Scottish Greenhouse Gas statistics: 1990-2019

Annex A: Information required for reporting under sections 33 and 34 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.

Introduction

The following sections summarise, using data from the main sections of this statistics bulletin and other sources, the information required under the requirements of sections 33 and 34 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. For ease, the information is interspersed with the wording of the requirements themselves.

Under section 33

Subsection 2 requires the report must state—

(a) the emissions reduction target for the target year

The annual emissions reduction target for 2019 is a 55.0% reduction from the baseline.

(b) whether the emissions reduction target for the target year has been met

The target has not been met.

(c) the percentage by which the net Scottish emissions account for the target year is lower than the baseline,

For the purpose of assessing progress to the 2019 target (on the basis of the 1990-2016 inventory), the net Scottish emissions account was 51.5 per cent lower in 2019 than the baseline.

(d) the amount by which the net Scottish emissions account for the target year is lower or higher than the emissions reduction target for that year

The net Scottish emissions account for 2019 was 2.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) higher than the target for that year.

(e) the cumulative amount by which the net Scottish emissions accounts are lower or higher than the corresponding emissions reduction targets, calculated by adding each amount by which an account is lower or higher than the corresponding target for each year in the period beginning with 2018 and ending with the target year.

The cumulative amount by which the net Scottish emissions accounts over the period from 2018 to the current target year (2019) was 5.7 MtCO2e higher than the targets for those years.

Subsection 3 requires the report must specify the methods used to determine each figure and amount in subsection 2 in accordance with the most up-to-date advice provided by the relevant body (the UK Committee on Climate Change) on the methods to be used for that purpose:

The figure in 2(c) above has been derived using an identical calculation to that recommended by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in their advice on the future measurement and accounting of emissions against Scotland's climate change targets^[10]. This calculation is shown below, using the 1990-2016 inventory as the reference inventory, and adjusting for cumulative revisions subsequently introduced in the 1990-2017, 1990-2018 and 1990-2019 inventories:

Year	Baseline Period 1	2016	2017	2018	2019
Inventory data
A. Base Inventory source emissions data (June 2018 data (1990-2016))	75.7	38.6	N/A	N/A	N/A
B. June 2019 source emissions data (1990-2017 inventory)	76.3	41.9	40.5	N/A	N/A
C. June 2020 source emissions data (1990-2018 inventory)	76.3	42.0	41.0	41.6	N/A
D. June 2021 source emissions data (1990-2019 inventory)	85.1	48.5	47.5	48.9	47.8
Revisions between inventories2
between A and B	0.6	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3
between B and C	- 0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.5
between C and D	8.8	6.5	6.5	7.3	7.3
Combined revision between successive inventories	9.4	9.9	10.3	11.1	11.1
GHG Account (latest inventory, less combined revision)	75.7	38.6	37.2	37.8	36.7
GHG Account figures, expressed as a percentage reduction from the baseline period.	0.0%	-49.0%	-50.9%	-50.0%	-51.5%

1. The Baseline period uses a 1995 base-year for F-Gas emissions, and 1990 for all other greenhouse gases.

2. Where data do not exist for a particular year, revisions are carried over from the previous complete year (see shaded cells)

Under section 34

All of the information under this section is reported on the basis of the most up to date available greenhouse gas inventory methods, i.e. the 1990 – 2019 inventory.

Subsection 1 requires the report must state — (a) in relation to net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases—

(i) the baseline,

The Baseline period uses a 1995 base-year for F-Gas emissions, and 1990 for all other greenhouse gases. In the 1990-2019 inventory the baseline amount of emissions was 85.1 MtCO2e.

(ii) the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases for the year covered by the report,

On the basis of the 1990-2019 inventory, net Scottish emissions in 2019 were 47.8 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

(iii) the percentage by which the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases for the year covered by the report is lower than the baseline,

On the basis of the 1990-2019 inventory, net Scottish emissions in 2018 were 43.9 per cent lower than the baseline^[11].

(iv) the percentage by which the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases for the year covered by the report is lower or higher than the equivalent amount for the immediately preceding year, and

On the basis of the 1990-2019 inventory, net Scottish emissions in 2019 were 2.3 per cent lower than in 2018.

(v) the methods used to determine the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases, together with details of any changes to those methods,

The aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions set out above has been determined from regional disaggregation of the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Full details of the methodology used in the UK Inventory, together with further breakdowns, are provided in the National Inventory Report^[12] submitted annually by the UK Government to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Of particular note in the latest greenhouse gas inventory (1990-2019) is the incorporation of substantially revised estimates of land use, land use change and forestry emissions. These revisions arise from a fundamental change in the scope of the UK inventory to incorporate, for the first time, the impact of historical drainage and rewetting of organic soils on net emissions. As a result of this, there has been a substantial increase in net emissions across the entire time-series, where this change in isolation has acted to raise emissions by 9.4 MtCO2e in the baseline and 7.7 MtCO2e in 2018, when compared to the 1990-2018 greenhouse gas inventory.

