Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2022

Introduction

The following sections summarise, using data from the main sections of this statistics bulletin and other sources, the information required under the requirements of sections 33 and 34 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. For ease, the information is interspersed with the wording of the requirements themselves.

Under section 33

 Subsection 2 requires the report must state—

(a) the emissions reduction target for the target year

The emissions reduction target for 2022 is a 53.8% reduction from the baseline.

(b) whether the emissions reduction target for the target year has been met

The target has not been met.

(c) the percentage by which the net Scottish emissions account for the target year is lower than the baseline,

For the purpose of assessing progress to the 2022 target (on the basis of the 1990-2022 inventory), the net Scottish emissions account was 50.0% lower in 2022 than the baseline.

 (d) the amount by which the net Scottish emissions account for the target year is lower or higher than the emissions reduction target for that year

The net Scottish emissions account for 2022 was 3.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) higher than the target for that year.

(e) the cumulative amount by which the net Scottish emissions accounts are lower or higher than the corresponding emissions reduction targets, calculated by adding each amount by which an account is lower or higher than the corresponding target for each year in the period beginning with 2018 and ending with the target year.

The cumulative amount by which the net Scottish emissions accounts over the period from 2018 to the current target year (2022) was 7.8 MtCO2e higher than the targets for those years.

Subsection 3 requires the report must specify the methods used to determine each figure and amount in subsection 2 in accordance with the most up-to-date advice provided by the relevant body (the UK Climate Change Committee) on the methods to be used for that purpose:

The figure in subsection 2(c) above has been derived using an identical calculation to that recommended by the Climate Change Committee (CCC) in their advice on the future measurement and accounting of emissions against Scotland’s climate change targets[1].   This calculation is shown below, using the 1990-2020 inventory as the reference inventory, and adjusting for cumulative revisions subsequently introduced in the 1990-2021 and 1990-2022 inventories:

Year	Baseline Period (1)	2020	2021	2022
Inventory data
A.  Base Inventory source emissions data (June 2022 data (1990-2020)) (3)	83.0	40.6	N/A	N/A
B.  June 2023 source emissions data (1990-2021 inventory)	82.0	40.6	41.6	N/A
C.  June 2024 source emissions data (1990-2022 inventory)	81.4	40.1	40.6	40.6
Revisions between inventories (2)
between A and B	-1.0	0.1	0.1	0.1
between B and C	-0.6	-0.5	-1.0	-1.0
Combined revision	-1.6	-0.4	-0.9	-0.9
GHG Account (latest inventory, less combined revision)	83.0	40.6	41.5	41.5
GHG Account figures, expressed as a percentage reduction from the baseline period.	0.0%		-49.9%	-50.0%

1. The Baseline period uses a 1995 base-year for F-Gas emissions, and 1990 for all other greenhouse gases.

2. Where data do not exist for a particular year, revisions are carried over from the previous complete year (see shaded cells)

3. Values for the base inventory use updated global warming potentials as shown in chart D4 in the June 2022 publication.  In line with international carbon reporting practice, the GWPs used in the 2024 inventory are consistent with the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5 without climate feedback effects. This change has resulted in methane moving from a GWP multiplier of 25 to 28, and nitrous oxide reducing from 298 to 265. Other changes to individual isotopes of fluorinated gases have also been made.

4. Totals may not exactly equal the sum of components due to rounding.

5. The GHG Account for 2020 is shown in Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2020 published in June 2022

 

Under section 34

All of the information under this section is reported on the basis of the most up to date available greenhouse gas inventory methods, i.e. the 1990 – 2022 inventory.

Subsection 1 requires the report must state — (a) in relation to net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases—

(i) the baseline,

The Baseline period uses a 1995 base-year for F-Gas emissions, and 1990 for all other greenhouse gases. In the 1990-2022 inventory the baseline amount of emissions was 81.4 MtCO2e.

(ii) the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases for the year covered by the report,

On the basis of the 1990-2021 inventory, net Scottish emissions in 2022 were 40.6  MtCO2e.

(iii) the percentage by which the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases for the year covered by the report is lower than the baseline,

On the basis of the 1990-2022 inventory, net Scottish emissions in 2022 were 50.1 % lower than the baseline.

(iv) the percentage by which the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases for the year covered by the report is lower or higher than the equivalent amount for the immediately preceding year, and

On the basis of the 1990-2022 inventory, net Scottish emissions in 2022 were 0.1% lower than in 2021.

(v) the methods used to determine the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases, together with details of any changes to those methods,

The aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions set out above has been determined from regional disaggregation of the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Full details of the methodology used in the UK Inventory, together with further breakdowns, are provided in the National Inventory Report[2] submitted annually by the UK Government to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).  This latest release includes the following revisions to previous calculations:

Agriculture

The most significant recalculations for stationary combustion in agriculture are from burning oil combustion which are due to revisions in the UK inventory. This relates to an improvement in the resolution of oil combustion data which now differentiate the sector using these fuels.

Buildings and product uses

Revisions to natural gas combustion due to:

incorporation of the new data which relate to actual gas consumption rather than weather corrected data.

