compared with forecasts (£ million) 68

Table B.11: 2021-22 expenditure forecast (£ million) 68

Table B.12: 2021-22 in-year BGA reconciliation (£ million) 69

Table B.13: Change in net position for 2021-22 Scottish Budget (£ million) 70

Table B.14: Social security 2020-21 final BGA reconciliation (£ million) 70

Table B.15: 2020-21 social security outturn compared with forecasts (£ million)1 71

Table B.17: 2020-21 final BGA reconciliation (£ million) 73

Table B.18: 2020-21 outturn compared with forecasts (£ million) 73

Table B.19: Reconciliations applying to 2022-23 Budget 74

Table B.20: Capital borrowing and repayment schedule 75

Table B.21: Medium-term impact of reconciliations and resource borrowing (£ million) 76

Chart B.1: Incremental effect of different borrowing strategies on the Scottish Budget at 2022-23 Scottish Budget 77

Contact

Email: sophie.osborn@gov.scot

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