Scottish greenhouse gas emissions annual target report: 2014

Part 3 - Net Scottish Emissions Account ( NSEA) for 2014

Requirements of the Act

Section 34 of the Act requires that the report:

• state the amount of the net Scottish emissions account for the target year (subsection (3)(a)).
• state the proportion of the reduction in the net Scottish emissions account which is accounted for by reductions in net Scottish emissions (subsection (3)(b)).
• state the total amount of carbon units:
  • that have been credited to or debited from the net Scottish emissions account for the target year (subsection (3)(c)(i));
  • that have been purchased in the target year (subsection (3)(c)(ii));
  • that have been held and not surrendered in the target year (subsection (3)(c)(iii)).
• give details of the number and type of those carbon units (subsection (3)(d)).
• for each year in the period 2011-2050:
  • state the amount of the NSEA for each preceding target year (subsection (5)(a));
  • state the cumulative amount of the net Scottish emissions account for the target year and all preceding target years (subsection (5)(b)).

Amount of the Net Scottish Emissions Account for 2014

Achievement of Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions targets is measured against the level of the net Scottish emissions account ( NSEA). The NSEA is defined in the Act as the aggregate amount of "net Scottish emissions" of greenhouse gases, reduced / increased by the amount of carbon units credited to / debited from it in accordance with the Carbon Accounting Scheme Regulations made under the Act.

Table 4 provides the amount of the net Scottish emissions account in 2014, including the total amount of carbon units that have been credited to or debited from the NSEA as the result of the operation of the EU ETS in Scotland.

Table 4: Net Scottish Emissions Account for 2014 ( tCO ₂e)

Greenhouse Gas Inventory	Net Scottish emissions - see table 2 (C)	46,704,130
Carbon Units	Number of units to be credited to or debited from the NSEA - see table 6 (D)	4,818,393 credited to NSEA
NSEA	C - D	41,885,736

Based on the NSEA, Scotland's emissions fell by 12.5 per cent in 2014 on the previous year. The longer term trend to date shows a reduction of 45.8 per cent from the 1990/1995 baseline period. This means that the level of Scotland's statutory 2020 target to reduce emissions by 42 per cent from baseline levels has been exceeded, six years early .

Proportion of the reduction in the net Scottish emissions account which is accounted for by reductions in net Scottish emissions

Section 8 of the Act places a duty on the Scottish Ministers to ensure that reductions in net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases account for at least 80 per cent of the reduction in the net Scottish emissions account in any target year - the "domestic effort target". In effect, this ensures that the majority of the action to meet emission reduction targets is taken domestically, rather than by offsetting domestic emissions through the purchase of international credits.

There are two mechanisms by which carbon units can be credited to / debited from the NSEA.

i As the result of the operation of the EU Emissions Trading System ( EU ETS) in Scotland. The details of this mechanism are set out in the Annex to this report.

ii. Ministers may credit to the NSEA any international carbon units purchased by them, thereby offsetting domestic emissions. The Climate Change (Limit on Carbon Units) (Scotland) Order 2011 sets limits for the period 2013-2017 which allows Ministers the option to purchase (credit) up to 203,600 carbon units in 2014 in addition to credits or debits to the Scottish account through the operation of the EU ETS.

For the specific purpose of ascertaining whether the domestic effort target has been met, the Act stipulates that the use of carbon units through the operation of the EU ETS is treated as though it is a reduction in "net Scottish emissions".

For the purposes of the domestic effort target in 2013 and 2014, the net Scottish emissions and net Scottish emissions account are the same. This is because no units were credited to the NSEA in either of the years as a result of the purchase of international carbon units. This means that the reduction in net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases account for 100 per cent of the reduction in the net Scottish emissions account in the 2014 target year (see Table 5).

Target Year	Net Scottish Emissions	Net Scottish Emissions Account	Proportion of the change in the NSEA which is accounted for by changes in Net Scottish emissions
2013	47,885,327	47,885,327	100%
2014	41,885,736	41,885,736
Change between 2013 and 2014	-5,999,590	-5,999,590

Carbon Units credited or debited to the NSEA

Table 6 sets out the effect of the EU ETS on the NSEA in 2014. Further detail on this mechanism are set out in the Annex to this report.

Table 6: The effect of the EU ETS on the Net Scottish Emissions Account in 2014 ( tCO ₂e)

Total amount of units surrendered from fixed installations	16,842,869
Estimate of surrendered CO 2 emissions from domestic aviation	503,627
Estimate of surrendered CO 2 emissions from international aviation	1,193,028
Total estimate of surrendered emissions (E)	18,539,524
Fixed installations cap	12,356,118
Domestic aviation cap	443,255
International aviation cap	921,758
Total 2014 EU ETS cap ("Specified Amount") for Scotland (F)	13,721,131
Number of units to be credited or debited from the Net Scottish Emissions Account (E - F)	4,818,393 credited to NSEA

Table 7 sets out carbon units which have been purchased, and carbon units which have been held and not surrendered.

Table 7: Total amount of carbon units which have been purchased, and those that are held and not surrendered, 2014

	Number of Units	Type of Units
Number of carbon units purchased	0	Not applicable
Number of carbon units held and not surrendered	0	Not applicable
Amount of carbon units credited to the Net Scottish Emissions Account	0	Not applicable

Amount of the NSEA for each preceding target year and cumulative amount of the net Scottish emissions account for the target year

Table 8 sets out the amount of the net Scottish emissions account for the target year and each preceding target year. Table 8 also states the cumulative amount of the net Scottish emissions account for the target year.

