Scottish Housing Market Review Q1 2024
Quarterly bulletin collating a range of previously published statistics on the latest trends in the Scottish housing market.
2. House Prices
2.1. Scottish House Price Performance: National
Source: Registers of Scotland, UK HPI (Scotland)
Average house prices in Scotland, as measured by the UK House Price Index (HPI), increased annually by 1.2% in Q4 2023. This is higher than the growth rate for the previous three quarters but remains lower than the UK HPI average recorded since 2010 (2.7%). The average property price (mix-adjusted, geometric mean) in Scotland stood at £189K in Q4 2023. More recent data for January suggests that annual house price inflation (at 4.8%) remains in positive territory.
Registers of Scotland data shows that the average (arithmetic mean) house price in Scotland fell by 0.9% to £219K in the year to Q4 2023. Registers of Scotland data is not mix-adjusted, so it will be affected by the composition of properties sold.
UK HPI data shows that annual house price growth in Q4 2023 was highest for detached properties (2.3%), while terraced houses increased the least (0.3%).
2.2. Scottish House Price Performance by Dwelling/Buyer Type
Chart 2.2 shows the rate of change in the average new and existing build property prices in Scotland. This data is published with a lag relative to the headline HPI. In Q3 2023, the average Scottish new-build property price increased to a greater extent than the existing build price, rising by an annual 8.1% to £295K. The average existing build price decreased over the year, falling by 1.2% to £185K.
Source: UK HPI (Scotland)
The UK HPI also shows that the average price of a property bought by former owner occupiers in Scotland increased by an annual 1.9% in Q4 2023, to £232K. Meanwhile, the average price of a property purchased by a first-time buyer increased by an annual 0.8% in Q4 2023, to £152K.
2.3. Scottish House Price Performance: Local Authorities
Table 2.1 sets out the level and annual change in quarterly house prices by local authority. The small number of sales in some local authorities, such as in the Orkney and Shetland Islands, can lead to some volatility in estimated house prices despite the HPI methodology adjusting for the mix of houses sold; therefore, the change in average house prices in the last 4 quarters compared to the preceding 4 quarters is also presented.
Looking at the four-quarter on four-quarter change, 18 of the 32 local authorities saw an increase in their average house price. The rate of increase was highest in North Lanarkshire (8.7%), while the largest decrease was in Aberdeenshire (5.9%), closely followed by the Orkney Islands (5.6%).
| Prices - Q4 2023 | Annual change – Q4 2023 | Annual change – 4 quarters to Q4 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen City | £133,895 | -2.6% | -5.9% |
| Aberdeenshire | £197,710 | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| Angus | £169,210 | -0.3% | -0.9% |
| Argyll and Bute | £187,846 | -4.8% | -0.5% |
| Clackmannanshire | £170,578 | 4.6% | 0.9% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | £161,711 | -3.3% | -0.7% |
| Dundee City | £147,900 | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| East Ayrshire | £125,250 | -4.0% | -1.6% |
| East Dunbartonshire | £271,689 | 1.2% | -0.6% |
| East Lothian | £304,242 | 3.6% | 4.5% |
| East Renfrewshire | £300,228 | 7.9% | 3.1% |
| Edinburgh, City of | £326,144 | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Falkirk | £167,134 | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Fife | £173,480 | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| Glasgow City | £173,865 | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Highland | £208,773 | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Inverclyde | £124,831 | 1.1% | 1.7% |
| Midlothian | £235,288 | 3.3% | 2.9% |
| Moray | £191,505 | 1.8% | 4.4% |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | £156,857 | 6.4% | 3.6% |
| North Ayrshire | £131,113 | -1.1% | -1.4% |
| North Lanarkshire | £125,086 | 13.2% | 8.7% |
| Orkney Islands | £188,527 | -11.7% | -5.6% |
| Perth and Kinross | £237,850 | -2.2% | 0.5% |
| Renfrewshire | £156,146 | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Scottish Borders | £199,220 | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Shetland Islands | £183,894 | -12.3% | -1.5% |
| South Ayrshire | £171,692 | 0.0% | -1.3% |
| South Lanarkshire | £166,159 | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Stirling | £247,843 | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| West Dunbartonshire | £134,602 | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| West Lothian | £206,599 | -1.8% | 0.5% |
| Scotland | £188,673 | 1.2% | 0.3% |
Source: UK HPI
Contact
Email: jake.forsyth@gov.scot
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