Revisions to the Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES) for the later portion of the timeseries and to incorporate point source data into methodology.

The most significant recalculations are from the combustion of burning oil, gas oil and coal, with the latter two only impacting the later portion of the timeseries and mainly affect commercial combustion.

Domestic Transport

Recalculations to road transport from revisions to the activity data and a more appropriate fuel consumption split between hot and cold-start emissions. In addition there have been revisions to the Non-Road Mobile Machinery data which now differentiate between vehicle types.

Electricity supply

Recalculations are primarily due to revisions to DUKES data in 2020 and 2021.

Fuel supply

Recalculations are primarily due to revisions to DUKES data in later years and also small recalculations across the timeseries due to a revision to the model used to split emissions from abandoned coal mines to UK Nations.

Industry

Revisions to Non-Road Mobile Machinery which now differentiate between vehicle types.

Most significant recalculations from gas combustion in industry.

Recalculations between 2016-2021 from a revision to DUKES.

Revisions due to the incorporation of the new data which relate to actual gas consumption rather than weather corrected data.

The most significant recalculations are from the combustion of burning oil, gas oil and coal, with the latter two only impacting the later portion of the timeseries.

LULUCF

The largest recalculations for forest land were the inclusion of new data to the forest land carbon stock change soil model and inclusion of urban trees across the whole timeseries.

For grassland, there were minor changes to peatland restoration areas in Scotland from Peatland Action including the addition of restoration areas for domestic peat extraction.

Waste

Recalculation to landfill emissions in 2021 in Scotland due to adjustment in landfill gas data regional statistics.

For composting there was a revision to the compositing data timeline provided by UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology affecting the national inventory

(b) in relation to the net Scottish emissions account—

(i) its amount for the year covered by the report,

In 2022, the net Scottish emissions account was  40.6 MtCO2e.

(ii) the percentage by which the account for the year covered by the report is lower than the baseline,

On the basis of the 1990-2022 inventory, the net Scottish emissions account in 2022 was 50.1 % lower than the baseline.

 (iii) the percentage by which the account for the year covered by the report is lower or higher than the equivalent account for the immediately preceding year.

On the basis of the 1990-2022 inventory, the net Scottish emissions account in 2022 was 0.1 % lower than in 2021.

 (iv) the percentage of any reduction in the account for the year covered by the report, relative to the equivalent account for the immediately preceding year, which is accounted for by reductions in net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases,

All (100%) of the reduction in the net Scottish emissions account between 2021 and 2022 was accounted for by changes in net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases.

(c) the total amount of carbon units that were—

(i) credited to or debited from the net Scottish emissions account for the year covered by the report,

No carbon units were credited or debited to the net Scottish emissions account for 2022.

(ii) purchased by the Scottish Ministers in the year covered by the report, and

No carbon units were purchased by Scottish Ministers in 2022.

(iii) held by the Scottish Ministers immediately after the end of the year covered by the report and which remained available to offset greenhouse gas emissions for other target years,

No carbon units were held by Scottish Ministers immediately after the end of 2022.

(d) for each target year preceding the year covered by the report—

(i) the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases.

Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Net GHG emissions (MtCO2e)	64.1	57.0	57.4	55.4	51.6	51.2
Year	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Net GHG emissions (MtCO2e)	46.1	45.3	46.5	45.8	40.1	40.6

(ii) the amount of the net Scottish emissions account *

Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Net Scottish Emissions Account (MtCO2e)	64.4*	61.6*	61.8*	54.1*	48.8*	50.6*
Year	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Net Scottish Emissions Account (MtCO2e)	51.4*	53.3*	46.5	45.8	40.1	40.6

* The figures set out here for the net Scottish emissions account for the years 2010 to 2017 are consistent with the approach used in previous statutory annual target reports and are on the basis of Scottish emissions adjusted for the operation of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 has subsequently altered the emissions accounting basis for assessing progress to targets from 2018 onwards, to remove that adjustment. As such, these earlier figures are not directly comparable to those in other columns of the table or other sections of the report.

(e) the fair and safe Scottish emissions budget, and the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases for the period from 2010 to the end of the year covered by the report.

The fair and safe Scottish emissions budget for emissions over the period 2010 to 2050[3] is 1,028 MtCO₂e. The total amount of net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases over the period from 2010 to 2022 is 641.8 MtCO2e.

 Subsection 3 requires that, if the methods used to determine net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases change and that change is such as to require adjustment of an amount for an earlier target year, the report must  —

(3)

(a) specify the adjustment required and state the adjusted amount, and  (b) explain why the adjustment is required.

The latest greenhouse gas inventory (1990-2022) contains some relatively minor revisions to previous estimates of emissions, these mainly relate to revisions to energy data and availability of more detailed data on the use of fuel oil.  These revisions are listed in more detail in section 34 (v).

The combined impact of these changes has resulted in the previously published value for emissions in 2021 being decreased by 1.0 MtCO2e to the revised level of 40.6 MtCO2e.