Table 8: Amount of the Net Scottish Emissions Account for each target year and the cumulative amount of the Net Scottish Emissions Account for the target year ( tCO ₂e)

Target Year 2010	57,980,025
Target Year 2011	55,219,648
Target Year 2012	55,564,609
Target Year 2013	47,885,327
Target Year 2014	41,885,736
Cumulative 2010-2014	258,535,344

Adjustments to net Scottish emissions account for earlier target years and cumulative amount of the net Scottish emissions account for all preceding target years

Table 9 contains data on revisions to previously reported estimates of the net Scottish emissions account for earlier target years, together with the revised amount and reason for any revision.

Table 9: Revisions to Net Scottish Emissions Account for earlier target years ( tCO ₂e)

Target year	Net Scottish Emission Account estimate previously reported	Revision required	Revised Net Scottish Emissions Account estimate
FOR THE 1990-2011 INVENTORY
2010	54,713,907	+ 1,178,969	55,892,876
REASON FOR REVISION. This follows similar revisions to the net Scottish emissions as described in the Annual Target Report for 2011 and in the Revisions paper.
FOR THE 1990-2012 INVENTORY
2010	55,892,876	+1,323,176	57,216,053
2011	54,251,910	+1,118,036	55,369,946
REASON FOR REVISION. This follows similar revisions to the net Scottish emissions as described in the Annual Target Report for 2012 and in the Revisions paper.
FOR THE 1990-2013 INVENTORY
2010	57,216,053	+3,277,550	60,493,603
2011	55,369,946	+2,439,503	57,809,448
2012	55,665,180	+2,128,311	57,793,491
REASON FOR REVISION. This follows similar revisions to the net Scottish emissions as described in the Annual Target Report for 2013
FOR THE 1990-2014 INVENTORY
2010	60,493,603	-2,513,579	57,980,025
2011	57,809,448	-2,589,800	55,219,648
2012	57,793,491	-2,228,882	55,564,609
2013	49,724,807	-1,839,480	47,885,327
REASON FOR REVISION. This follows similar revisions to the net Scottish emissions as described in Part 2 of this report, and described in more detail in the Official Statistics Release Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2014.

Table 10 shows the revisions to the cumulative amounts of greenhouse gas emissions for preceding target years.

Table 10. Revisions to Cumulative Amounts in Preceding Target Years. All Values in tCO ₂e

TARGET YEAR	Cumulative Amount previously reported	Revision required	Revised Cumulative Amount (G)	Net Scottish Emissions Account for the Target Year (H)	New Cumulative Amount (G + H)
2010	Not Applicable	Not Applicable	Not Applicable	54,713,907	54,713,907
2011	54,713,907	+1,178,969	55,892,876	54,251,910	110,144,787
2012	110,144,787	+2,441,212	112,585,998	55,665,180	168,251,178
2013	168,251,178	+7,845,364	176,096,542	49,724,807	225,821,349
2014	225,821,349	-9,171,741	216,649,608	41,885,736	258,535,344

Chart 2 shows the impact of successive revisions to the inventory on the Net Scottish Emissions Accounts for the each of Target Years from 2010 to 2013. It also shows the Net Scottish Emissions Account in 2014.

Chart 2. Impact of successive revisions to the inventory on the Net Scottish Emissions Accounts for each of the Target Years from 2010 to 2013, and the Net Scottish Emissions Account in 2014. Values in MtCO ₂e

The fixed annual targets for 2010-2027 were set on the basis of the 1990-2008 inventory, which was the latest inventory available at the time. This estimated baseline emissions to have been 70.201 MtCO ₂e and the 2020 target was set at 40.717 MtCO ₂e, which equated to a 42 per cent reduction in line with the level of the 2020 interim target set by the Act. Successive revisions means that the reductions required to meet each of the fixed annual targets is now significantly greater than was envisaged when the targets were set. So, for example, to reach the 2020 annual target now equates to a 47.3 per cent reduction in emissions (Table 11).

Table 11. Annual Targets for the period 2010-2027

Year	Targets (in tCO 2e)	Percentage reduction against 1990 baseline when targets were set - using the 1990-2008 inventory	Percentage reduction against 1990 baseline - based on latest (1990-2014) inventory
2010	53,652,000	-23.6%	-30.6%
2011	53,404,000	-23.9%	-30.9%
2012	53,226,000	-24.2%	-31.1%
2013	47,976,000	-31.7%	-37.9%
2014	46,958,000	-33.1%	-39.2%
2015	45,928,000	-34.6%	-40.6%
2016	44,933,000	-36.0%	-41.8%
2017	43,946,000	-37.4%	-43.1%
2018	42,966,000	-38.8%	-44.4%
2019	41,976,000	-40.2%	-45.7%
2020 (year of interim target)	40,717,000	-42.0%	-47.3%
2021	39,495,000	-43.7%	-48.9%
2022	38,310,000	-45.4%	-50.4%
2023	37,161,000	-47.1%	-51.9%
2024	35,787,000	-49.0%	-53.7%
2025	34,117,000	-51.4%	-55.8%
2026	32,446,000	-53.8%	-58.0%
2027	30,777,000	-56.2%	-60.2%