Scottish Housing Market Review: Q4 2022

9. Housing Starts & Completions

New build completions – all sectors

The most recent published Scottish Government figures for all-sector new build completions cover the period to March 2022. The next quarterly housing statistics, which will cover the period to June 2022, will be published on 24^th January 2023.

There were 20,767 new build completions across all sectors in Scotland in the year to end Q1 2022, an increase of 39.7% (5,900 homes) on the previous year, when activity levels were affected by Covid-19 related lockdown measures. This is outlined in Chart 9.1, which includes the breakdown of new build completions by sector. Meanwhile, there were 18,672 new build starts across all sectors in the year to end Q1 2022, up by an annual 5.1% (914 homes). However, activity remains below the pre-pandemic level of 22,124 completions and 25,491 starts in the year to end March 2020.

Source: Scottish Government

Source: UK HPI (Scotland)

The UK HPI includes private new build sales data, which provide a more up-to-date picture of the latest trends in housebuilding activity. As Chart 9.2 shows, while private new build sales decreased during the restrictions on non-essential construction activity in Q2 2020, falling by 85% annually in May 2020, there has been a strong recovery since then, with an increase in private new build sales on a rolling one year basis to August 2022 of 4.4%. Private new build sales were also up by 2.0% relative to the one-year period to August 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Chart 9. outlines the growth in new build completions and starts for all sectors by region over the one year period to Q1 2022, relative to the year prior. New build completions increased for the majority of regions shown, with the largest increase seen in Aberdeen/shire and Moray (+72.5%), whilst there was a small decrease in the Forth Valley of 3.3%. With respect to all sector new build starts, the picture was more varied by region, with the largest increase found in Aberdeen/shire and Moray (+38.7%), whilst the largest decrease was found in the Ayrshires and Dumfries & Galloway (-40.5%).

Source: Scottish Government

Affordable Housing Supply Programme

Chart 9. shows the supply of affordable housing has increased since the restrictions on non-essential construction activity were eased in Q3 2020. 9,334 affordable housing completions were recorded over the one year to Q2 2022, an increase of 17.1% compared to the year prior. However, over the same period approvals have fallen slightly by 2.5% to 7,775, whilst starts have decreased by 34.8% to 7,287. (Source: SG). Figures for Q3 2022 will be published on 24^th January 2023.

Source: Scottish Government