Scottish greenhouse gas emissions annual target report: 2014

Part 4 - Scottish electricity consumption and generation

Requirements of the Act

Section 34 of the Act requires that the report must:

• state the amount of Scottish gross electricity consumption for the target year (subsection (4)(a)).
• state the amount of Scottish electricity generation for the target year (subsection (4)(b)).
• state the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland in the target year (subsection (4)(c)).
• state the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour, and the estimated lifetime cumulative emissions, of any new electricity generation capacity greater than 50 megawatts approved in Scotland in the target year (subsection (4)(d)).

This part of the report also fulfills the requirements of Section 38 of the Act. This requires a report in respect of each year in the period 2010-2050 that, in so far as reasonably practicable, sets out the impact on net Scottish emissions during that year resulting from the exercise by the Scottish Ministers of the functions conferred on them by virtue of any enactment relating to electricity generation.

The amount of Scottish gross electricity consumption

In 2014, gross electricity consumption in Scotland was 38,115 GWh.

The amount of Scottish electricity generation

In 2014, Scottish electricity generation was 49,929 GWh

The average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland

In 2014, the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated is 196 gCO ₂e / kWh.

Note: There are various ways of estimating the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland. In previous annual target reports, this calculation has used data from the Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory ( SPRI) which is collated by SEPA. The Scottish greenhouse gas inventory is now used for this calculation as it is the basis upon which Scotland's headline greenhouse gas statistics are estimated, and as such is consistent with other emissions data which are contained within this report. The methods used to compile the greenhouse gas inventory are consistent with international guidance on national inventory reporting from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC).

The average greenhouse gas emissions per kilowatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland is calculated using the following formula:

Total emissions from Electricity Generation are obtained from the Energy Supply Sector ("Public Electricity & Heat Production" subsector) of the Scottish Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2014. This gives a figure of 9.79 MtCO ₂e in 2014. The total output figure is taken from the amount of Scottish electricity generation for the target year, which is shown above (49,929 GWh).

Table 12 shows the emissions intensity of electricity generated in Scotland using data from the Scottish greenhouse gas inventory for the years 2010 to 2014.

Table 12. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity of Electricity Generated in Scotland ( gCO ₂e/ kWh), 2010 to 2014

Year	Total Emissions ( MtCO 2e)	Total Output ( GWh)	Emissions Intensity ( gCO 2e/ kWh)
2010	15.85	49,867	318
2011	12.12	51,170	237
2012	12.82	50,520	254
2013	11.44	52,963	216
2014	9.79	49,929	196

Estimated lifetime cumulative emissions of new electricity generation capacity greater than 50 MW approved in 2014

Due to longer-term uncertainties in the electricity market it is not possible to estimate lifetime cumulative emissions of new electricity generation capacity.

Emissions impacts are assessed at a GB level, reflecting the fact that the system is operated as a GB wide wholesale electricity market. Our approach is therefore to set out what the impact from "any new electricity generation capacity greater than 50 megawatts approved in Scotland in the target year" has on overall GB system wide carbon emissions. The approach assumes that all consented plants become operational prior to 2022, and the results specify the estimated impact on emissions in that year.

In 2014, twenty projects in Scotland were consented by Scottish Ministers after consideration under section 36 of the Electricity Act 1989. Of these, ten related to onshore wind projects (totalling 1,011 MW), eight offshore wind projects (totalling 4,150 MW), one biomass project (totalling 120 MW) and one thermal power plant (120 MW).

Results of modelling suggest that these consented projects, should they become operational, could reduce GB system wide carbon emissions by an estimated 6.5 MtCO ₂ in the year 2022. Emissions impacts of these projects are measurable at a GB level, as this is the level at which decisions from the model are made.

Impact on net Scottish emissions resulting from exercise of electricity generation related functions

Section 38 of the Act requires a report on the impact on emissions resulting from the exercise of electricity generation related functions. The report must, in so far as reasonably practicable, set out the impact on net Scottish emissions during that year resulting from the exercise by Scottish Ministers of the functions conferred on them by virtue of any enactment relating to electricity generation.

In 2014, twenty projects in Scotland were consented after consideration under section 36 of the Electricity Act 1989, with a further two projects licensed by Marine Scotland (in addition to those licensed under section 36). These additional projects were both tidal devices (totalling 0.53 MW).

As explained above, calculating the impact of consenting decisions is a complex task. The modelling results suggest that the consented projects, should they become operational, could reduce GB system wide carbon emissions by an estimated 6.5 MtCO ₂ in the year 2022.

Other information

Under Section 34(9) of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, this report may contain such other information as the Scottish Ministers consider appropriate and, in particular, may state the amount of Scottish electricity generation from each source for the target year.

Table 13 below shows Scottish electricity generation by fuel for 2014.

Table 13. Generation of electricity by fuel in Scotland ( GWh)

Coal	10,152
Oil	814
Gas	2,716
Nuclear	16,633
Thermal renewables	1,728
Other thermal	135
Hydro natural flow	5,436
Hydro Pumped Storage	494
Non thermal renewables	11,798
Wastes	22
Total	49,929