Scottish Housing Market Review Q4 2024

10. Housing Supply

For a broader analysis of the latest housing supply data, which includes information on the geographical distribution of new build and affordable housing supply across local authorities, visit the Housing Statistics for Scotland webpage.

10.1. New Build

The downward trend in all-sector new-build completions, which began in Q2 2023, extended into Q3 2024. Latest data shows that all-sector new-build completions for the year to September 2024 totalled 19,828, 2,324 (‑10%) fewer than the year to September 2023. Over the same period, all-sector new build starts fell by 1,954 (_‑12%) to 14,768.

In the year to September 2024, the number of homes completed in the private sector was 15,056, 673 (-4%) fewer than the corresponding period the year before and the lowest since 2018. Meanwhile in the social sector, in the year to September 2024, the number of homes completed was 4,772, an annual decline of 1,651 (-26%) and the lowest since 2017 (analysis looks at years to end September and excludes 2020 where Covid-19 impacted housebuilding).

Source: Scottish Government

10.2. Affordable Housing Supply Programme (AHSP)

There were 8,413 affordable homes completed over the year to September 2024 which represents a decline of 22% (2,373 homes) compared to a year earlier and there were 5,925 starts which have also decreased over the same period by 8%, (514 homes). However, there was a rise in the number of affordable homes approved, in the year to September 2024, 6,682 affordable homes were approved, this was an increase of 9% (524) compared to the corresponding period in the year prior.

It was announced in the draft Scottish Budget in December 2024 that funding for the AHSP will be increased from £556m to £768m for 2025-26; in nominal terms this is an increase of 38.1%, and in real terms it is an increase of 34.6% (Based on CPI inflation forecasts from OBR).This will bring the AHSP budget into closer alignment with the budget for 2023-24 which was £752m: in real terms, the 2025-26 budget is 2.8% less than the budget for 2023-24.

Source: Scottish Government