Scottish greenhouse gas emissions annual target report: 2015

Part 4 - Scottish electricity consumption and generation

Requirements of the Act

Section 34 of the Act requires that the report must:

• state the amount of Scottish gross electricity consumption for the target year (subsection (4)(a)).
• state the amount of Scottish electricity generation for the target year (subsection (4)(b)).
• state the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland in the target year (subsection (4)(c)).
• state the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour, and the estimated lifetime cumulative emissions, of any new electricity generation capacity greater than 50 megawatts approved in Scotland in the target year (subsection (4)(d)).

This part of the report also fulfills the requirements of Section 38 of the Act. This requires a report in respect of each year in the period 2010-2050 that, in so far as reasonably practicable, sets out the impact on net Scottish emissions during that year resulting from the exercise by the Scottish Ministers of the functions conferred on them by virtue of any enactment relating to electricity generation.

The amount of Scottish gross electricity consumption

In 2015, gross electricity consumption in Scotland was 36,410 GWh ^[36] .

The amount of Scottish electricity generation

In 2015, Scottish electricity generation was 51,200 GWh ^[37]

The average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland

In 2015, the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated is 151 gCO ₂e / kWh.

Note: There are various ways of estimating the average greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland. In reports prior to the 2014 annual target report (published in October 2016), this calculation used data from the Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory ( SPRI) which is collated by SEPA. From the 2014 annual target report, the Scottish greenhouse gas inventory is used for this calculation as it is the basis upon which Scotland's headline greenhouse gas statistics are estimated, and as such is consistent with other emissions data which are contained within this report. The methods used to compile the greenhouse gas inventory are consistent with international guidance on national inventory reporting from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC).

The average greenhouse gas emissions per kilowatt hour of electricity generated in Scotland is calculated using the following formula:

Emissions Intensity from Electricity = Total emissions from Electricity Generation / Total Output

Total emissions from Electricity Generation are obtained from the Energy Supply Sector ("Public Electricity & Heat Production" subsector) of the Scottish Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2015 ^[38] . This gives a figure of 7.71 MtCO ₂e in 2015. The total output figure is taken from the amount of Scottish electricity generation for the target year, which is shown above (51,200 GWh).

Table 12 shows the emissions intensity of electricity generated in Scotland using data from the Scottish greenhouse gas inventory for the years 2010 to 2015.

Table 12. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity of Electricity Generated in Scotland ( gCO ₂e/ kWh), 2010 to 2015

Year	Total Emissions ( MtCO 2e)	Total Output ( GWh) [39]	Emissions Intensity ( gCO 2e/ kWh)
2010	15.84	49,867	318
2011	12.12	51,170	237
2012	12.82	50,520	254
2013	11.44	52,963	216
2014	9.81	49,944	196
2015	7.71	51,200	151

Estimated lifetime cumulative emissions of new electricity generation capacity greater than 50 MW approved in 2015

Due to longer-term uncertainties in the electricity market it is not possible to estimate lifetime cumulative emissions of new electricity generation capacity.

Emissions impacts are assessed at a GB level, reflecting the fact that the system is operated as a GB wide wholesale electricity market. Our approach is therefore to set out what the impact from any new electricity generation capacity consented by Scottish Ministers under section 36 of the Electricity Act 1989 in the "target year" has on overall GB system wide carbon emissions. The approach includes the impact of all new electricity generation capacity irrespective of scale, which may include extensions to existing installations that take the cumulative capacity over 50 MW, and assumes that all consented plants become operational prior to 2022 ^[40] . The results specify the estimated impact on emissions in that year.

In 2015, seven projects in Scotland were consented by Scottish Ministers after consideration under section 36 of the Electricity Act 1989. Of these, six related to onshore wind projects (totalling 231 MW) and one to an offshore wind project (30 MW).

Results of modelling suggest that these consented projects, should they become operational, could reduce GB system wide carbon emissions by an estimated 0.24 MtCO ₂ in the year 2022. Emissions impacts of these projects are measurable at a GB level, as this is the level at which decisions from the model are made.

Impact on net Scottish emissions resulting from exercise of electricity generation related functions

Section 38 of the Act requires a report on the impact on emissions resulting from the exercise of electricity generation related functions. The report must, in so far as reasonably practicable, set out the impact on net Scottish emissions during that year resulting from the exercise by Scottish Ministers of the functions conferred on them by virtue of any enactment relating to electricity generation.

In 2015, seven projects ^[41] in Scotland were consented after consideration under section 36 of the Electricity Act 1989, with a further two projects licensed by Marine Scotland (in addition to those licensed under section 36). These additional projects were both tidal devices (totalling 10.5 MW).

As explained above, calculating the impact of consenting decisions is a complex task. The modelling results suggest that the consented projects, should they become operational, could reduce GB system wide carbon emissions by an estimated 0.25 MtCO ₂ in the year 2022.

Other information

Under Section 34(9) of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, this report may contain such other information as the Scottish Ministers consider appropriate and, in particular, may state the amount of Scottish electricity generation from each source for the target year.

Table 13 below shows Scottish electricity generation by fuel for 2015.

Table 13. Generation of electricity by fuel in Scotland ( GWh) ^[42]

Coal	8,306
Oil	836
Gas	1,913
Nuclear	17,763
Thermal renewables	1,861
Other thermal	207
Hydro natural flow	5,757
Hydro Pumped Storage	523
Non thermal renewables	14,009
Wastes	25
Total	51,200