(b) in relation to the net Scottish emissions account—

(i) its amount for the year covered by the report,

In 2019, the net Scottish emissions account was 47.8 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

(ii) the percentage by which the account for the year covered by the report is lower than the baseline,

On the basis of the 1990-2019 inventory, the net Scottish emissions account in 2019 was 43.9 per cent lower than the baseline².

(iii) the percentage by which the account for the year covered by the report is lower or higher than the equivalent account for the immediately preceding year, and

On the basis of the 1990-2019 inventory, the net Scottish emissions account in 2019 was 2.3 per cent lower than in 2018.

(iv) the percentage of any reduction in the account for the year covered by the report, relative to the equivalent account for the immediately preceding year, which is accounted for by reductions in net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases,

All (100%) of the reduction in the net Scottish emissions account between 2018 and 2019 was accounted for by changes in net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases.

(c) the total amount of carbon units that were—

(i) credited to or debited from the net Scottish emissions account for the year covered by the report,

No carbon units were credited or debited to the net Scottish emissions account for 2019.

(ii) purchased by the Scottish Ministers in the year covered by the report, and

No carbon units were purchased by Scottish Ministers in 2019.

(iii) held by the Scottish Ministers immediately after the end of the year covered by the report and which remained available to offset greenhouse gas emissions for other target years,

No carbon units were held by Scottish Ministers immediately after the end of 2019.

(d) for each target year preceding the year covered by the report—

(i) the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases, and

Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Net GHG emissions (MtCO2e)	65.5	58.8	59.0	57.4	53.7	53.2	48.5	47.5	48.9

(ii) the amount of the net Scottish emissions account *

Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Net Scottish Emissions Account (MtCO2e)	64.4*	61.6*	61.8*	54.1*	48.8*	50.6*	51.4*	53.3*	48.9

* The figures set out here for the net Scottish emissions account for the years 2010 to 2017 are consistent with the approach used in previous statutory annual target reports and are on the basis of Scottish emissions adjusted for the operation of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 has subsequently altered the emissions accounting basis for assessing progress to targets from 2018 onwards, to remove that adjustment. As such, these earlier figures are not directly comparable to those in other columns of the table or other sections of the report.

(e) the fair and safe Scottish emissions budget, and the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases for the period from 2010 to the end of the year covered by the report.

The fair and safe Scottish emissions budget for emissions over the period 2010 to 2050^[13] is 1,240 MtCO₂e. The total amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases over the period from 2010 to 2019 is 540.2 MtCO₂e.

Subsection 3 requires that, if the methods used to determine net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases change and that change is such as to require adjustment of an amount for an earlier target year, the report must —

(3)

(a) specify the adjustment required and state the adjusted amount, and (b) explain why the adjustment is required.

The latest greenhouse gas inventory (1990-2019) contains some major revisions to previous estimates of emissions in the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry category. These revisions arise from a fundamental change in the scope of the UK inventory to incorporate, for the first time, the impact of historical drainage and rewetting of organic soils on net emissions. These changes reflect changes to international guidance of the compilation of greenhouse gas inventories arising from the IPCC wetlands supplement (2013). As a result of this, there has been a substantial increase in net emissions across the entire time-series, where this change in isolation has acted to raise emissions by 9.4 MtCO₂e in the baseline and 7.7 MtCO₂e in 2018, when compared to the 1990-2018 greenhouse gas inventory.

Other, less substantial revisions relate to routine revisions to underlying data and modelling used to construct the greenhouse gas inventory. There have been some relatively small revisions to the early part of the agriculture series', particularly those relating to beef cattle live weights, milk yields, and livestock numbers affect emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management. Waste management emissions have reduced across the whole time-series due to recalculations in Industrial Wastewater Treatment. Emissions from road transport have been revised from 2010 onwards. This is the result of updates to Department for Transport (DfT) minor roads data for these years, which has led to an increase in the estimate of vehicle-kms travelled across all vehicle types on urban and rural roads.

The combined impact of these changes has resulted in the previously published value for emissions in 2018 being raised by 7.3 MtCO₂e to the current level of 48.9 MtCO₂e.

Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
1990-2018 inventory	58.9	52.1	52.5	50.8	47.3	46.2	42.0	41.0	41.6
1990-2019 Inventory	65.5	58.8	59.0	57.4	53.7	53.2	48.5	47.5	48.9
Revision	6.6	6.6	6.5	6.6	6.4	7.0	6.5	6.5	7.3